IT was a strange Saturday with some winners and losers.
I took a gamble on Southampton and Aston Villa on the teams to score 2+ and was let down by Kilmarnock who only managed one at home to Dundee.
Villa were a team I really fancied and I tipped them and Southampton up in my Daily Record column. However, I cowardly left Villa out of my aways and ended up with three out of four for a 10-1 winner. Arsenal and Hamilton came up but Aberdeen let me down.
Killie and Motherwell beat my homes but I did manage three draws at 33-1 thanks to Norwich v Swansea, Huddersfield v Peterborough and Walsall v Sheffield Utd. It was Bolton v Wolves that beat me for four.
It's a busy day in the English Premier League with five games as well as the Johnstone Paint Trophy Final and Ramsdens Cup Final in Scotland.
In Europe most of the big games were on Saturday with Real Madrid and Barcelona notching big wins and Bayern Munich clinching the German title in record quick time.
I'll post my tips in the morning but feel free to put up your thoughts here.
In December 2020 we sadly 
I’m thinking of Vertonghen and Sigurdsson for Spurs tomorrow, with Bale missing it could be a day for others to shine but like i said the other day Everton could go for the jugular tomorrow and take the win
St Etienne are long odds-on for the visit of Evian TG in France’s Ligue One this afternoon but with the red-hot Brandão suspended, they could be vulnerable.
St Etienne have climbed to fifth in the league after going 11 unbeaten in the league. They are now just a point behind Nice in fourth and three points behind Lyon who currently occupy the final remaining Champions League spot.
Christophe Galtier’s side have been held to draws in their last three though and while holding PSG at home and getting a point at Rennes isn’t too bad, they failed to beat Troyes last time and they are bottom of the league. Both Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang and Brandão netted in that game but the latter is suspended today and he has scored seven in his last eight matches.
Evian TG have recovered from a poor start to their campaign to lose just two of their last 10 league games and they are now one point clear of the relegation zone with a game in hand over Nancy, Brest and Troyes below them. The Pinks are unbeaten in four and that includes a 2-1 win at sixth placed Lille in their last away fixture.
Pascal Dupraz has a couple of players missing through injury but none as influential as who their opponents are without. They have fell to just one defeat in their last five away trips, keeping three clean sheets in that period and netting two goals themselves at Grand Stade Lille Métropole three weeks ago.
The reverse fixture finished 2-2 back in November and Evian TG actually won at St Etienne last term. The home side are very short here and I think they have to be taken on at the prices. That’s why at around the 1.51 mark, I am making them my lay of the day.
Recommended Bet
Lay St Etienne v Evian TG @ 1.51
check out the best bets as QPR host Wigan Athletic – in what is a huge clash for both sides.
As far as relegation six-pointers go, they don’t come much bigger than this – with the hosts looking increasingly likely to be kicking off next season in the second tier.
Harry Redknapp’s side have suffered unforgivable defeats at the hands of Aston Villa and Fulham in their last two games, and are now a whopping seven points from safety with just seven left to play.
The home side will be without winger Shaun Wright-Phillips, who has undergone ankle surgery this week, but other than that it appears that ‘Arry has a full complement to choose from.
Todays opponents Wigan Athletic are the side that Redknapp’s charges will need to catch – which suggests that anything other than a win here will all but condemn the R’s to the drop.
The Latics travel south full of confidence having won five of their last six, and, incredibly, it appears that Roberto Martinez is likely to engineer another miraculous last-ditch survival.
A 1-0 win at home to Norwich last week was a huge result for the DW Stadium side, and, with an extra game to play compared to many of their rivals down the bottom, todays visitors will be desperate to leave Loftus Road with a positive result.
And the away boss will be boosted by the fitness of Callum McManaman, who was withdrawn at half time last weekend due to an ankle injury, but has been passed to play against QPR.
Over 2.5 goals
With both sides desperate for the points in this clash, I have a hunch that we’ll see goals – and Over 2.5 goals is available at 1.87.
A flutter on that market would have paid out in five of QPR’s last six outings, and with 11 goals notched in their last five games, it is clear that it is not a lack of quality in the final third which has been the home side’s achilles heel of late.
‘Arry is not the most cautious of managers at the best of times, but with this game being a case of ‘do or die’, I think we will see the R’s come flying out of the traps on their own patch.
And though results have not been satisfactory in the last couple of games, Rangers have mustered a whopping 21 shots on goal, which suggests that they are capable of carving out chances.
A look at the visitors’ recent results shows that the Latics faithful have also been getting their moneys worth of late.
Backing Over 2.5 goals would have sent you home with a smile on your face in eight of their last nine games, and that is also testament to the open nature of how Martinez likes his side to line up – especially at the DW Stadium.
Both Teams To Score
With an end to end clash in the pipeline, I reckon that, though short, the BTTS market is well worth a look pre-match.
It’s no secret that QPR harbour some real quality in their squad – but even so, they are always likely to ship a goal or two, as shown in recent weeks.
Christopher Samba came in for a lot of stick last week following a disastrous performance against Fulham, and he will be looking to make amends in this clash, but I still think that the visitors have the attacking threat to put their hosts on the back foot.
A bet on this market would’ve paid out in five of QPR’s last half a dozen outings, and five of Wigan’s last seven Premier League away games.
The Latics have not been involved in a goalless draw since February 2012, and that is a telling statistic, especially as QPR have shipped a massive 14 goals in six outings of late.
It is 1.67 for these sides to notch at least one each, and that’s well worth a back.
Wigan DRAW NO BET
QPR go into this game priced as favourites – and with just two wins from their last 10 outings, and one win from nine at Loftus Road, I am struggling to see the value in backing that.
Yes – Redknapp’s side desperately need to take maximum points from this clash, but Wigan are not a side you’d want to play at this stage in the season, and with forward Arouna Koné in impressive form having notched his 10th goal of the season against Norwich, the Latics are always likely to pose a threat.
Wigan are a tempting 3.25 to take maximum points from this clash, and I think that there is real value in that bet – but for the more cautious amongst us, the 2.26 on Wigan DRAW NO BET, with added insurance should the game end in a stalemate, could tick a box.
Recommended Bets
Over 2.5 goals @ 1.87
Both Teams To Score @ 1.67
Wigan DRAW NO BET @ 2.28
Pune Warriors India v Kings XI Punjab
Start Time: Sunday 7 April, 11:30 BST
TV: Live on ITV4 and itv.com
Pune Warriors
Pune were horribly disappointing in their opening game, failing to chase down the meagre 126 posted by debutantes Sunrisers Hyderabad on Friday. After a decent effort with the ball, especially from Ashok Dinda and Bhuvneshwar Kumar, the heat of a Hyderabadi evening was unable to prevent a collective brain freeze by the batsmen as wicket after wicket was thrown away in one of the more clueless batting displays seen in the IPL. They won’t be up against bowlers like Dale Steyn in this game, but it is going to take a good deal more concentration and application if Pune are to avoid opening their home campaign with a loss.
Kings XI Punjab
Kings XI are the last team to begin their IPL campaign and will be pleased to have a relatively easy opening against one of the weaker sides. Being on the road won’t bother them, as they lost 5 of their 8 home games last season. The bigger concerns lie with their squad. Not only is it the oldest in the IPL – captain Adam Gilchrist is now 41 and four other key players are over 33 – but the bowling looks very thin, with a lot depending upon Parwinder Awana to rediscover last season’s form when he was their top wicket taker with 17 scalps. Performing well with the bat will be more important to them than many other teams, because they are going to get the run-around in the field.
Venue and conditions
Gauging performance at the Subhatra Roy Sahara Stadium in Pune is a little difficult, as the home team have been so poor in their three IPL seasons. Last season there was a curious disparity between scores there in April as opposed to May, with there being almost 20 more runs per innings in April. You should therefore expect a first innings score in the region of 145-160. It should be a hot and dry evening in Pune at the start of the game, but that temperature could plummet to around 18 degrees by the second innings.
Match odds
Pune are strong favourites at 1.66, but after the way they played on Friday it is hard not to favour the chances of Kings XI Punjab at 2.32.
Top Pune batsman
Pune surely cannot bat as badly as they did on Friday and their big names will be keen to atone for their mistakes. Marlon Samuels has been in fantastic form all year, starring in the Big Bash down in Australia and then helping the West Indies pulverise an admittedly-weak Zimbabwe side. He was out softly in the last game, for some reason guiding the ball into the hands of first slip, but won’t make that mistake here. Back him at odds of around 4.1.
Top Punjab batsman
Kings XI have a host of stars at their disposal. Opener Paul Valthaty had a tough IPL last year after being one of the stars of the 2011 competition and will be keen to get off to a good start here. The same applies to Gilchrist, although whether he can be his old explosive self when he plays so little cricket nowadays must be debatable. The man to look closely at, though, is another Australian, Luke Pomersbach. One of only two new signings by Kings XI this year, he was second top scorer in the Big Bash League and will be well priced at around 5.0
Recommended Bet
Back Luke Pomersbach at around 5.0 to be top scorer for Kings XI Punjab
Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Royal Challengers Bangalore
Start Time: Sunday 7th April, 15.30 BST
TV: Live on ITV and itv.com
Sunrisers Hyderabad
Our worst fears about this Sunrisers batting line-up seemed to be confirmed when struggling to make just 125 in their first ever IPL innings on Friday, yet it turned out to be easily enough. The fact they beat Pune, however, cannot gloss over the top-order’s deficiencies, especially whilst Shikhar Darwan is injured. At least the evidence from that opener shows that, if and when they can set a competitive target, an attack led by Dale Steyn and Amit Mishra will be capable of defending it.
Royal Challengers Bangalore
While their opening performance against Mumbai raised familiar questions, regarding Bangalore’s over-reliance on Chris Gayle and limited bowling attack, they clearly must be shortlisted for the play-offs. It is indeed hard to overstate the importance of Gayle’s unbeaten 92 to their victory, but on other days the captain will be better supported by Tillakaratne Dilshan, Virat Kohli and when he eventually arrives, AB De Villiers. Expect some very high totals from Bangalore when conditions allow.
First Innings Runs
Friday’s low-scoring match came as a surprise because Hyderabad usually offers up big totals. Even though that pitch was slow, the low total owed plenty to poor batting and the par score may well in reality have been 150. When we get a more conducive pitch, this ground will produce a run-fest. Assuming Gayle plays and Bangalore bat first, I’ll be backing over 160 and also at speculative big odds, over 180. Sunrisers, however, lack the same scoring potential and may struggle to get 160 in any conditions.
Match odds
Both of these sides pulled off miraculous comebacks in their first matches, but there was a marked difference between their achievements. Whereas Bangalore beat fellow contenders Mumbai in a classic, Sunrisers’ victory over Pune felt like a wooden-spoon contest. If they can get Gayle and Kohli out cheaply, Sunrisers have a chance. Otherwise, expect Bangalore to score too heavily for a limited batting line-up.
Top Hyderabad batsman
Thisara Perera top-scored against Pune, saving his side but the fact this all-rounder is needed at number five speaks volumes about the lack of batting depth. The openers are pretty ordinary so hopes mainly rest on Kumar Sangakkara and Cameron White. The latter was a key player last term and is a fair 5.0 chance give his class and number four position.
Top Bangalore batsman
Obviously Gayle is a short-priced favourite at 3.0 but the big man can’t excel in every game. He and Dilshan will face a stiff early test from Dale Steyn, so I’d prefer to back their other star man Virat Kohli at 4.4 to come in and steer the innings once that early threat has been negotiated.
Recommended bet
Back Bangalore @ 1.55
Everton will beat Spurs tomorrow. I can feel it in my bones. ;)
Danish 1 division dobbel.
Vejle home to beat Skive
Vest SJ home to beat Fredericia.
odds @ 2.33 at Bet365
Mr F, I had a quick look before I went for dinner, Qpr v Wigan to me screams goals, its a must win for Qpr yet I can see Wigan scoring on the counter, over 2.5 goals should come in. 3.5 goals is worth a shout. I bet Remy anytime on Monday and Will do again and like odds on Kone scoring. I’m looking at Fulham as my super single 3/1, what u think? Not looked through rest of matches yet
The chief, not convinced about Fulham who are poor on the road. But I’d agree with you about QPR v Wigan, should be a few goals.
I’m going out on a limb here but super Sunday and 5 good games in the premiership all games capable of goals goals goals…
Gonna cover all games btts not sure on returns for a ten pound stake just yet…
Torres seems to have sparked into life with something to hide behind, his mask… 2 goals in Europe in the week and fancy him to net again…
Toon army play Fulham and and recon high scoring game is on the cards…
Newcastle
Liverpool
Chelsea
Everton
Wigan all to win and btts
Wat you think guys
Daleboi, not sure about the fivefold at all. Would worry about Sunderland at Chelsea even with Paolo di Canio there and also West Ham at on-form Liverpool. Spurs v Everton could be low scoring with a few forwards missing from both line-ups.
Don’t you think with the loss of key players the teams have got to show they can score without the standard playmakers… Just a thought… I won a tidy sum last time Liverpool played west ham all be it it was at the hammers home ground and did ht west ham ft Liverpool at 28/1 in coral… Had the same last week with Aston villa ht Liverpool ft… Wat u think about all 5 to win in previous comment mr f…
Daleboi, I’ll have tips on the games, looking at them now and in the morning. But you take away some of the most creative players such as Bale and Fellaini and I don’t know how you can see more goals in the game. For me it’s under 2.5 goals with the players missing.
Fair point don’t see a big scoring game just one each is enough for btts so will stick it with the others and see how it gets on will have a look at your views in the morning… Thanks 4 the advice again…
Daleboi, Premier League tips are up now, top tips before or after lunchtime depending whether I get time before going to my boy’s football in the morning. At first glance my treble will be from St Etienne, Napoli, Liverpool, Chelsea and Valencia. Super Single could be Nuremberg or Inter Milan. For both teams to score it could be QPR v Wigan, Napoli v Genoa and Celta Vigo v Vallecano. I quite like the French games at Lille and St Etienne but likely to leave them out.
Paul, ya away up to Murray Park 2moro with the young fella? great stuff. do ya need to wear the blazer n tie up there then or is normal polished shoes n formal dress ok? :-)
think fellaini and pienaar are still out for everton and bale possibly lennon out for spurs, think this will be a draw 1-1
Craig, I’m thinking 1-1 or maybe even 0-0 but it’s safer to go with under 2.5 goals.
Ya on Record duty tonite Paul?
Guido, was doing a late shift at the Sunday Mail. Should have been the last day of my hols but they were short of bodies. Back on the Record tomorrow night for a couple of days then off again Tuesday-Thursday so not too bad.
Man!!..im in the wrong job Paul…all you lads with holidays n bonuses coming oot yer ears!! ;-)
Spurs slip up would be a beauty tmo!
SURELY AT LEAST 1 OF THEM WILL WIN
Premier League 5 Homes
Liverpool – Tottenham – Chelsea – Newcastle – QPR
Anytime Goalscorers
Suarez
Cisee
Remy
European
Nordid 4 Fold
Stromsgodset – Ranheim – Sundsvall – Copenhagen
Treble – StEtienne – Udinese – Oostende
-1 Treble – Napoli – Anzhi – Ajax
Segunda Treble – Villarreal – Almeria – Girona
Aways Treble – Lyon – Olympiacos – AthelticoMadrid
Evens Double – Asteras – Gothenborg
Dreaded 8pm Double – Valencia – Lille
Single – Lillestrom
Over 2.5 Goals 4 Fold
DinamoKiev – Shakhtar
Eskisehirspor – Sivasspor
Sogndal – Rosenborg
Salzburg – StrumGraz
Both 2 Score
Nurnberg – Mainz
Siena – Parma
Gronigen – Heerenveen
Osasuna – Espanyol
Obscure Both 2 Score
Halmstads – Elfsborg
Kuban – RubinKazan
Strommen – Sandefjord
Ljungskile – Hammarby
StGallen – Basel
Anytime Goal Scorers Double
Gonzalo Bergessio (Catania)
Mame Biram Diouf (Hannover)
Nordic Anytime Scorers Treble
Ronnie Schwartz (Randers)
Abderrazak Hamdallah (Aalesund)
Henok Goitom (AIK)
Qn o south 2/1
Wisla 1/1
Eskisehirspor 1/1
Atl Madrid 17/20
Few knicker for 44.
Be kicking ma own balls if this comes in and a never put a tenner on it. A wins a win all the same. Should be a rite good game qn ae south v Patrick
Your anytime scorers could be worth a punt Danny boy whats the price for the 3 mate
the 3 EPL scorers pays about 9/1 mate that’s a bad turn with the both 2 score coming so close better 2 than 1 letting you down right enough
hunners of games the night to choose from
English games Suarez, cisse, Remy
lol @ danny….good luck mate, surley 1 will do it.
Im no sure what take today yet. not had a proper look.
Paul, very unlucky with that 4 draws but to nail even 3 draws is good going!
Stevie H, three pays not bad but would be nice to hit four once before the end of the season.
Nords
Olympiakos
Ajax
Zenit
Stevie a wouldn’t be overly shocked if they all got beat the way my football betting luck has gone yet to finalize my own picks only thing if you like looking all over Europe the amount off teams who look good for a win make your head spin sometimes do big accumulators because I think al just add them and them they will all win
Danny couple a pound mate on those 3. Thought it would be roundabout that price.
They don’t usually come up the big lines. But when they do it’s a good buzz must admit. Your rite mate 2 is better than one. Anyway like they 4 a have picked zenit up first must be about 5/1 for the 4. 5 note on that hopefully build a small pot for late evening games
aye mate the 4 of them should win its about 4/1 they pay William Hill probably not a bad idea starting with 4 early kick offs and building your pot up sure as hell beats our efforts in olden days sitting on a Saturday and Sunday with about 25 betting slips between us and god knows how many through out the week lol
Danny seen u got a good win on machines. Good stuff. Who was the lucky one at the seat mate
Maw was at the lucky seat I was doing no bad on the machine next to it then ended up losing it all out my box too stupid at the time to realise it wasn’t paying out
I mate that’s the plan Dan. C how it goes just hope it pays off. Seen some good picks for later games if a get the 4 up or ma jail bate4 up. Olden days what a laugh sitting with 2 pound on 5 teams for 300 back an all that crazy mad shot mate.
Polly dolly seems to do ok on machines. U need to know when to stop mate.
Noticed some of you are doing a bet in the scottish challenge cup final today,i fancy Partick myself given their long unbeaten streak against teams of a little higher quality than QOS face each week but theres a stat and a good price you may have overlooked…each of the last 3 rounds in the cup for qos have gone into extra time,for the same to happen today you get
QOS WIN EXTA TIME 11/1
PARTICK WIN EXTRA TIME 10/1
BOTH ARE 12/1 WIN ON PENS………one of these lines may be worth considering with a small wager at good odds,GOOD LUCK.
the days first bet will be a dobble. with a Thai football team and a danish.
BEC Tero Sasana to win at home
FC Vestsjælland to win at home
odds @ 2.71 at Bet365.
a 80% chance to dobble your money and more.
See you on the other side :)
Bundesliga 7th April
Nurnberg – Mainz H2.38 D3.25 A2.96
KO 15:30
Nurnberg are 11th in the Bundesliga, but have won 3 and drawn 5 of last 8. Two of the last three have been wins, including 3-0 last time they played at home to Schalke.
Mainz are 8th and are also pretty hard to beat on recent form – they’ve won 1 and drawn 6 of their last 7.
Nurnberg have a 5 / 6 / 2 record at home, so, they’re as tough to beat at home as anyone in the league bar Bayern, but, since 6 of their 13 home games have ended up draws, they don’t always put the game to bed, and Mainz’s away record is 3 / 5 / 5. So, they’re no gimme…
With Nurnberg at home, this fixture has brought up a draw in the Bundesliga 3 of last 4 times they’ve played.
The 3-0 win over Schalke last time worries me, but Mainz’s defence is a lot more miserly away than Shalke’s.
This one is either too hard to call, or all the stats are pointing one way…
It’s a draw.
Hannover – VfB Stuttgart H2.30 D3.34 A3.01
KO 17:30
Hannover are 5th best home side in Bundesliga after the four you’d expect – Bayern, Dortmund, Leverkusen and Schalke – their home record is W8 D3 L2 F28 A15. The last tine they lost at home was 17th November. Since then, home record is 5 wins and a draw. The draw was last time out against Freiburg, who are fourth best away side in the Bundesliga.
Stuttgart are fifth best away side over the season, W6 D2 L6 F15 A23, but a large proportion of the winning part of that record was achieved early doors. Recent results in all games are lost seven of last ten and three of last four. Two wins and one draw in the others. The two wins have been away at decent mid-table-ish sides, Eintracht and Hoffenheim, but Hannover are a step up at home.
Home win Hannover.
It would be a nice double – I’m on it. Pays at 3.25 x 2.3 = 7.48
Queens Park have failed to score against Rangers in 3 meetings this season. BTS no is evs.