WITH the final three fixtures, the business end of the relegation could be nearer certain after this match day.
Schedule of play (Player named on the left will throw first)
Daryl Gurney Vs Mensur Suljovic
- Gurney 33/20 (Unibet); Suljovic 11/8 (William Hill) – Tie 7/2 Bet365
- Gurney leads 6-4 (Last meeting Gurney July 17)
With Suljovic the slight favourite from this, but with Mensur the shorter price Had favourite of the two for the drop suggests the bearing of the gentle having to play MVG in what could be an event changer.
The worse checkout converter faces the best on event stats and Gurney was very lucky to have not lost against Whitock having more than one visit of match darts to seal a draw. Had Gurney won the game, he would be longer than the 6/4 offered by Irish firm Paddy Power for the drop after phase one.
On the 180 markets, Gurney is BIG at 1/2 agaist Mensur at 27/10 and 19/4 for the tie (Thanks Glenn) with Bwin. Super Chin's 180 average in the PL is 0.3382 180's per leg versus Gentle's 0.15 180s per leg. At 1/2 implies a 66.67% chance of winning the tally. In defence the pace may hamper Gurney, but the price to land one more may just land irrespective.
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Michael van Gerwen Vs Michael Smith
- Gerwen 4/11 (Betfair); Smith 6/1 (888sport) – Tie 11/2 Bet365
- Gerwen leads 19-5 (2018 H2H 1-1 MVG won 8 of last 9)
The price suggests a home banker for odds on backers and I do not blame them. For us I try and avoid the shorter price home favourites to try and capture the value where possible. The bookies got it spot on with the price on total legs with MVG against Price set at 9.5 at 4/5 and 10/11 respectively and as Steve Davies stated in his Racing Post preview he took the 4/5 on 10 or more legs based on Price's guts and resilience in his games.
Michael Smith saw off Peter Wright in what I can say was an easy win for Smith despite his 95 average, Smith did not need to do anymore than this. Bulking up Smith's leg average to +18 which effectively gives him the away goal albeit a couple of thrashings moving forward, which I do no endeavour puts Smith in with a good shout of making the play offs if he can maintain his performances, which bookmakers firmly place Bullyboy as a 4/9 poke to make the top four and 17/10 with Bwin to place 5th or less come the end of phase two.
I was hoping for evens on a stalemate first leg maximum count but is just 5/6 so in bookies eyes a coin toss.
Gary Anderson Vs Simon Whitlock
- Anderson 8/15 (William Hill); Whitlock 9/2 (Betway) – Tie 4/1 Bet365
- Anderson leads 21-16 (2017-present 2-2 H2H)
The pair have not met for a little while now and odds compilers firmly have the Scotsman their firm favourite to take the two points on the night. Whitlock is potentially big at 9/2 to upset the double world champion. However missed opportunities at beating Gurney may influence the price in the Aussie's ability to close down a game. I saw shades of the Whitlock that every shrewd backer should be beware of, and am sure he let down backers last week by falling to an unlikely draw when having three match darts on tops missed.
Anderson let us down although his undefeated streak remains alive after a tie with Barney last Thursday although credibility goes to Gary from rescuing a draw from 6-4 down. Barney has begun to train again to build an increasing positive mental attitude and it has shown for the last two weeks. Anderson will realise his position and know he needs to start recapturing the gap, which is two points between himself and his opponent and see the flying Scotsman bagging all the points here.
I can see the evens and better prices for Gerwen and Anderson being a popular double for the evening and at best priced 2.12 with Sport Pesa and 2.08 with Betfair Sportsbook and entertaining better than even money chance at seeing a return here against the implied odds marketed.
Peter Wright Vs Raymond van Barneveld
- Wright 13/8 (Boylesports); Barney 7/5 (Betfair) – Tie 7/2 Bet365
- Barney leads 9-8 (with 4 PL draws – Wright not lost in PL since 2014 PL campaign)
With a seemingly more positive Barney am I surprised the odds compilers see him as the favourite despite faced against the World number 2? Peter Wright has not had the best of form in recent times and requires some major turnaround to avoid being a realistic risk to relegation at judgement night. at 7/2 this may appeal to some backers but not us, as his pedigree and determination counts for slightly more to us.
Barney has certainly U-turned on his form going into the beginning of the month and think exercise is his game changer and this has been evident at least since the last two weeks.
Rob Cross Vs Gerwyn Price
It would be a tad unfair to completely rule out Gezzy Price at 11/2, but without a win on the scoreboard do 11/2 odds tempt? Now 11/2 in percentage terms converts roughly to a 15% chance of winning the game. Now you may ask the question of how can this percentage be measured by us or the odds compiler? Well applying a basis of statistics and algorithm calculations formulates a percentage and with some manual adjustment concludes here. Price does not have a win on the board albeit two hard earned draws and faces a Rob Cross, whose start to the campaign was relatively unsettling for some after two straight defeats. Rob has defied the critics by winning four on the bounce and an inform player.
Cross has said himself that adjusting to his new life has not been easy being used to routine practice. at least initially the commitments as World Champion.
Voltage will be seen as a good addition to the earlier shorter price double boosting to a tempting 2/1 with Betfair for MVG/Anderson and Cross treble!
- Van Gerwen/Anderson double – 2.04 Betfair 5pts