With the season reaching a crucial stage, the battle for promotion and play-off spots is heating up. This weekend, three standout fixtures offer strong betting opportunities: Notts County vs Tranmere, Charlton vs Exeter, and Bradford vs MK Dons.
Notts County will be looking to capitalize on their impressive home form against a Tranmere side struggling on the road, while Charlton aim to maintain their push for the play-offs against an Exeter team that has found wins hard to come by. Meanwhile, Bradford’s dominance at Valley Parade puts them in prime position to claim another victory against an MK Dons side that has failed to keep a clean sheet away from home all season.
With form, stats, and key matchups in mind, let’s break down why these three teams are well-placed to secure wins, and where the best betting value lies in each fixture.
Charlton vs Exeter City
Charlton are in strong form as they push for a play-off spot, especially at home, where they have been dominant. With a record of W9-D5-L2 at The Valley, they have won six of their last eight home matches while conceding just three goals in that period. Their defensive solidity is clear, having kept clean sheets in four of their last five home games and a total of eight for the season. They have also been reliable in front of goal, failing to score in just two home matches.
Their overall form is impressive, losing just two of their last 14 games, both of which were tough away fixtures against Rotherham and league leaders Birmingham.
Charlton’s home games tend to be controlled and low-scoring, with 62.5% finishing under 2.5 goals and an average of just 2.0 goals per game. Notably, all nine of their home wins have had three goals or fewer, with six of them staying under 2.5 goals.
Exeter, meanwhile, have struggled on the road, with a W5-D2-L8 record. Their defensive frailties have been evident, keeping just four clean sheets while failing to score in four away matches. Their overall form has been poor, with only four wins in their last 20 league games, including 12 defeats.
Their record against top-half opposition is particularly concerning, standing at W3-D2-L12, with two of those wins coming before early October. Before their recent win over bottom-placed Cambridge, Exeter had endured a nine-game winless run, conceding 23 goals at an average of 2.56 per match.
Similar to Charlton, Exeter’s away games tend to be tight, with 60% going under 2.5 goals and averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Given Charlton’s defensive strength at home and Exeter’s struggles against stronger sides, a Charlton win looks likely. However, with both teams involved in mostly low-scoring matches, it is unlikely the game will produce more than four goals. A home victory with under 4.5 goals is the most probable outcome.
- Best Bet: Charlton win & under 4.5 goals at 1.85 with Ladbrokes
Bradford City vs MK Dons
Bradford are in outstanding form at home and look well-positioned to secure another victory. Their record at Valley Parade is exceptional, with W12-D3-L1. They have been particularly dominant in recent weeks, winning their last eight home games by a combined score of 14-3. Their defensive strength is evident, with seven home clean sheets this season and only two games where they failed to score. Their sole home loss came against third-placed Doncaster, a much stronger opponent than MK Dons.
Against bottom-half teams, Bradford have been ruthless, boasting a record of W11-D5-L2. They rank highly across key metrics, sitting forth on xPTS at home, seven on xPTS over the last eight matches, and forth on xG ratio. No team has picked up more points over the last 10 games, further reinforcing their momentum.
MK Dons, on the other hand, have struggled away from home, making them unlikely to halt Bradford’s winning streak. They have failed to keep a single clean sheet on their travels, with their W4-D2-L8 away record highlighting their inconsistency. While they have scored in their last 11 away matches, they have conceded two or more goals in 50% of them and are currently winless in their last five away games.
Their record against top-eight opposition is particularly concerning, with just one win in 12 matches (W1-D3-L8). Over the last eight games, they have ranked 22nd for xPTS and 23rd for xG ratio, with only two teams having a worse defensive record (xGA). Their defence has been especially vulnerable, allowing more shots in the box than any team except Newport in recent matches.
With Bradford’s home dominance and MK Dons’ defensive frailties, the hosts should have little trouble securing another win. Their ability to control games, combined with MK Dons’ struggles against stronger sides, makes a Bradford victory the most likely outcome.
- Best Bet: Bradford to win at 1.85 with Coral
Notts County vs Tranmere
Notts County are in excellent form and well-positioned to secure another victory, especially against a struggling Tranmere side. Sitting forth in the table, just one point off the automatic promotion places, County have been strong at home with a W8-D4-L3 record, conceding just nine goals in those matches.
Their defensive stability has been key, keeping seven clean sheets in 15 home games, and they have only conceded two or more goals twice, one of which was against league leaders Walsall. Their attacking numbers are just as impressive, ranking top on xPTS over the last four games, 2nd over the last eight, and 3rd in xG ratio in that period. Only two teams have picked up more points than them over the last 10 games, showing they are in strong form.
Tranmere, by contrast, have been poor on their travels, losing nine consecutive away games. Their overall away record of W2-D2-L11 highlights their struggles, with the team conceding an average of 2.20 goals per game. Their defence has been unreliable, keeping just one clean sheet away from home all season.
Their attacking output has also been weak, averaging just 0.75 goals per game over their last 20 matches, while their record against top-half teams is dreadful, standing at W1-D1-L7. Their only victory in that stretch came against 12th-placed Bromley, meaning they have consistently struggled against stronger opposition. Nearly all of their away defeats have featured at least two goals conceded, further emphasising their defensive vulnerabilities.
Over the last eight games, only Gillingham have collected fewer points than Tranmere, and they currently rank 23rd for xPTS in that period.
Given County’s attacking strength and Tranmere’s defensive frailties, a home win is highly likely. With Tranmere consistently conceding multiple goals and County ranking highly in xG, the game should see at least two goals, making a County win with over 1.5 match goals the most probable outcome.
- Best Bet: Notts County to win & over 1.5 goals at 1.83 with Paddy Power
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