EFL expert, The Betting Desk, returns with his weekly betting previews and best bets in England’s Football League.
MK Dons vs Plymouth
The turnaround with MK Dons performances and results this season to last has been remarkable and maybe a little predictable given they lost key players over the summer. After 12 matches last season they sat 6th having won five of their opening games scoring 21 goals with 19 points roll forward 12 months and they now sit 22nd with just three wins, scoring 12 goals and just 10 points.
I have them 23rd on xPTS, 24th on xG ratio, 19th on SOT ratio and 23rd for shots in the box ratio. They are one of three worst sides in the division alongside Morecambe and Lincoln for performance metrics.
They have won just once in their last six games and their record against sides 15th and above this season is W0-D1-L8 scoring 4 and conceding 15.
Plymouth are having another impressive season and now sit top of the pile having recently beaten Sheff Wednesday, Ipswich, Wycombe, Oxford, Derby and Bolton. So far this season its W10-D1-L2. I have them in 7th on xPTS, so they may have been a little fortunate at times and 12th for xG ratio and 10th for SOT ratio, but they have players in form and at the top of their game. Sam Cosgrove, Niall Ennis and Morgan Whittaker are a constant threat whilst Bali Mumba is looking an excellent addition from Norwich on loan.
Plymouth are playing with confidence and looks too good for a poor Dons side which looks to be fighting to stay in League One.
- Plymouth to win at 6/5 with Betfred
Ipswich vs Lincoln
Ipswich continues to look good this season under Kieran McKenna and they look a complete team. They hold possession easily, are excellent at the back, and have the movement and quality to break teams down. Only Peterborough have generated a higher xG, whilst no side in League One as a lower xGA. Ipswich sit top of the pile for most shots on target and shots in the box taken and only Oxford have faced fewer shots on target and no side has conceded fewer shots in the box.
At home under McKenna, the Tractor boys have a record of W11-D5-L1 dropping points against Barnsley, Bolton, Wigan, Portsmouth, Cambridge and Cheltenham. Against Cambridge, they won the xG 1.05 v 0.36 and the shot count 17 v 4 with the away side not registering a shot on target. Cheltenham was a similar story winning the shot count 16 v 5. Ipswich have improved this season and now have better players in the final third with more options and I don’t see Lincoln providing any real threat to them on Saturday. I was tempted to take Ipswich to win to nil given that 9 of their 11 home wins have been to nil, but I am keen to get behind Ipswich to win, over 1 Ipswich goal and over 3 Ipswich corners at just over 10/11.
The hosts have scored two or more goals in 5 of 6 home games and in 10 of their 13 matches this season, scoring in every game. Lincoln have conceded in 5 of 6 away games with an average of 2.0 goals against in each away fixture. Ipswich have won an average of 6.83 corners in their 6 home games, hitting at least 4 in every game at Portman Road this season, whilst the Imps have conceded an average of 6 from their 6 away games.
- Ipswich win, Ipswich over 1 goal and over 3 corners at 10/11 with Bet365
Bristol City vs Millwall
I am going to back Bristol City to continue on the goal trial this weekend. The Robins have now seen an average of 3.14 goals per game this season scoring and conceding 22 times. They have kept just one clean sheet in their last 7 games scoring in 6 of their 7 home games and 12 of 13 games this season.
Their average of 1.6 goals scored per home game can only be bettered by 6 other sides in the Championship whilst they sit 7th for shots on target from inside the box so going forward their have the ability to score goals. They have plenty of attacking options up top with Nahki Wells, Andreas Weimann, Tommy Conway and Antonie Semenyo. However, at the back it’s not been great despite conceding just 0.9 goals per home fixture. Only 4 sides concede more shots and just 3 sides concede more shots in the box. Last season in the Championship a goal was conceded every 9.2 shots and City are conceding 10.7 so they should be conceding more goals than they are.
Millwall where dark horses for the playoffs from many people but this season hasn’t really got going for them with an away record of W0-D2-L4 but five of their six away games have been against the current top seven sides. They failed to score in 50% of their away games but these have been against Sheff Utd, Norwich and Burnley. The Lion's record this season against sides outside of the top seven is W5-D1-L0, although the majority of these games have been at home. They have found the net in 8 of their 13 games this term has the highest away xG in the division with no side registering more shots in the box in away games than the Lions.
Defensively not great with an xGA of 1.43 and goals conceded of 1.8 with only 3 sides conceding more shots or shots in the box than Millwall. The Lions do have Zian Flemming who has the 3rd most shots in the division and has four goals to his name this season. I hope both sides can find the net here and continue with goals at both ends. I am going to take over 2.25 goal line, which means that our stake is split between 2 and 2.5 goals. If there are only 2 goals, we will get 50% of our stake back and if there are three or more goals scored, we get a full payout.
- Bristol City vs Millwall – over 2.25 goals at 3/4 with Bet365
