AFTER wins for Peter Wright, James Wade, Raymond van Barneveld, Dave Chisnall and Adrian Lewis all players can maintain their unbeaten starts as this week rolls around to Newcastle. With a European Tour event beginning on Friday, none of the competitors in the Dutch Masters will be competing until Saturday.
With a sold out arena of 7000 the fixture list is tasty. The players on the left will throw first.
Michael Smith v Robert Thornton
Head to head tied on 4 apiece.
Key Lockup stats – No previous PL meetings, with Thornton losing all of the last three meetings; all UK open qualifiers and have only played three times since 2013. No TV meetings.
Smith will be playing his third match after filling in for the absent Anderson last week. Smith’s campaign did not get off to the best of starts losing heavily on both games. Thornton had a shocker losing to nil against Dave Chisnall. It does not help that the week before Thornton lost from 9-1 to last week's winner Chisnall, and the St Helen’s thrower never really had to get out of third gear last week.
With the match pricing here, the bookies have this wrong! With Smith odds on in places, he will need to break the throw of Thornton. The compilers think at 5/2 that combined with the draw his double chance price should be around 21/20, but Sportingbet are the leading price at 19/20, so no value there.
Will both players be able to recover from their respective adversaries? You might argue that attempting to put trust in either player has to lean on price. Smith to win will need to break the Thornton throw and is only evens. On the flip side Thornton is 5/2 to break the Smith throw at least once overall and win. On the basis Smith is throwing first, we must have some faith in the Scotsman to regain some form here.
- Thornton – draw no bet 7/4 Boylesports 1pt
Raymond van Barneveld v Peter Wright
Barney leads the head to head 7-2-3
Key Lockup stats – Wright has not been beaten in the last three meetings including a PL draw back in week three of the 2015 competition. Wright has never beaten Barneveld in the PL with two draws and one defeat. All three games went the twelve leg distance.
Barneveld is priced as the underdog here and you can understand this with the professionalism Wright has had in his play by disposing of Smith last week. Barney himself eased over the line at the hands to old nemesis Phil Taylor in what was not the most memorable game they have played. Still the 2/1 will raise some eyebrows with punters on the basis he is throwing first.
The one market I recommended on Monday was Wright to hit more maximums than Barney which was 5/6 at Skybet. His 180 hitting in recent months has been superb, hitting five last week in the Premier League compared to RVB who only hit two. At the Masters the weekend before last he hit fifteen in two games, RVB hit two in a first round defeat. The World Championships, Wright hit thirty-eight making the quarter finals whereas Barney went to the semi-finals and only hit twenty-seven maximums. Even further back at Minehead in November at the Players Championship Wright made the 2nd round and hit ten 180s, RVB lost in round one and only hit two 180s
Seeing as this bet has already been recommended on site elsewhere is limited. I do advise that the acceptable price here is no lower than 4/5, but failing that unfortunately looking elsewhere the only other market that appeals is Wright over 3.5 maximums but is no better than the 5/6 mark. I edge the most 180’s market though, so no price = no bet
- Wright most 180s 5/6 Skybet – 3pts
Adrian Lewis v Dave Chisnall
Dave leads the head to head 10-1-9.
Key Lockup stats – In the four PL meetings Dave has won the last two, with one draw and one defeat. Adrian’s only PL victory came in their second meeting winning 7-4. The last time they met on a TV stage was jackpot’s 7-4 defeat to Chizzy last April.
Again the best market I could find on this was recommended on Monday, so pays to follow @lockuptipster. We found evens with Betfair Sportsbook for Chisnall to win this market on maximums. Lewis’s frailties in the Premier League are well documented with out of sort inconsistent displays. Jackpot is more of a marathon player with his two world championships to his name. Chisnall last week managed to beat Thornton for the second time in less than a week and whitewashed the Scot.
The layers find this difficult to call, and remember Lewis will be throwing first so compilers have taken the view that Chisnall’s comfort in this environment could be the determining factor. The best price for my three point recommendation on Chisnall most 180s is gone, but jackpot is more than capable. With the pair often passing ten legs in their meetings, Lewis is generally reliable on the checkouts and will take a small play on a 100 or better checkout with Paddy Power at 5/6.
- Chisnall most 180s – 1/1 Betfair Sportsbook* (already advised) 3pts
- Lewis over 99.5 5/6 Paddy Power 1pt
Gary Anderson v Michael van Gerwen
Michael leads the head to head 18-0-11
Key Lockup stats – MVG has in the seven PL meetings won four, with Gary winning the other three including last years final 11-7. The last time the pair met was back in November where MVG edged out Anderson 11-10 in the European Championship finals.
It was going swimmingly for MVG at 3-0 on our bet of the week last week until he slowed up completely and blew a 3-0 lead to lose 7-4 to Wade who never played his best darts throughout, but effective enough. With Anderson unwell last week and playing at the European tour, taking any markets on will be a minefield.
One market which does appeal is basing the maximum line at 7.5 in a dozen leg game. It is expected the game will see maximums, but when MVG doesn’t need to turn the heat on, he will often peg back. Unaware of Anderson’s regime being unwell may have him below par this week, so Marathonbet at 39/40 for fewer than eight maximums is the best. In my view the lowest alternative price is 10/11 with Boylesports and two points suits us nicely.
James Wade v Phil Taylor
Phil leads the head to head 46-5-10
Key Lockup stats – The pair have met seventeen times in the PL with Phil dominating the head to head with eleven wins, four draws and two defeats. The last time Wade beat Taylor was the year the machine won it in 2009, where Wade won 8-4 in the prior format of best of fourteen. Wade’s best performance since was the 2013 campaign where the pair drew 6-6 on both occasions. This meeting has fond memories for Phil, where James was his opponent in the 2010 final, where Phil hit two nine-dart finishes in the process, narrowly missing out on the third.
Taylor looked like getting back to his best at the masters with his thrilling display, but never bought the goods forward to his defeat to Barney last Thursday.
Wade has never had much luck with Taylor and the head to head demonstrates this throughout. The compilers make Phil a shade odds on to win, with Wade semi-attractive at 5/2, although the draw does stand out at 4/1. The pair traded draws in the 2013 campaign, although Phil has Wade’s number in general.
One area James has been working on his the speed of his darts, and work with Eric Bristow with his power scoring. So much so, Phil and James are similarly priced for the opening maximum, below our target price to consider Taylor.
We did consider Wade at 5/6 for three or more maximums, but circumstantially not enough to warrant backing, although the game pace was the factor that turned us away from this, so therefore a no bet on this occasion. This is on the basis that Phil won one of the UK open qualifiers, but which Phil will be at Newcastle? Phil is not playing the weekend European Tour this weekend, which he often does not. James if he brings a similar display to the TV stage that we have seen in 2016 thus far makes this err on the side of caution to side-step this.
- No bet
- Thornton draw no bet – 7/4 Boylesports 1pt
- Wright most 180s vs Barney – 5/6 Skybet 3pts*
- Chisnall most 180s vs Lewis – 1/1 Betfair 3pts*
- Lewis – over 99.5 checkout – 5/6 Paddy Power 1pt
- MVG/Anderson – Under 7.5 180s – 39/40 Marathonbet 2pts
- Under 32.5 nights 180s – 5/6 Betfred – 2pts
*already advised on lockuptipster.weebly.com