We welcome back James, a regular contributor over at our friends WeLoveBetting, who has been a valuable member of the team there for a number of years.
This Friday he has previewed 3 matches in the English Championship.
Rotherham v West Brom
Friday, 1pm
An intriguing Good Friday clash takes place at the New York Stadium when Rotherham entertains West Brom, a match which effects both ends of the table. Only two points separates Matt Taylor’s Millers from the drop zone as they look to achieve survival in their first season back at this level, whilst for the Baggies they have a five-point gap to the final play-off place with only 24 points available before the end of the campaign.
Wins have been a problem for Rotherham in that they’ve only managed to record three of them since the start of 2023. Two of those did come in their last three home matches, and with 63% of their overall points coming in home fixtures, they’ll no doubt target a few more wins on home soil before the season concludes. West Brom also earn more points at home, and it is their away record which is why they are somewhat lagging behind in the promotion picture. It is now six without triumph on the road, including five defeats.
WBA are the more talented of the two squads and whilst they ideally need a win here they just can’t be trusted away from home at odds-on. Rotherham could get something out of this, and they’ll believe they can. They have earned points at home to the likes of Sheffield United, Millwall, Blackburn and Watford.
One angle that appeals here is the corners market, especially given how regularly these two have seen them appear in their games. West Brom are ranked number one for average number of corners on 11.18. This is because a big part of their play under Carlos Corberán involves getting the ball wide to their full backs and wingers and supply deliveries for the likes of target man Daryl Dike to attack. They are awarded just shy of seven corners per game, the highest for any one team in the Championship. Rotherham play a very direct style at home, and Taylor himself acknowledges that. It is quite a small pitch, so getting the ball back to front isn’t such a huge task. They too thrive on getting balls into the box for striker Jordan Hugill to get his head on. Rotherham play with two out-and-out wingers and expect to see them drive to the by-line at every opportunity.
Over 10.5 Corners is priced at 2.25 with Paddy Power and it is a play which logically makes a lot of sense. This has paid out in 63% of WBA’s league battles, and with Rotherham’s fixtures averaging 10.00 corners anyway, we’ll chance it for one extra corner to be recorded to see us cash in that ticket.
Reading v Birmingham
Friday, 3pm
This is another Good Friday encounter in the Championship, but it was a pretty bad Tuesday for Reading earlier this week when it was revealed they were docked six-points by the EFL after not sticking to an agreed budget, which was initially planned after previously breaking financial rules in 2021, and also having another six-point deduction. This doesn’t come as a shock to anyone at the club, but it does reduce them to now sitting just one point above the relegation zone.
Survival does at least still remain in the hands of Reading, and they’ll view this home clash with Birmingham as an opportunity to immediately claw back three points to their season tally. The one positive for boss Paul Ince is that four of their seven remaining fixtures are at home, including this one, and it is key they make the most of it given they have the worst away record in the division. They’ve haven’t lost at home to any current bottom half team.
Birmingham are a little more comfortable sitting on 48 points, but they know a couple of defeats could drag them right back into the bottom three equation. They should be fine, and winning three of their last four came at just the right time to further enhance their survival hopes. Consistency hasn’t been their strong point however, so they can’t be totally trusted to continue this run of form. A big reason for that is their results against the lesser likes in the Championship, and defeats to Cardiff (twice), Rotherham, Huddersfield and Wigan proves they have issues in these type of games.
The fact is this game got a hell of a lot more important for Reading in recent days, and they still have Burnley and Luton to face before the season ends, so winning these type of games are vital. As we mentioned, they are strong at home, and although their injury list is off-putting, their price has drifted since the point’s deduction and that presents more value in getting them on side. 1.93 is the price available in backing the Royals on the 0 Asian Handicap. Their home record against the bottom half teams is almost perfect (W7, D2).
Swansea v Coventry
Friday, 3pm
There may be more attractive fixtures on Friday’s Championship in comparison to Swansea v Coventry, but this was the first game which caught my eye from a betting perspective. Swansea find themselves in the rather average situation of not having anything to play for in the remainder of the season. Russell Martin’s team won’t make the play-offs nor will the go down, and you just fear that last weekend’s dramatic win over big rivals Cardiff might be the end of their campaign almost. They take on a Coventry team with play-off aspirations as they sit just four-points behind the top six.
Swansea do have back-to-back wins to their name, something they last managed to do in October. Following the consecutive wins on that occasion, they went on an eight-match winless run in league action. Consistency has never been their strong point, and their somewhat hit-or-miss style in home games (W8, D3, L8) makes them an especially tricky read when playing in front of their own supporters.
You could argue there is something similar about Coventry, at least in recent times. A fine 4-1 away win at Blackpool was followed up with a 4-0 home loss to mid-table Stoke last time out, and manager Mark Robins will be desperately seeking a big, big response here. He felt his side offered them too much respect by sitting off, and knowing how strong Swansea are in possession it could be another tough afternoon if they adopt a similar approach here. When the manager questions your effort, the players will want to come out and respond in the right manner, especially with promotion not ruled out.
Goals have followed Swansea all season long, and the fact only Middlesbrough and Wigan have seen more of their games contain both teams scoring proves this. Coventry are a little more reserved in that particular statistic, but that is largely their own fault. They are ranked sixth in the league for xGF (Expected Goals For), and yet they are only tenth in the division based on goals scored. They do place a big reliance on Swedish international Viktor Gyökeres to score the goals, and ideally they need more chipping in to help in that regard. Callum O’Hare has been a huge miss all season, but creating chances has never been an issue for the Sky Blues.
Goals was the initial thought here and I’m happy to keep it simple and go for Both Teams To Score at 1.80 with William Hill. If you are a little more adventurous then BTTS and Over 2.5 goals is available at 2.40, but you just never know with Coventry in front of goal.
Tips
Rotherham v West Brom – Over 10.5 Corners (2.25 Paddy Power)
Reading v Birmingham – Reading 0 Asian Handicap (1.93 Bet365)
Swansea v Coventry – Both Teams To Score (1.80 William Hill)
