This weekend’s League Two action offers plenty of excitement and betting opportunities, with several intriguing matchups featuring teams battling for promotion and survival.
Harrogate vs Swindon Town pits a struggling Harrogate side against an in-form Swindon team that looks rejuvenated under new management.
Stevenage vs Peterborough brings contrasting fortunes, with Stevenage’s solid home form clashing with Peterborough’s dismal away record. Meanwhile, Leyton Orient vs Lincoln City showcases two teams heading in opposite directions—Orient are surging up the table, while Lincoln’s playoff hopes are slipping away. Let’s break down each game to find the best value bets for the weekend.
Harrogate vs Swindon Town
The change in management at Swindon Town has completely turned their season around. Just a few weeks ago, Swindon were sitting 22nd in the league, only four points clear of 23rd-placed Morecambe and staring down the threat of relegation.
However, their form over the last six matches has been transformative, with a record of W4-D1-L1, their only defeat coming at home to promotion-chasing Birmingham City.
During this impressive run, Swindon have secured wins against Barrow, Newport, and Tranmere, along with a dominant 5-1 victory at Carlisle, and drew 3-3 with sixth-placed Port Vale, who are just one point off the automatic promotion spots.
In the last five League Two matches, no team has earned more points or scored more goals than Swindon. They have netted 15 goals while conceding just six during this period.
Over their last four games, Swindon rank fifth for xPTS, and they sit eighth for xPTS over their last eight matches. During this stretch, they have conceded just 0.71 xGA, placing them among the division’s best defensive performers, with only two sides having a lower xGA over that span.
Now they travel to Harrogate, who are enduring a tough season. Harrogate have managed just eight wins from 31 matches, suffering 17 losses. They have won only two of their last 14 games, beating bottom-eight sides Cheltenham at home and Barrow away.
At home, Harrogate have a W5-D2-L8 record, scoring just 12 goals in total—and four of those goals came in their first four home games. In their last 11 home fixtures, they have averaged 0.73 goals per game.
Early-season home wins over Bradford and Doncaster looked promising, but since then, they have beaten just one side from the top half. Harrogate have failed to score in almost half of their home games (46.67%) and have kept just four clean sheets.
Their most recent home match ended in a 0-0 draw with Colchester, where Colchester edged the xG battle (0.76 vs 0.46). Harrogate managed just eight shots in that game, with only one on target. Over their last eight matches, Harrogate rank 14th for xPTS, but their home form is abysmal, sitting 23rd for home xPTS and 24th for xG ratio—and by a considerable margin. Their xG ratio at home is 29.9%, far lower than the next-worst team, Morecambe (45%).
Harrogate’s attacking struggles are clear. No team in the league has had fewer shots on target at home, and they also rank bottom for shots inside the box. Defensively, they are equally poor, conceding 1.31 xGA per game at home, the second highest in the division. They are 23rd for shots conceded and shots on target conceded, with only two teams allowing more shots in the box at home.
Swindon are on a roll, while Harrogate seem to be heading in the opposite direction. Swindon’s current form, both in attack and defence, makes them clear favourites in this matchup. While backing Swindon to win outright is tempting, a safer option is to take Swindon on the +0 Asian handicap, offering excellent value while minimising risk.
- Best Bet: Swindon +0.0AH at 1.73 with Bet365
Stevenage vs Peterborough
Stevenage have had a solid home campaign with a record of W8-D2-L5, conceding just 15 goals in 15 home matches—an average of one goal per game. They have kept seven clean sheets, failing to score in only four of those games. Their home form has been a bit inconsistent, beating teams currently sitting third, fourth and fifth in the table, but also suffering a 2-0 loss to bottom-placed Cambridge United.
However, Stevenage have shown good recent form at home, winning four of their last six home matches and losing only twice in their last eight. Notable results include victories over Stockport and respectable draws against high-flying Leyton Orient and Reading. Based on expected metrics, Stevenage rank fourth for home xPTS and seventh for xG ratio from home fixtures this season.
Peterborough are enduring a nightmare season. Known for being promotion contenders in recent years, they now sit just above the relegation zone, three points ahead of 21st-placed Shrewsbury Town. Their overall record stands at W8-D6-L16, and they have conceded 57 goals—the most in League One.
Away from home, it has been disastrous. Peterborough have managed just eight points from 14 away matches with a record of W2-D2-L10, conceding 31 goals and scoring only 18. They have kept just two clean sheets all season and failed to score in eight away games. Worse still, their two away wins came in their first two away games, meaning they have now gone 12 away fixtures without a win, scoring only 12 goals while conceding at an alarming rate of 2.42 goals per game.
They have conceded two or more goals in 10 of those 12 matches, picking up just one point in their last 11 away fixtures.
Despite their poor results, Peterborough rank 13th for away xPTS and xG ratio, but their 1.53 xGA is the fourth highest in League One. When facing team’s 17th or higher in the table, their away record is W0-D1-L9. Stevenage, currently 13th, are well-positioned to take advantage of Peterborough’s struggles. Overall, Peterborough’s record against sides in 12th or above is W1-D3-L11, both home and away.
Under manager Alex Revell, Stevenage have retained much of the direct, physical style introduced by former boss Steve Evans. Against a young, struggling Peterborough side, this physical approach could be key.
Peterborough are low on confidence and prone to defensive lapses, making Stevenage a strong value bet for this match.
- Best Bet: Stevenage to win at 2.0 with Paddy Power
Leyton Orient vs Lincoln City
Leyton Orient are enjoying another excellent season, despite a slow start. After winning just two of their first 11 matches, they found themselves in 20th place with only eight points, level with the team in the final relegation spot. At that point, relegation looked like a real possibility.
However, since those early struggles, Orient have completely turned things around, winning 12 of their last 18 games and losing only three times. Over that 18-game period, only Birmingham have collected more points, with Orient earning 39 points to Birmingham’s 41. No team in the division has scored more goals during this period, and only Birmingham have conceded fewer.
At home, Orient’s record stands at W8-D3-L5, but it’s important to note that they failed to win any of their first five home matches, drawing two and losing three.
During that difficult opening stretch, they faced some of the preseason favourites for promotion including Bolton, Birmingham, Peterborough, and Wrexham—all teams expected to challenge for the top six. Since then, their home form has improved significantly. They have kept 10 clean sheets in 16 home matches, and their record against sides sitting ninth or below is W8-D2-L1.
In fact, Orient’s four defeats all season have come against teams currently in the top nine.
Lincoln City, currently 12th, have experienced the opposite trajectory. Their overall record of W10-D10-L10 reflects how their season has stalled. Lincoln lost only three of their first 15 matches, but since then, their form has dipped significantly. In their last 15 games, they have managed just W3-D5-L7, scoring only 15 goals.
Two of their three wins in that period came at home against Reading and a struggling Peterborough side, with their only away win during this stretch coming at Northampton.
On the road, Lincoln have struggled, with two of their four wins coming against the league’s bottom two sides—Cambridge and Burton. Their record against teams in the top half away from home is W0-D2-L2, and over their last eight games, they rank 12th for xPTS, while Leyton Orient sit fifth over the same period.
Any concerns that Leyton Orient might have been affected by their disappointing 2-1 FA Cup loss to Manchester City were quickly put to rest as they returned to league action with a commanding 3-0 victory over struggling Mansfield. Orient have now won six of their last eight home matches, conceding just one goal in that span.
Their xGA from open play over those eight games is just 0.44, reflecting how difficult they have been to break down.
While Lincoln still have an outside chance of making the playoffs—they sit nine points behind sixth-placed Huddersfield—Leyton Orient are the team in form. A win here could push Orient into the top six as they continue their promotion push. Given their home form and overall momentum, Leyton Orient look like excellent value for the win.
- Best Bet: Leyton Orient to win at 1.91 with 888 Sport
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