After a successful start to his Saturday Football Cheat Sheet, James O'Rourke returns with his best betting tips for the English Championship on Monday.
Hull v Millwall
Monday, 3pm
After earning a draw in their respective games on Good Friday, Hull and Millwall take to the field hoping to claim their first three-point haul of the Bank Holiday weekend. Hull were involved in an epic 4-4 goal that featured two penalties and a 98th-minute equaliser, whereas Millwall took on Luton in what proved to be a very tight and tactical affair.
Hull may hold a fairly comfortable league position with eight matches remaining, but an eight-point gap to the relegation zone will be too close for manager Liam Rosenior’s liking. A run of one victory in ten for The Tigers will be a bit of a concern, and some rumbles, albeit quiet, of a possible managerial change in the summer means a Monday win would go down a treat. Three consecutive draws also leaves just one shy of the highest number of draws in the division.
Speaking of draws, that brings us onto Millwall, who have drew each of their past two, both goalless. They still retain control of a play-off position, and with four of their last six league matches coming against teams positioned 16th and below, they’ll believe they can earn a first play-off appearance since 2017 (League One). Boss Gary Rowett will take nothing for granted however, but their away form has improved drastically as the season has progressed, so they’ll fancy their chances in East Yorkshire.
Something ironic about Hull’s 4-4 draw with Sunderland was that they didn’t actually have any fit strikers available to them. It remains to be seen if that will be the case on Monday, and this was the first time since the late January win over QPR when netting three or more in a game. You don’t see many 4-4 games and we have to put that into the ‘fluke’ category for now. Only three of their last 11 have seen three goals or more. They won’t find these so easier against a Millwall team with the fourth-best defensive record in the Championship.
The amusing price of 42/41 is available with 10Bet for this contest to feature Under 2.25 Goals and will be the recommended play. Only two of Hull’s previous 11 at home contained three or more goals, whereas only three in nine for Millwall has seen the same. Rosenior will want his side to sharpen up defensively, whilst six of Millwall’s last eight on the road had one goal or less in them.
Barnsley v Shrewsbury
Monday, 3pm
A somewhat unexpected away defeat to Burton Albion, combined with victories for Plymouth and Ipswich elsewhere, saw Barnsley’s automatic promotion hopes take a pretty big dent. They have 21 points still to play for to try and overcome a current six-point gap to second place, meaning three points on Monday is a must for Michael Duff’s men. They take on a Shrewsbury side that is now sliding into the ‘nothing to play for’ phase of the season, with a 12-point gap to the play-offs looking insurmountable.
It is actually two defeats in three for Barnsley, but both of these setbacks came on the road, and they tend to be much more reliable at Oakwell. A seven-game winning streak in front of their own supporters highlights that quite well, whilst Bolton are the only team to have defeated them there since October. This run has included recent wins over Plymouth, Sheffield Wednesday, Derby and Portsmouth.
As mentioned, Shrewsbury do look as though their season is starting to peter out. They’ve lost their last three without scoring, with the most recent two of those coming by an aggregate score of 9-0. Manager Steve Cotterill won’t stand for this, but the fact of the matter is they’ll be coming up against an opponent on Monday that has much to play for, so motivation has to come into question. Something else that is somewhat questionable is Shrewsbury’s away form as it is three losses in a row, as well as six without victory. Five of their six away triumphs came at bottom-half teams, too.
It is quite rare for teams to either win or lose both of their Bank Holiday fixtures, certainly for a team that is involved in a promotion race. Strange things happen at this point of the season, especially as the pressure begins to increase. Whilst you could argue mid-table Shrewsbury may now start to play freely, you just can’t ignore Barnsley’s super-impressive home record, where the best in this league have returned empty-handed.
You will get slim odds on a home victory here, which is why the bet-builder is called for once again. A price of 20/21 from Bet365 on a Barnsley Win and Over 1 Goal is a percentage play that has regularly paid out when backing The Tykes. Duff’s men have seen 77% of their overall league games feature at least two goals, and this bet has been successful across 13 of their 14 home league wins. Shrewsbury average less than one goal per away game, and are struggling to find the back of the net at the moment.
Leyton Orient v Harrogate
Monday, 3pm
Last and by no means least, our final glance across Monday’s EFL card allows us to drop into League Two where Leyton Orient face Harrogate. It would now take something pretty radical for Leyton Orient to blow their current ten-point lead at the top of the standings. They should be a League One club next season, and done so as League Two champions. Both-to-back wins over promotion candidates Carlisle and Salford leaves them in a great place. Harrogate sit just two-points above the dreaded relegation zone into the National League, but did come from 2-0 down to earn a dramatic draw with AFC Wimbledon on Monday.
Without doubt, Orient have been the best team in the league this season. They possess the strongest home record, where they’ve suffered just the one defeat, whilst they comfortably have the best overall defensive record. They will expect to make short work of Harrogate on this occasion, but the fact they’ve dropped points against the likes of Hartlepool, Colchester, AFC Wimbledon and Newport means they certainly cannot take them lightly.
In fact, you could argue this is a more important game for Simon Weaver’s team. Promotion looks pretty much a done deal for the hosts, especially as they could end the day in the bottom two if all results go against them. They can prove a tough nut to crack, despite their lowly league position, against the top dogs in the division. They went away to Carlisle (third) and won, drew at Stockport (fifth) and Salford (eighth), whilst gaining home points to Northampton (second), Carlisle and Stevenage (fourth).
As mentioned when covering the game above, it isn’t that often a team will win both of their Bank Holiday fixtures, certainly within the EFL. Will Orient take this one a little easy? It was a hard game they went through at Salford on Friday. Harrogate scored in the 89th and 98th minute to earn a draw in their last game and will be desperate to get back out onto the pitch. This should be a home win, but I just can’t outright commit to that.
I do still want to get Leyton Orient on side, at least for the opening 45 minutes. Coral have priced Orient to be winning at half-time at 5/4, and there is good reason for backing this selection. The slight worry is that their home first-half record reads W7, D12, L1, but they still have the best overall first-half record in League Two. Harrogate have the worst first-half away numbers (W1, D10, L8), and they’ve scored just three first-half goals in 2023. I’d rather back this then say Orient HT/FT as they’ve drawn four of their past eight, and Harrogate can cause the big teams a problem or two.
English Championship Tips
- Hull v Millwall – Under 2.25 Goals (42/41 10Bet)
- Barnsley v Shrewsbury – Barnsley Win and Over 1 Goal (20/21 Bet365)
- Leyton Orient v Harrogate – Leyton Orient Half Time (5/4 Coral)
