EFL expert, The Betting Desk, returns with his weekly betting previews and best bets in England’s Football League.
Morecambe vs Plymouth
Its tight at the top of L1 and the visitors will need three points here if they are to keep in the top two. A 4-0 defeat at the weekend in the Papa Johns Cup final at Wembley wasn't the best result and it will be interesting to see how they react, but Morecambe is the ideal game for them.
Recently Morecambe have gone W2-D4-L9 conceding 33 goals – an average of 2.2 per fixture. Last time out they lost 5-0 to Barnsley whilst their victories over this period have come against Port Vale and Bristol Rovers. They have won 6 games at home but apart from a victory over Barnsley early in the season they have all come against sides in the bottom 10 sides. Sheff Wed and Ipswich have both won here and scored twice. It’s just five clean sheets at home and only one in the last eight games.
Recently they have now lost four of their last five fixtures conceding 14 goals and its now no win in eight. This is a team devoid of confidence and look destined for the drop into League Two.
Plymouth have lost just 3 times in their last 18 league games – Sheff Wed, Peterborough and Barnsley and have dropped points against Ipswich, Bolton, Fleetwood, and Cambridge. There can be no denying that their away league results have been average with just two victories in their last eight, but its only 5 away defeats scoring in 15 of their 19 with three of their blanks coming at Bolton, Sheff Wed and Barnsley.
Over their last four games, the hosts have collected just one point with 3.67 xPTS whereas Plymouth have collected nine points with 6.55 xPTS. This should go to form, and the away side will continue their good goalscoring form on the road at avoid defeat.
Plymouth double chance and to score over 1.5 goals – 8/11 with BetVictor.
Grimsby vs Hartlepool
Grimsby are 15th in League Two and look safe with a big cushion to the relegation places. However, they are struggling a little with just two wins in their last eight and have kept just two clean sheets over that period. The Mariners have won just four games at home this season and only two sides have collected fewer home points so the visitors will fancy their chances here, especially given the hosts have only kept five clean sheets at home this season.
Hartlepool United are desperate for three points given the fact they sit 23rd place and two points behind Crawley Town in 22nd and safety. They had a great result last week as they scored twice in injury time to beat Swindon. They are on a good run collecting points from Bradford, Northampton and Leyton Orient over their recent games. Both teams have now scored in their last six with over 2.5 goals landing in five of their last 10. Over the course of the season their away fixtures have averaged 2.95 goals and they have scored in 14 of 19, keeping just two clean sheets.
The away side must look to attack the host especially given their poor form. It’s almost like Grimsby have achieved their aims this season with safety and now they have taken their foot off the gas. Yet given Hartlepool’s awful defensive record – no sides have conceded more away goals or has a higher xGA, whilst they sit 21st for shots conceded and 23rd for shots on target conceded, the hosts should have chances to score.
- Over 2.5 match goals – 5/6 with Bet365.
Stevenage vs Colchester
Stevenage are now looking over their shoulder as the race for the top 3 hots up. They have struggled recently with just two wins from their last six games, but they have drawn with Carlisle who are 4th, drawn with Northampton who sit 2nd and then lost to Salford who are 7th. The away defeat to Rochdale was a poor result, but they have been good at home with W14-D1-L4 with defeats coming against Salford, Tranmere, Bradford, and Northampton. Their record against the bottom 10 at home is W7-D0-L0 conceded just one.
Colchester lost their manager recently with Matt Bloomfield heading to Wycombe and it’s been a bit of a struggle since with no wins in four. This season against sides that sit 14th and above they have a record of W0-D2-L9. Attacking wise the Us have struggled. 0.63 xG on the road sitting 23rd for shots taken and 19th for SOT. This is in contrast for Stevenage as they have conceded the fewest shots and shots on target at home this season. At the other end the hosts have the best xG, scored the most goals at home, have the most shots and shots on target. It looks like this should be a home win.
if we combined a home win with under 4.5 goals, we could boost the odds a little. The hosts have only won one game at home this season with 5 or more goals in their game. If we believe that Colchester will struggle to score this gives us plenty of options.
- Stevenage to win & under 4.5 goals at 5/6 with BetVictor
