EFL expert, The Betting Desk, returns with his weekly betting previews and best bets in England’s Football League.
Tranmere vs Rochdale
Tranmere have started to move through the gears in League Two and have now won their last five games on the spin without conceding a goal. Victories over Salford, Barrow, Sutton and Crewe have been impressive, and they now sit just two points outside the playoffs. This won’t be a high-scoring game given that Tranmere away matches average just 1.43 goals and Harrogate have scored just six goals at home this season, but I am not sure I can see Rovers losing this.
The hosts have gone W3-D2-L8 this season with two of their victories over Hartlepool who sit 24th and Gillingham who are 18th and struggling for goals in the early part of the season. Only three sides concede more goals at home than Harrogate and therefore it's no surprise to see them sit 22nd for most shots conceded and 17th for shots on target conceded with an xGA of 1.12. Over the last 20 home league fixtures they have returned W5-D4-L11.
Tranmere are defensively sound. They have conceded just 0.7 goals per away game with an xGA of 0.89 and only one side concedes fewer shots on target. Whilst at the other end it's 0.77 xG and the 9th highest number of shots on target taken by an away side in League Two.
Over the last four games, Harrogate have won just 3 points with an expected points total of 2.98 with an xG of just 0.51. Tranmere have collected 12 points from their last four games with an expected points total of 7.02. These are two sides in contrasting form.
- Tranmere 0.0AH can be taken at 8/11 with BetVictor which gives us some insurance should the game end in a draw.
Bristol Rovers vs Plymouth
There should be goals in Bristol on Saturday as Plymouth visits Rovers. Bristol Rovers have seen an average of 3.29 goals in their home games this season whilst Plymouth have averaged 3.86 match goals in their away fixtures. It seems improbable that this game won’t see goals.
The Gas have scored an average of 1.42 goals at home with a xG of 1.03 scoring in six of their seven home games. Their attacking output is midtable at best, but they do have a habit of scoring goals with just three blanks all season with Ipswich and Barnsley the other two sides to stop them from scoring. However, they have now conceded 1.86 goals at home keeping just one home clean sheet this term with just three sides conceding more shots, two sides conceding more shots on target and three sides conceding more shots in the box. They appear to be a side that’s going to struggle to stop the opposition from scoring. Plymouth sit top of the table and no side has scored more goals on the road than the Pilgrims. Their games are very open with both sides scoring in five of their seven away games and over 2.5 goals landing in six. They have found the net twice or more in four of their away games and conceded 2 or more in four as well.
It’s no surprise given their scoring record that they have the 3rd highest number of shots on target in their away games and no side has more shots on target from inside the box than them. However, defensively no side has a higher xGA on the road with 1.73 and they sit 18th for shots on target conceded and 23rd for shots in the box against.
They have many attacking options with Whittaker, Hardie, Cosgrove and Ennis and I am struggling to see how they don’t score at least a couple of goals here.
- Given each side's defensive issues I am happy to back goals here and over 2.5 match goals can be taken at 4/5 with Bet365 and Betfair.
Reading vs Bristol City
Staying on the goals hunt here with the other side in Bristol as City travel to Reading.
Reading home games average 2.63 goals and they have now scored in six of their eight home games with an average of 1.50 goals per game. The Royals have conceded in six as well with an average of 1.13 goals conceded per home fixture. After a strong start, they are now struggling with no wins in their last four games and just one clean sheet in their last nine games – a 1-0 win over Wigan. Both teams are regularly finding the net when Reading are involved with this landing in four of their last five games and with over 2.5 match goals landing in 60% of their games this season and 71% in their home fixtures.
Bristol City just love entertaining with goals. So far this season on the road they have seen both teams score in six of their eight games and over 2.5 goals land in six as well. They have kept just one away clean sheet this season, a 2-0 win over WBA last time out, whilst they have found the net in 100% of their away game and scored two or more in four of their away outings with no side scoring more away goals this term. However, if defensively which is their downfall. They have conceded 2 or more in 85% of their away fixtures and only three sides have conceded more away goals. The quality of chances they are giving away means clean sheets are tough as they give up the 2nd highest xGA per shot in the league. I have then 18th for shots on target in the box conceded.
This is another game where I think we will see goals, but we can back over 2.25 goals with 4/5 with Matchbook. This means that if there are just two goals, we get half our stake back, but three or more goals give us a full payout.
- 2.25 goals with 4/5 with Matchbook
