The in-form Jack Draper comes up against world No. 6 Taylor Fritz in the second round of the Paris Masters this Wednesday, in a mouth-watering clash with plenty on the line. Draper will be looking to keep his slim ATP Finals hopes alive, while Fritz is eager to maintain momentum ahead of Turin. Who will prevail? Read on for our Draper vs Fritz prediction and betting tips.
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Player form: Draper on a six-match winning streak
Jack Draper made a return to winning ways at the Vienna Open last week, where he stunningly made the final and then defeated Karen Khachanov. It was a superb run from the Brit and a continuation of his good form in recent weeks, which started ahead of the US Open.
Draper backed up his maiden ATP 500 title with an opening win in Paris, knocking off Jiri Lehecka in straight sets. He’s simply playing superb tennis right now, and it’s unlikely to stop anytime soon.
Fritz, on the other hand, hasn’t played since early in the month. His last match was in the semi-finals of the Shanghai Masters, where he went down in two tight sets to Novak Djokovic.
How the bookies view it: Draper the slight underdog
A bit surprisingly, Draper is an underdog in this match, but only slightly. The odds are dropping on him sharply, which tells us that people are hammering him to win the match and there is a very good reason for that.
He’s been basically untouchable in the past 10 days or so, and he’s an excellent indoor player. Sure, Fritz is very good and has had moderate success in Paris in the past, but he’s short on match time and that might be a minor problem.
Recent head-to-head: Fritz leads 2-1
Fritz and Draper have played three times so far, and two of those happened this year. Fritz won both of those, but they were very close matches that went to three sets.
Both also happened on clay, which isn’t the best surface for Draper, certainly not up to the level Fritz can play on it.
Still, they were close matches, which tells us that Draper can play with Fritz. As this one will happen in conditions much more favorable to Draper, well, do the math.
Anything else catch the eye?
What makes Draper so tough indoors is his serve, which has created all kinds of problems for his opponents. When it’s firing the way it has recently, it’s basically impossible to break him, and that makes him the likely winner in this match as well.
The way Draper has been dominating on his serve has been particularly impressive during this indoor season. Out of the last six matches, his ace rate dropped below 10% only in one match and peaked at 35% in one of those.
That means that 35% of his first serves hit were aces, which are basically automatic points. He’s also been winning points behind his first serve at a superb rate, peaking at 96% against Lehecka in the first match in Paris.
The hit percentage of the first serve was only 53% in Paris, but it was close to 70% in Vienna. If he gets close to that with the way he’s converting those points, he’s basically unbreakable.
As overwhelming as Fritz can be from the baseline, the American is capable of overhitting at times, and that’s not a good thing. He also hasn’t played indoors at all this year.
Draper vs Fritz betting tips & predictions
Our prediction is that Draper will win this match. The odds are great and we think he’s just been too good lately. The conditions should also favour him quite a bit so take him to win it.
- Draper to win the match @ 1/1
This match will be played on Wednesday, October 29, 2024 in Vienna.
Bren is our resident Kiwi, and has been playing or watching sports down under in New Zealand for the better part of three decades. With 12+ years experience as a professional writer, Bren loves to dive deep into all things sport to bring the best betting analysis and predictions here at Mr Fixits Tips.
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