EFL expert, The Betting Desk, returns with his weekly betting previews and best bets in England’s Football League.
Ipswich vs Exeter
Ipswich are the inform team in the country with 11 wins from their last 12 games, conceding just two and scoring 37, it’s a crazy run of form. What’s more impressive is this run includes away victories over Bolton, Derby, Peterborough, and Barnsley. At home this season they have gone W14-D5-L1 scoring an average of 2.50 goals per home fixture.
In their last 12 home games they have scored a total of 37 goals, finding the net twice or more in 11 – a 1-1 draw with Plymouth. Over this period, they have found the net three times or more in seven, which means the only teams to stop them scoring three or more have been Posh, Plymouth, Sheff Wednesday, Shrewsbury and Port Vale, who had just sacked their manager and came to Portman to defend deep looking for a draw to help their survival fight.
Recently Barnsley manager, Michael Duff stated that the data suggested Ipswich are the best side in League One ever. They sit top of the all the major metrics and look very strong.
A win here will secure promotion back to the Championship after a four-year absence and with a sell-out crowd and the players knowing what is at stake, I think they will deliver a big victory.
Exeter are safe in midtable and looking forward to the end of season. They have been impressive at home, but their away form has been with just five victories all season. Only six sides have won fewer away points and they have won just once on the road against sides that are 13th and above, keeping just two clean sheets. Overall, it’s just six away clean sheets this term.
They have now failed to win in their last seven away games, losing five and its now five defeats on the bounce.
Ipswich will be too strong for Exeter who won’t fancy going to Portman Road and I am happy to back them to score three or more at just over even money. The Tractor Boys are still on for 100 points and 100 goals. They currently have 94 points and 93 goals with two games left.
- Ipswich to score over 2.5 goals at 11/10 with Betfair.
Plymouth vs Burton
Plymouth, like Ipswich know that a win on Saturday puts them into the Championship and they have a phenomenal home record with W19-D1-L2 collecting 58 points. They face a Burton side who celebrated survival midweek as they went to Lincoln and won 1-0.
In contrast to the Plymouth home form, Burton have won just six times on the road this season and when visiting teams who sit 9th and above their record is W0-D1-L7 conceding a total of 18, an average of 2.25 goals per game.
The Brewers have kept just three clean sheets on the road all season with no other side conceding more. They sit 22nd for xGA, shots conceded and shots on target conceded. Plymouth are going to get opportunities.
The hosts have scored in 19 of 22 home games, scoring at least twice in 16.
There has been pressure applied to Plymouth given the run of Ipswich, but they have been excellent and continue to produce three points. Argyle have now won nine of their last 11 games and they require just one more to clinch promotion and with the Brewers still celebrating survival, a full house cheering them on they should do this easily.
A home win and with the host scoring at least twice isn’t worth backing but we can add in over 3 Plymouth corners to boost the odds to 4/5. The hosts have won an average of 6.30 corners per home game, winning 4 or more in 19 of their 22 home games. Burton have conceded an average of 5.55 corners on the road, allowing their hosts to win 4 or more in 15.
Plymouth should come out of the traps here looking to win the game and put on a show.
- Plymouth win, Plymouth over 1.5 goals and Plymouth over 3 corners at 4/5 with bet365
Carlisle vs Salford
A massive game in League Two which has a big impact on not only the automatic positions but also the playoffs. These two sides sit 5th and 6th. The host are just four points off the last automatic position, but also just three points ahead of Salford, who are level on points with 7th place Bradford and 8th placed Mansfield, who currently sit outside the play offs. Bradford also has a game in hand on all the sides in the top half.
With some much to play for and a draw really no good to either side, it should be a very competitive game.
Carlisle home matches have produced an average of 3.35 cards so far this season, with the hosts collecting at least one card in 17 of their 22 home fixtures. There have only been three sides that have travelled to Brunton Park this season and failed to collect at least one card with an average of 1.86. Nine of their last 10 games have produce four or more cards and both sides carded.
Salford have collected an average of 1.64 cards on the road this season, picking up at least one card in 17 of their 22 away fixtures. They have only seen three host sides fail to be carded on their travels this season with a match average of 3.73. Salford have seen a total of 26 yellows and one red in their last five games.
The referee here is Stockbridge who has taken charge of 10 League Two games this season. Over these 10 he has shown an average of 3.30 cards, with both sides collecting a card each in 70%
Given that both sides will want to win the game I am happy to add at least one goal to the bet. The hosts have scored in 19 of 22 home games with an average of 1.45 goals per home fixture. Salford have seen an away match average of 3.18 goals with both teams scoring 15 of 22 and over 1.5 goals landing 72%. The visitors scored in 18 of 22 away days.
- Both teams 10+ booking points each, 40+ match booking points and over 0.5 goals 5/6 with Skybet
