Luton vs Sheffield Wednesday
The Hatters finally got off the mark last weekend as they beat Millwall to register a win in the Championship following their relegation from the Premier League back in May. Their results look very poor with W1-D1-L3. They scored five goals with an xG of 4.79, while conceding seven goals from an xGA of just 3.75.
Luton have won the xG battle in three of their five games as they have struggled to take their chances. In their opening game of the season Burnley scored four goals from a xG of 1.07 and Preston scored to nick the game 1-0 from xG of 0.27 and two shots on target.
Overall, I have them sixth on xPTS and on non-penalty xG ratio. Only four sides have registered more shots in the box and only five teams have lower xGA. All the signs suggest that Luton will start to pick up points soon.
It must seem a long time ago that the Owls fans were celebrating their opening-day thrashing of Plymouth. They were excellent in their 4-0 win, generating 2.43 xG and registering 25 shots. Four games later, their total xG for the season is 4.05, as they have added just 1.62 across the next four matches.
Whilst their matches have been tough against Leeds, Sunderland, Millwall, and QPR, the issue is the low number of goal-scoring chances they create. They haven’t won the xG battle or shot count in any of the fixtures since the Plymouth match.
I have the Owls down in 16th for xPTS and 17th for non-penalty xG ratio as they sit 20th in the league standings, just one point ahead of second-bottom Portsmouth.
I don’t think the results fairly reflect the performances of Luton whilst the Owls are struggling so I am happy to back the hosts to win the game.
- Best Bet: Luton to beat Sheffield Wednesday at 1.91 with Ladbrokes
Sheff Utd vs Derby
Confidence is slowly creeping back into Bramall Lane after a disastrous season last year in the Premier League. The Blades are yet to taste defeat this term with W3-D2-L0. They currently sit sixth in the table, and my rankings have them fifth on xPTS and eighth on non-penalty xG ratio, so they are performing to their league position.
Their two home games were against QPR and Watford and they restricted the Hornets to just 0.04 xG, conceding just five shots in the 90 minutes. A repeat performance here will certainly impact the Rams.
Derby’s results have masked a poor start. The Rams beat Middlesbrough 1-0, but lost the xG battle 1.83 vs 0.44 as Boro won the shot count 20 vs 3. This was followed up with a 3-0 win over Bristol City, and again, they lost the xG battle 1.06 vs 0.91. My rankings have them 21st for xPTS and 23rd for non-penalty xG ratio, with only fellow new boys, Portsmouth, having a higher xGA.
They have lost both their away games so far this season, conceding a total of 24 shots, 10 shots on target and 14 shots in the box.
The Blades games have only averaged 2.20 goals, whilst the Rams have seen 2.80 goals per 90 minutes, so I am not anticipating a game with lots of goals. Taking the hosts to win and there to be less than five goals seems the best way in.
- Sheff Utd win & under 4.5 goals at 1.95 with Betway
Peterborough vs Bristol Rovers
Posh fans should not be too worried about their start to the season. Despite not winning at home so far this season with W1-L2, they have had a tough start with Huddersfield, Wrexham, and Lincoln. I have them fourth on xPTS and second on non-penalty xG ratio.
The games were tight affairs, as Posh lost the total xG over the three games by 2.22 vs 2.36. Over the three games, they have scored just once while conceding five, and it’s unlikely this will continue. Last season, when welcoming a side from thirteenth downwards, they had a record of W10-D1-L1. They face a Bristol Rovers side sitting in fourteenth place.
The Gas started this season with W2-D1-L3, with their victories coming at home to rock-bottom Cambridge and struggling Northampton. On the road, they have generated an average of 0.57 xG per game while conceding an xGA of 1.72 per game.
I have them 21st for away xPTS and 23rd for non-penalty xG ratio. Their xGA of 1.72 is the highest in the division, and no side has conceded more shots on target per 90 minutes than Rovers this season when playing away from home.
Last season, against the top half of sides on the road, they returned W3-D1-L8, keeping just one clean sheet. Over the last 20 League One games spanning this season and last, they have won just six, but none of these sides sat in 10th place or above, and five of their victories came against sides in eighteenth or below.
- Best Bet: Peterborough win and over 1.5 goals at 1.80 with Bet365
