Derby v Leeds

Skybet Championship. Kick-Off 5.30pm. Live on Sky Sports Football

A HUGE game today for both Derby and Leeds. A small home advantage to the Rams but the way Leeds put Stoke to the sword with a great 3-1 home win has shown the league their credentials. @jimpartial has already done a superb preview on this game from a Leeds perspective. Now you get one from a Rams perspective. 

Jim was spot on with his post match analysis of both teams last games. I'd put a sneak preview of my thoughts in the main thread on the 9th but I'll summarise mainly on the Derby match.

Reading dominated the first half, Derby's Keogh in central defence gave silly passes away more than once and ANY other team would of had at least two on the board come halftime. Derby grew into the game, Nugent did score first, taking a deflection from a Reading defender to beat their keeper but was ruled to be offside. (Where's VAR when you need it). Reading scored a thunderous header – deservedly.

Derby regrouped quickly and Mason Mount levelled from 20 yards courtesy of a well struck shot that bounced just before the keeper got a hand to it. Derby pushed until the final whistle and at the death of the game, a quick throw down the right wing and Derby sub Mason Benetts first touch was a pinpoint half volley/cross into the box and Lawrence's looping header left Readings keeper no chance. A nice 2-1 away win to the Rams, but we made hard work of it. Lampard said ” Reading didn't deserve to lose “. I agree.

If Derby play like that in the first half against Leeds and those sloppy passes keep happening, Leeds will be out of sight by halftime. Possibly first match nerves, possibly a bit of rustiness, but hopefully Derby will give Leeds a solid game from the first whistle to the end.

@Jimpartial sees a Leeds win and fair plays to him, he must be buoyed by the 3-1 they managed against Stoke, but I think Rowett has not got his teeth into his new team and it could be a few weeks before Stoke find their feet. So a good time to play them. Leeds price was as high as nearly 3/1 a few days back but a few quid has gone on them and most bookies are hovering around 5/2 for them to take the spoils. I'm not convinced.

Since returning to the championship 8 years ago, they've lost 10 times to us, more than any other championship side. In the last 12 visits to Derby, the Rams  have won 9, drawn 2, lost 1. Last season, this fixture ended 2-2, and Derby beat them at Elland road 2-1. The previous season saw both sides scrape a 1 nil home win against each-other.

Before Monday, I pointed out only QPR had not scored over the weekend and BTTS came up again. Since Derby always play better against bigger teams on paper, I'm sensing a Derby win. Neither side will want to lose this and both teams will want to win on their own turf; but we are top 6 rivals and if Leeds manage to sucker punch us, Derby will have to wait months for the rematch.

This match should be a hard fought battle, it has the pedigree for a thriller. There's usually cards. the ref today averages 4.25 cards per game, I can see that coming good. Derby are a bit more aggressive, both teams have goals in them and both teams can/should concede. I also think the 2nd half will see the lions share of the goals.

Please avoid the Anytime Goalscorer on this match until team news is known, Derby have made lots of new signings, mainly in attack. If your atgs pick gets brought on for the last few mins, you won't get your bet voided. Until 16:30hrs, I cannot advise on Derby's main goal threat as there could be a big shake-up particularly up front. At least we know Vydra isn't on the team sheet – for neither team !!

Recommended bets

  • Derby win @ 67/50 with BlackType
  • BTTS @ 14/19 with 10bet , Unibet , 888sport
  • Over 3.5 cards @ 4/6 with bet365 ( few bookies do cards bets, so look around, you may find better )
  • A bet that intrigues me with bet365 ( in the goals tab ) – 1st half/2nd half both teams to score – No/Yes @ 11/4 ( I'm counting on either no goals or 1 side to net in the first half, and both to score in the second )

As this is such a big game, I'd advise small stakes. If you want a punt on the atgs, I will post team news at 16:30hrs. I have little knowledge on Leeds likely culprits but know they will go into this match unchanged from their last match – so no starting slot for Patrick Bamford – thank f*&$ !!

If I see anything relevant before team news, I'll post here. Any comments particularly from Leeds fans would be appreciated.

Good luck folks.

  1. nathanufton 10 months ago

    As some of my choice bets don’t involve the big bookies, it could be a great time to snag some free bets by opening new accounts with them. All prices found were with oddschecker.
    I know bet365 have a decent cards and corners coverage but you might find a bookie that offers better prices on the cards market. I’d avoid corners bets until we’ve got several games chalked off, we need to recognise a pattern before we punt on that market.

  2. larry 10 months ago

    Wouldn’t have done the bet until you highlighted it,gone for 1st/2nd half both teams to score no/yes@11/4,juicy odds,hoping now for a 1-0 Derby win and everyone’s happy

  3. nathanufton 10 months ago

    Off the field, Derby have got the drop over Leeds in the signing of players this past few years. I know Nugent was nearly acquired by Leeds in January 2017, Leeds also showed some interest in a few other of Derby’s 9 signings this window and they lost out each time to the Rams. Vydra turned down a switch to Leeds because of his 40k a week wage demands, Leeds must feel sick at losing him. I’ve tried nailing down some goal stats for Nugent against Leeds but nothing compact and neat is coming out. 9 minutes until team news. Can’t wait.

  4. nathanufton 10 months ago

    2 changes for Derby, Curtis Davies in central defence is injured and Nugent is replaced by new signing Martin Waghorn.
    I sense a Waghorn goal on his debut.


    Derby bench: Roos (gk), Forsyth, Pearce, Johnson, Jozefzoon, Bennett, Marriott

    Tomori is a highly rated Chelsea loanee and Waghorn I think bagged 12 goals for Ipswich last season.

    Leeds starting 11 unchanged:
    Peacock-Farrell, Ayling, Cooper, Berardi, Douglas, Phillips, Saiz, Klich, Hernandez, Alioski, Roofe.
    Subs: Blackman (gk), Jansson, Roberts, Baker, Harrison, Shackleton, Bamford.

  5. nathanufton 10 months ago

    BTTS has come up early but at the expense of the ht/ft btts bet. Derby made a bright start, Leeds countered and scored, Lawrence scores minutes later from a freekick…. just as my tv feed died, missed both goals, so just have the radio to rely on. This is end to end stuff, cannot see this ending 1-1.

    • jimpartial 10 months ago

      Hi Nath,
      I`m new to posting here, thought your preview had some points that we both agreed on and both of us managed to tip a couple of winners. I never even thought about cards in such a potentially hard-fought game so well in for tipping that angle. I don`t support a team in the division, but I love following how the Championship unfolds each season. Had to work today so catch up with the game tomorrow. Both of these teams will be up there at the business end, I`m sure.
      Best of luck to you and your team for the coming season.

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