Netherlands v Japan
Netherlands

Netherlands vs Japan

, KO: 21:00 , Dallas Stadium
Japan

The opening match in Group F takes place at the Dallas Stadium on Sunday evening as the Netherlands take on Japan in what should be a fascinating clash.

OFFER OF THE DAY

bet365 Logo

Bet £10 Get £30 in free bets

Bet £10 & Get £30 in Free Bets for new customers at bet365. Min deposit requirement. Free Bets are paid as Bet Credits and are available for use upon settlement of bets to value of qualifying deposit. Min odds, bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. Time limits and T&Cs apply. Registration required. #Ad

The Netherlands have qualified for the World Cup finals for the eighth time from their last 10 attempts, as they topped their World Cup qualifying group, finishing three points clear of nearest challengers, Poland.

Ronald Koeman’s men were unbeaten in qualifying (W6-D2-L0), scoring 27 goals and conceding just four times, but did draw both games with the Poles 1-1.

The Dutch suffered penalty heartache in Qatar in the previous World Cup, losing to eventual winners Argentina in the quarter-finals.

Japan qualified for their seventh consecutive World Cup finals by topping their World Cup qualifying group, finishing four points clear of second-placed Australia and a mammoth 10 ahead of third-placed Saudi Arabia.

Hajime Moriyasu’s men also suffered penalty heartbreak in Qatar, as they were beaten in the Round of 16 by eventual semi-finalists Croatia, after memorably defeating both Germany and Spain in the group stages.

How the bookies view it: Dutch favourites

The Netherlands are favourites to make a winning start in Group F, with bet365 pricing them at 19/20 to collect all three points.

Japan are 27/10 to claim another European scalp, whilst the draw is 13/5.

Head to head: History in favour of the Dutch

These two nations have previously met on three occasions, with the Netherlands winning two of their clashes, with the other resulting in a draw.

One of those victories came in the group stages of the 2010 World Cup in South Africa, as Wesley Sneijder scored the only goal of the game.

Players to watch: Gakpo to grab another goal?

Cody Gakpo was in fine form for the Dutch in World Cup qualifying, as he scored four goals and provided four assists across their eight qualifiers.

The Liverpool frontman scored in all three group stage matches in Qatar in 2022, and he is an appealing 11/10 to Score or Assist at bet365.

Backed a player to find the net? Check our Goalscorer Betting guide to see how the markets work and where to find value.

Predicted line-ups:

The Netherlands will be missing the injured Jurrien Timber, Matthijs de Ligt, Jerdy Schouten and Xavi Simons, whilst goalkeeper Bart Verbruggen is a major doubt.

Japan will be without the injured Kaoru Mitoma, Takumi Minamino and captain Wataru Endo, with the Liverpool midfielder subsequently retiring from international football. 

Netherlands: Flekken, Dumfries, van Hecke, van Dijk, van de Ven, De Jong, Gravenberch, Reijnders, Summerville, Gakpo, Malen

Japan: Suzuki, Tomiyasu, Itakura, Watanabe, Dolan, Kamada, Tanaka, Nakamura, Kubo, Ito, Ueda

🔍 X-pert tip from The Betting Desk
Don't know your xG from your xP? We've got you covered with our data-led X-pert tip!

MFT's X-pert tip: Both teams to find the net

On paper this is one of the most evenly contested fixtures of the opening round, and the Elo ratings confirm it. The gap between the two sides is just 42 points, effectively making this a match between equals from a neutral venue.

Netherlands average 2.33 xGF per game in competitive play and Japan 1.84, while both sides have shown genuine defensive vulnerabilities in recent data. Netherlands concede at 1.28 xGA competitively and Japan, despite their reputation for solidity, have shipped goals against stronger opposition in friendlies.

The combined expected goal profile produces a 55.8% BTTS probability against a market implying 53.2%. Goals markets are tight but the BTTS angle at 4/5 is the most defensible recommendation given neither side has the defensive dominance to realistically keep a clean sheet against an attack of this quality.

Anything else catch the eye?

Given the attacking talent on display for both teams, this has the makings to be an entertaining encounter, with goals looking likely.

The Netherlands scored 27 goals across their eight World Cup qualifiers, but conceded in both matches against their nearest challengers, Poland.

Japan scored 30 goals across their 10 World Cup qualifiers – and whilst they only conceded three times – it’s hard to envisage them shutting out the Dutch here.

Netherlands vs Japan Betting Tips & Predictions
Both Teams to Score
4/5
Bet365
Over 2.5 Goals
1/1
Bet365
Cody Gakpo to Score or Assist
11/10
Bet365
Further Reading
0 Comments

Leave a reply

Please play responsibly. For assistance with problem gambling please visit 18+ GambleAware

About MFT  | Journalist CharterSupport  |  Contact Us  | GambleAwarePrivacy Policy  | Terms of use | ©2026 North Star Network.

All betting odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.

Log in with your credentials

or    

Forgot your details?

Create Account