CAN Michael Van Gerwen start 2017 with a second reign of the World Championship? We have seen MVG’s price of 6/5 on the day of the Player’s Championship at the end of November diminish to just 3/4 writes Dave South (@lockuptipster).
Defending champion Gary Anderson is 13/2 with Bwin, with Taylor up at 11/1. Peter Wright is 12/1 with Adrian Lewis 33/1 and the rest upwards in price.
It is difficult to look past Mighty Mike with his sheer dominance and resilience, layers are taking no chances with the 3/4, which sees just 2/5 to make the final, suggesting with his outright price will be less than 4/1 ON come January 2nd 2017.
With the event spread over fifteen days, there will be plenty of markets available.
Beginning with a popular ante post price is the nine dart finish. An interesting price of 8/13 for a nine-dart finish is quoted by Coral. With a nine darter every year since 2009 bar the 2012 tournament will see appeal, with 6/5 with the same firm if you oppose the perfect leg. Betfred offer 4/6 on a nine darter and 170 finish, so a slight enhancement and may interest you that the 170 has been hit at least once every year since the 2002 championships with a 1/25 price on a 170!
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The 170 finish have been priced with one or two at 7/4 with Coral. The same price for three or four and for five or more is 4/1 with Betfred and if you see a repeat of 2002, bookmaker Winner head on 12/1 for no 170 finishes! We saw six last year, so that 4/1 for five or more may appeal.
Some players have been priced up for a perfect leg, with Michael van Gerwen just 2/1 with Bet365 to hit a perfect leg at any point during his venture and as short as 7/4 with Betfred. Selected others sees Taylor 3/1 and Barney 8/1, who netted back to back World Championship nine dart finishes in 2009 and 2010 respectively.
Followers of @lockuptipster will be aware of the 16/1 selection on Peter Wright each way to win the World Championship. That price has seen been cut to 12/1 and is just 3/1 to make the final, which reflects on our equivalent 7/2 we have achieved on our each way bet in percentage terms.
Coral are offering 6/4 on the total number of sets landing on an odd number, with 1/2 on an even number. The 40% does represent a shade of value and must be considered to win this.
The total number of maximums for the event has not been priced at the time if writing, but if the 2017 produces a similar trend to 2016, we will see the record broken again. In the 2015 event we had 625 maximums. This was beaten in 2016 at 654, which included a eye watering 34 maximums in the final; the most in a final! Last year’s record was influenced on the basis that the preliminary round was extended from best of seven legs to best of three sets.
Looking at round one, I was interested in Anderson winning his game 3-0 at 7/10 with Bwin. Sadly this price has since gone.
Thursday's action has a range of specials from most 180s on the night to total maximums etc with Betfred. The 180 line on Thursday is set at 27.5, which I think is about right, hence the price. The lines combined of all four matches are 27.5 and think one or two of the matches will need to see a low count, and view two matches where this might fit, particularly the McGowan and Smith matches.
Recommendations*: Ante Post
- P Wright to win quarter 4 – 5/4 Coral 2pts
Round one early bets
- T Jenkins to beat Payne – 4/5 Hills/BetVictor 2pts
- M King to beat S West – 5/6 Betfair Sportsbook 1.5 pts
- Painter to beat Caven and both to win a set – 5/4 Betfred 1pt
- Bunting win and Norris -1.5 sets handicap – 5/4 Bwin 1pt
- G Anderson 3-0 and Corey Cadby 2-0 – 2.16 Bwin 1pt
- Thursday total 180s – Under 27.5 – 5/6 Betfred 2pts
*Based on a level stake equivalent of £10 a point.