Arsenal v Man United, Sunday, 4pm, live Sky Sports 1

MAN UTD wrapped up the Premier League title last Monday night and punters have been rushing to back top four-chasing Arsenal to win on Sunday afternoon.

There's been a bit of a gamble on Arsenal – and I think those backers might be on to something.

The thinking behind the bet is United will have a lost a little of their edge since achieving their last remaining major goal of the season.

From my experience it is an entirely human reaction to take your foot off the gas and relax a bit after winning the league.

United, of course, are chasing Chelsea's record points haul of 95, achieved in 2004-05 but that may not be such a strong motivator as winning a league title. We'll see.

Sir Alex Ferguson may switch the personnel around in a bid to keep his team fresh and playing at a high level but one man we will see is Monday night's hat-trick hero, Robin van Persie. The Dutch ace will relish going back to his old club and I suspect Fergie will play him if that is the case.

It would be nice to think he'll get a good reception from the Arsenal faithful after more than eight years of service in the shirt but there are a lot of bitter people in the stands because he left and, worse still, went to United.

For me, the way to go about it would be to give him a round of applause and get on with supporting your own team because a win in this match would go a long way to securing Champions League football next year.

With all due respect to the Gunners' opponents after this game – QPR, Wigan and Newcastle – they don't make the most intimidating fixture list.

Arsenal have done the hard work in the last few months, putting together a very strong run of results to sit in third place ahead of this game. They are in good form, score plenty at home and need the points more than United.

A fast start is essential on Sunday afternoon. If United's minds aren't focused, Arsenal could soon hold a lead and the extra desire should take them to a big win.

They'll have to do that without Oliver Giroud, who is suspended until the last game of the season, and I expect to see Theo Walcott up front. His pace is a huge danger to United and I fancy Theo will grab his chance to stake a claim for the forward role on a permanent basis.

His skills should contribute to an entertaining encounter and it's not hard to envisage the over 2.5 goal barrier will be breached.

Recommended Bets

Back Arsenal to win @ 2.28
Back Walcott to score @ 2.9
Back over 2.5 goals @ 1.8

Reading v QPR, Sunday, 1.30pm, live Sky Sports 1

I'M sure when the good folk at Sky decided to televise this match they envisaged at least one of these teams would still be in with a shot of survival.

Instead we are left with a scenario where any loser will be relegated, while the only reward for the winner is to survive for another week or two.

The worst result for all concerned is the draw, which could see both teams relegated if Aston Villa were to get a point on Monday.

All of which suggests a game where both teams will go at it with reckless abandon. The chances are they will both get relegated anyway so why not go down swinging?

Both sides teams are in shocking form considering they're meant to have been fighting for survival. In Reading's defence, they at least have the excuse their players really aren't good enough for the Premier League. Just one point from the last 27 is surely confirmation of this.

QPR have talent within their squad but the ill-considered way it has been put together has not been conducive to producing a team. They started March with back-to-back wins but have since lost four and drawn one of their next five games.

Where both teams have been consistent is the amount of goals their games have produced. Some 11 of Reading's last 14 games have produced over 2.5 goals while QPR have done likewise in four of their last seven matches.

With so much on the line it would be disappointing if both sides weren't throwing the kitchen sink at each other, so over 2.5 goals at 1.92 and the 1.71 for both teams to score, look like shrewd investments.

When it comes to who will score, the only player in any sort of form in front of goal is QPR's Loic Remy. Even so, the 2.3 on offer for the French striker to find the net looks a bit short. The 6.2 for him to score first looks a better bet.

Reading score a lot of late goals so it is QPR who are likelier to open the scoring and can be backed to do so at 2.1. The home side are priced at 1.95 to score the last goal.

It's really no wonder Reading are bottom of the league when you consider they have conceded the first goal in 21 of their 34 games. Given the season these two teams have had it would be no surprise if the produced the result that neither wants – a draw.

The half-time QPR/full-time draw double result is available at 15.0 and could be worth a small stakes bet.

Perhaps the most pertinent market to examine as these two scrap it out at the foot of the league is Betfair's Rock Bottom market. Reading are the 1.67 favourites, with QPR at 2.4.

While they're both level on points and are separated by just one goal, it is Reading who have the tougher fixtures, with their next home game against Manchester City. Therefore, the odds look about right.

All in all, this game probably has more meaning as a sort of pre-season friendly between two of the contenders for the 2013-14 Championship title, than it does over the relegation battle.

Recommended Bets

Back Over 2.5 Goals at 1.92
Back Loic Remy to score first at 6.2
Back QPR half-time/the draw full-time at 15.0

Milesey (Betfair)

13 Comments
  1. Mat H 8 years ago

    Think united are a fantastic price at 11/5 and that’s where my money will be going arsenal have been unconvincing last few games was poor against Everton and very lucky to get the win at fulham with no pressure on united and the title wrapped up fergie will want a strong finish to the season to try and break the record for number of points accumulated in a season.

    • ste corrin 8 years ago

      I dont usually go against Mileseys tips but I agree with Mat H. United are too big to not back. Playing with no pressure and nothing to lose, and RVP wanting to make a point, i see it being a high scoring utd win. Won just over a ton on UFC earlier, which doesnt happen very often, so gonna pile it all on a utd win. Was tempted to go for utd and over 3.5 but thats just greedy and stupid, the odds for the straight win are big enough!!

  2. madi 8 years ago

    think i may try my luck at another wincast, looking at rvp/man u at 10/1

  3. flyboivince 8 years ago

    my selections for tomorrow 28th april
    double
    Fc Astana to win
    Metalurg Skopje to win

    Pays 2.29

    Treble
    Busan I park to win
    Busaiteen to win
    El zamalek to win

    Pays 3.525

    Trixie
    Qingdao Jonoon to win
    Zenith to win
    Supersport united to win

    Thats all from me yet again

    best of luck

  4. celtic 67 8 years ago

    top treble
    man utd win
    motherwell win
    qpr win

    and add juventus win for 4 fold

  5. celtic 67 8 years ago

    bts treble
    man utd
    m
    celtic
    qpr

    bonkers bet
    higdon to score 1st and motherwell 2-1

  6. Daniel 8 years ago

    You copied these tips from lee dixons betfair page!

    • Milesey 8 years ago

      Cause Lee Dixon really sits down and types out his articles for BETFAIR doesn’t he hahahahaha ;) ;)

      Milesey

      ( betfair )

    • Mr Fixit 8 years ago

      Daniel, have you checked to see who wrote our piece. That’s right, it’s Milesey from Betfair.

  7. Milesey 8 years ago

    ARSENAL v MANCHESTER UTD

    Arsenal are unbeaten in seven in the Premier League and have won five of their last seven home league matches, drawing twice in that time against Everton and Liverpool. Wenger’s men have a one-point advantage over Chelsea and are two ahead of North London rivals Spurs heading into the home straight, but both of their foes have the advantage of a game in hand.

    Arsenal goalkeeper Lukasz Fabianski remains sidelined, while midfielder Abou Diaby is a long-term absentee and striker Olivier Giroud starts a three-match ban. Wenger may move Theo Walcott up front, affording Gervinho or Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain the chance of a start on the right while Nacho Monreal and Kieran Gibbs continue to vie for a role at left-back.

    Man United have strolled to the Premier League title this season and have lost only twice on the road all season, on the opening day at Everton and against Norwich back in November. They have won 23 of their last 28 matches in the Premier League and are the first team to be crowned champions with four games to spare since Arsenal’s unbeaten season in 2003-04.

    Sir Alex Ferguson is expected to freshen up his Manchester United starting line-up after his men secured the latest title at Villa on Monday. Anyway Ferguson remains focused on securing the four wins available that would secure his club a record points haul in the Premier League. With Smalling and Vidic both carrying knocks, it is likely to be between Ferdinand, Evans and Jones for the two starting centre-back spots

    Van Persie scored a hat-trick on Monday night to seal Manchester United’s 20th league title and edge him even closer to the Golden Boot with Luis Suarez on the sidelines after biting off more than he can chew against Chelsea. The last two meetings between these two sides have finished 2-1 to the Champions with Van Persie scoring in both, one for either side.

    Man Utd have kept a clean sheet in 8 of their last 10 matches in the Premier League while Arsenal have kept just four clean sheets in their last 16 Premier League games at the Emirates Stadium. Arsenal have won just one of their last 11 matches against United in all competitions.

    ARSENAL v MANCHESTER UTD: PROBABLE LINEUPS

    Arsenal (4-2-3-1): Szczesny; Sagna, Mertesacker, Koscielny, Monreal; Wilshere, Arteta; Rosicky, Podolski, Cazorla; Walcott.

    Manchester United (4-2-3-1): De Gea; Rafael, Jones, Ferdinand, Evra; Carrick, Rooney; Welbeck, Kagawa, Valencia; Van Persie.

    Arsenal @ 2.30
    Both teams to score @ 1.67
    3:2 Correct Score @ 26.00
    Walcott anytime goalscorer @ 3.40

    “” WRITTEN BY TONY ADAMS, DONKEY FOUNDATION AMBASSADOR ”

    Milesey

  8. Milesey 8 years ago

    Title processions have been few and far between in recent years but trawl a little further back through the history books and you’ll find that Sir Alex Ferguson is being a tad optimistic in setting Manchester United the target of a new Premier League points record with the prize already in the bag.

    The Red Devils can finish the campaign on 96 points if they win their remaining four matches but anything less and Chelsea’s haul of 95 in 2004/05 will remain intact, and we think there’s value to be had in Arsenal ending the matter on Sunday by taking the spoils in their much more tangible quest of securing Champions League football.

    Since the turn of the Millennium, the loss ratio of newly-crowned champions in meaningless end-of-season encounters is 32 per cent, which doesn’t sound too bad until you realise that those teams in question lost only eight per cent of matches on their way to the title. In short, champions are four times more likely to lose after the job is complete.

    Perhaps the best example of a post-champagne collapse was provided by United themselves in 2000/01. They won the title with five games to spare that season but then failed to beat a soon-to-be-relegated Manchester City side at Old Trafford in their next outing before closing out the campaign with three defeats on the spin.

    So history favours Arsenal’s quest for a top-four finish and though their poor record against the rest of the top six this term is a worry – W1 D3 L5 – it’s not enough to put us off the 2.18 available on the home win given the time of year and what’s at stake for Arsene Wenger’s men.

    The fact United need maximum points can work in Arsenal’s favour because we can rest assured that the Red Devils won’t hold back in their pursuit of victory if the game is finely-poised late on. In that scenario, the visitors would resort to kamikaze football leaving the back door wide open.

    The Gunners will be without the suspended Olivier Giroud but they do tend to share the goals around nowadays with Santi Cazorla, Theo Walcott and Lukas Podolski all capable of offering the necessary cutting edge in the Frenchman’s absence. So don’t baulk at odds of 2.18, there’s simply no better time for Arsenal to fulfil this fixture.

    Back Arsenal to beat Man Utd at 2.18

    “” WRITTEN BY PAUL MERSON, CHAIRMAN OF AA “”

    Milesey

  9. MUZZA 8 years ago

    Written by 2 alchies!! Hahahaha

    Get your money on United and RVP anytime double at 8/1

  10. gunner 8 years ago

    im with you milesey a arsenal win is coming

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