Unión Santa Fe v Lanús, Monday, 8pm
LANUS look every inch the champions of Argentina this season and Guillermo Barros Schelotto will surely become a widely-coveted manager when he finally is crowned a league winning coach in his first job.
Unión have won a couple of games this season (literally a couple) but are still 100 per cent going down. A year of being outgunned leaves them with few fond memories of their stay in the top flight barring a win against Boca last month but you can expect no repeat of that sort of result against Lanús.
No continental commitments have helped Lanús's cause this season and a surprise exit from the Copa Argentina has further concentrated them on the league so there is no reason why Lanús would slip up at lowly Unión having already beaten three of the top five.
Recommended Bet
Back Lanús at 1.98
Milesey (Betfair)
Resident football tipster at Scotland's most read newspaper, the Daily Record, for over 20 years and proud host of one the best betting communities on the web with daily betting tips.
******************************************************
******************************************************
Monday 22nd APRIL 2013
———————-
Milesey’s TIPS
—————
SPAIN: Primera Division 9:00 k/o
Celta Vigo V Zaragoza
DRAW @ 12/5
————————
ARGENTINA: Primera Division 8:00 k/o
Union Santa Fe V Lanus
LANUS WIN @ 10/11
————————
ENGLAND: Blue Square South 7:45 k/o
Chelmsford V Maidenhead
CHELMSFORD WIN @ 2/5
————————
PORTUGAL: Portuguese Liga 8:00 k/o
Olhanense V Guimaraes
GUIMARAES WIN @ 21/10
————————-
FRANCE: Ligue 2
Monaco V Clermont 7:40 k/o
MONACO WIN @ 2/5
Milesey
**********************************************************
**********************************************************
4:30 K/0
The Veikkausliga is underway again in Finland. Nine of FC Honka’s last 14 home games (of last season) produced Over 2.5 Goals and so did each of HJK Helsinki’s final six on the road.
Recommended Bet: Back Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.3 in Honka v HJK Helsinki
Milesey
Iceland 8:00 K/O
Start of the new Urvalsdeild campaign draws closer, four clubs are contesting the semi finals of the League Cup.
Stjarnan travle to Valur in positive form this season, and just one loss from their last four on the road will have Logi Olafsson’s side eyeing a place in the final of this competition.
The Gardabaer side have certainly been amongst the goals following the winter break – and 12 notches in four away from Stjornuvollur is a decent return at any level.
That makes three wins from four games for the Blues – a run that they will be keen to maintain as they approach the new league season.
Hosts Valur line up for this one in decent form themselves, having won their last six consecutive games in this competition.
But Magnus Gylfason’s side have managed just two clean sheets in their previous 12 games at the Hlidarendi, and I think that could cost them as they face a side brimming with attacking confidence.
Stjarnan have won the last three meetings between these two sides, and I’m backing the visitors to book their place in the final tonight.
Back Stjarnan @ 2.0
Milesey
( betfair )
IPL CRICKET – MONDAY 3:30 START
——————————–
Chennai Super Kings v Rajasthan Royals
live on ITV4
Chennai
The Super Kings are aiming for a third consecutive win following victories over Kolkata Knight Riders and Delhi Dardevils. However, their batting frailties continue to worry their supporters. Kolkata were restricted to 119 – there is nothing wrong with Chennai’s bowling – but the chase was bizarre. Chennai crawled along and then suffered an almighty collapse which saw KKR tarde as favourites. If it wasn’t for Ravi Jadeja’s 14-ball 36, they would have lost.
Rajasthan
The Royals were given a seven-wicket duffing by Royal Challengers Bangalore last time out. It was only their second defeat as the Royals have proved any doubters wrong. But they were well off the pace in Bangalore and this time round they should show a bit more class. The Royals need Shane Watson to stand up and be counted. He has only 74 runs in four innings. Now could be the tie to give former England player, Owais Shah, a go.
First-innings runs
Here are the last 13 innings at the MA Chidambaram Stadium (most recent last): 112-205-164-146-156-139-160-114-222-190-148-165-159. That is an average of bang-on 160 over a healthy study period. We would expect Chennai to post 160 or more and that is a fair bet at around even money. But we might go under for the Royals. They have posted more than 160 five times in their last 12 first-innings.
Match odds
The Royals are a solid, unspectacular trustworthy outfit under the stewardship of the esteemed Rahul Dravid. And we do not hesitate in getting with Dravid’s crew at a whopping 2.56. Chennai are 1.59 because of the star names in their squad but they cannot match the Royals endeavour. Throughout the tournament we have seen bristling Chennai arrogance and most of the time they have got away with it. Maybe not this time. If Rajasthan can bat first and post 150, then we would expect to see more batting brittleness from the hosts. At some stage the Royals should trade as favourites – under 2.00 – and that will give us enough clicks to get out of the wager.
Top Chennai runscorer
So cocky are Chennai these days that they opened last time with Ravi Ashwin, the spinner. Ashwin can bat but it almost backfired. We predicted Chennai would shuffle their top order in the preview for game against KKR but even that surprised us. If Chennai are to do the same again, Albie Morkel might be a better choice. Keep an eye on his price. But Mike Hussey and Murali Vijay will probably be Nos 1 and 2.
Top Rajasthan runscorer
There’s not much point looking past the Royals’ Mr Realiables. Anjinkya Rahane, who was our tip for top tournament runscorer, is going nicely with 210 runs. Dravid has 180 and Brad Hodge is next best with 128.
Recomended Bet
Back-to-lay Rajsthan at 2.56
Milesey
( betfair )
Bayern Munich v Barcelona: Bundesliga’s best are the value bet ahead of Champions League semi……………
You don’t often find Bayern Munich outsiders to win a game or qualify from a tie, but their credentials are clear and I can’t resist going with the German champions ahead of Tuesday night’s meeting with Barcelona
“I bet my arse that Bayern will be calling up Guardiola” was Borussia Dortmund coach Jürgen Klopp’s wisecrack after his Bundesliga rivals drew Barcelona in the semi-finals of the Champions League. Affronted by his cheek, Bayern made a wager themselves. “Klopp’s arse,” said vice-president Karl-Heinz Rummenigge, “will end up in the Bayern museum. He should have bet his hair transplant. It would be easier to transport than his arse.”
Talking out of it or not, Klopp simply said what many people were thinking when Bayern and Barcelona’s names were pulled out the hat. A common reaction to it was: “Oh, now that could be awkward.”
Guardiola is the elephant in the room and with that mischief Klopp had reminded everyone of it. Resentful of the implication that he couldn’t mastermind a plan of his own to beat Barcelona, Bayern coach Jupp Heynckes said: “I don’t need anyone’s help studying an opponent. I ask for respect.”
This underlying narrative to the tie gives it a certain fascination, particularly from a psychological point of view. For instance, how must Guardiola feel? You’d imagine that, for all that he’s a professional and a man of great integrity, he might still feel conflicted and torn by it. He’s only human after all. Wouldn’t a Barcelona win over both legs be in his interests too? You’d definitely think it’d make his job at Bayern next season that little bit easier.
As for Heynckes, well, were he to oust Barcelona from the competition, you might argue that it’d be like beating Guardiola by proxy, that it would make a statement along the lines of: we already have our own winning philosophy, what do we need his for? Further to that it would reinforce the growing doubt as to how exactly Guardiola can improve this team to say nothing of leading to a groundswell of sympathy for Heynckes at being pensioned off despite a record-breaking season.
The exchange has Barcelona as favourites to qualify from this tie and for the final at 1.84. That’s understandable, but it strikes me as perhaps a touch too respectful of everything they’ve achieved over the last four-and-a-half seasons. Barcelona have ‘only’ won one of their last five Champions League games. That, lest we forget, was the ‘reports of our demise have been greatly exaggerated’ performance against Milan in the Round of 16 when they overturned a 2-0 first leg defeat with a 4-0 win in the second.
Lionel Messi, you might say, got them out of jail on that occasion and he did once again in the final half-hour of their quarter-final against Paris Saint-Germain when he shrugged off an injury to come on and inspire his teammates to find the equaliser they needed to go through on away goals.
With that in mind there’s no hyperbole in saying Barcelona haven’t been as convincing as in recent years and you suspect that their defensive frailties – Carles Puyol and Javier Mascherano are injured while Adriano is suspended – will come under more exacting scrutiny than they have done by anyone else this season when they meet Bayern at the Allianz Arena.
Saturday’s 6-1 away win at Hannover was a Bundesliga record 26th this season and was their ninth in a row on the road. If winning the Meisterschale already hadn’t allowed Bayern to focus on the Champions League, then going 3-0 up inside 40 minutes at the weekend did at least permit Heynckes to bring some of his stars off early so that their legs are fresh for Tuesday night.
The only concerns they have are as follows: Mario Mandzukic, their top scorer, is suspended for the first leg while Toni Kroos, their chief technician, a player as important for his passing as Mandzukic is for his pressing is injured. Their absences will be felt, particularly given the assumption that the attributes they have are the kind that would allow Bayern to impose themselves and maybe even dictate the terms of the tie.
So powerful has this team shown itself to be, though, that a defeat at home seems unlikely. Bayern at this moment in time look more than a match for Barcelona. On that note, back them to win on the night at 2.3 and to qualify at 2.16.
Recommended Bets
Bayern to win at 2.3
Bayern to qualify at 2.16
Milesey
( betfair )
Borussia Dortmund v Real Madrid
Wednesday 19:45, live on Sky Sports 2
After watching an exquisitely executed and well-timed ‘falling leaf’ of a free-kick from Mesut Özil bounce in off the post in the 88th minute of their second encounter with Borussia Dortmund in the group stages of the Champions League this season, a goal that rescued his Real Madrid team from the brink of defeat at home, coach José Mourinho made a prediction. “If they go through,” he said, “they are candidates to win the tournament.”
Dortmund had been unlucky to draw 2-2 at the Bernabéu. The consensus was that they’d deserved to go back-to-back against Real. And it was now abundantly clear, if any further proof were necessary, that their 2-1 victory at the Westfalenstadion a fortnight earlier had been no fluke. Dortmund had taken four points off Real and would unexpectedly win this season’s Group of Death in the Champions League. Coach Jürgen Klopp and his team were hailed across Europe.
The question is: can they repeat the feat when it really matters in the knock-out stages? A glance at the exchange reveals that the market isn’t as confident as you might expect after those performances in the winter.
Real are slight favourites to win at the Westfalenstadion on Tuesday. They’re trading at 2.62 to Dortmund’s 2.88. The nine-time winners are even shorter to qualify too at 1.49 whereas the German pretenders can be backed at 3.0.
Why is that then? Well, just like in 1998 when these sides last met in the Champions League semi-finals, Real are out of the title face in La Liga and this is their sole focus. They went through then, albeit after a farcical first leg, which was delayed for 75 minutes when a goal collapsed before kick-off at the Bernabéu, an incident that led Dortmund, who lost 2-0 on the night, to protest and ask that they be awarded a 3-0 win by default. UEFA refused and Real, after drawing 0-0 in Germany, went through to the final where they beat Juventus to win the competition.
Will history repeat itself? Real can be backed to lift the trophy for a historic 10th time at 3.3. Mourinho, you suspect, will also be under no illusion as to the significance of how the outcome of this tie will define his legacy at the club. But wait a minute: Aren’t Dortmund in more or less the same situation as Real? The success or failure of their season rests on this tie too. The Bundesliga has gone. So too has the German Cup. It all comes down to this.
Klopp also knows how to beat them. In an interview with El País before Real Madrid played Manchester United in the Round of 16, he revealed his game plan. “We knew where they send their passes, how they look for Cristiano,” Klopp said. “Our plan was to take Xabi Alonso out of the game. Because if Alonso is allowed to play how he wants it’s impossible to defend against Madrid. And Götze covered him. We knew that if our wide players, Piszczek and Schmelzer move a lot, the advantage was ours on Cristiano’s side of the pitch. If you block Xabi, you oblige Pepe to always keep the ball.”
One expects, though, that Mourinho will have prepared a series of counter-measures. He’s no fool. After playing two games against Dortmund, you anticipate that he will have figured them out. Remember, Mourinho’s Inter side drew and lost to Barcelona in the group stages before surprisingly knocking them in the semi-finals back in 2010. They’d clearly learnt from their earlier experiences against them and that was to their advantage.
Having said that, Dortmund have won all of their Champions League home games this season, while Real have claimed victory on the road just twice: first away to Ajax then at Manchester United when, as Mourinho sai,d “the best team lost.” One nil down, they turned things around to win 2-1 only after Nani’s sending off.
With that in mind, why not back Dortmund to win at 2.88.
Recommended Bets
Back Dortmund to win @ 2.88
Milesey
( betfair )
Info about Unión Santa Fe v Lanús :
TEAM NEWS
Union’s last match was a 1-1 draw away to Independiente which left their opponents without a manager but didn’t really help Union all that match in their seemingly impossible struggle to avoid relegation. They didn’t pick up any suspensions or injuries.
Lanus beat All Boys last weekend, 2-1, with a last minute winner from Silvio Romero, and don’t have any players suspended here. On Wednesday, they travelled to Chaco Province, to play Atletico Rafaela in the Copa Argentina, and were surprised by Rafaela’s reserves, losing 1-0 and going out of the domestic cup.
Union
Suspended:
Doubtful:
Injured/unavailable: Diego Jara (left foot)
Lanus
Suspended:
Doubtful:
Injured/unavailable:
MATCH PREVIEW
Union had a bit of a pick-up in form a few weeks ago, but have fallen off more recently, and are without a win in three games. Two draws recently against Argentinos and Independiente don’t suggest much confidence coming into a game against the still unbeaten team. Union have two wins, four draws and three defeats, whilst Lanus have won six and drawn three.
What’s more, both of Union’s wins (against Boca Juniors and Tigre) were away from home, so in spite of having ended that ten month winless streak, they’re still without a home win in their sixteen attempts. Lanus haven’t lost away in four matches, since they played River on the penultimate weekend of the Torneo Inicial. What’s more, the leaders enjoyed something of the ‘luck of champions’ last time out after a frankly undeserved last minute winner from Silvio Romero against All Boys.
Lanus have the second best attack, and the best defence in the league, whilst Union’s figures in both respects are pretty middle-of-the-range, and their attack in particular is distinctly unimpressive at home, where they’ve scored just twice in four games.
All in all, it seems like a pretty simple one to call, this: Lanus should win, whether luckily or otherwise.
Monaco vs Clermont
Title favourites to march on
TEAM NEWS
Monaco welcome back left-back Georgi Tzavellas after suspension. He should add quality at both ends of the field as he’s a good defender and also takes excellent set-pieces. Yannick Ferreira Carrasco is likely to keep his place after scoring both goals in Monaco’s 2-0 win at Auxerre last weekend.
Clermont left-back Emmanuel Imorou and striker Romain Armand are out. Coach Regis Brouard has also lost left winger Pierrick Capelle to suspension after the former Quevilly player got sent off against Le Havre last weekend. Centre-half Cedric Avinel is out as well.
Monaco
Suspended: None
Doubtful: None
Injured/unavailable: Sebastian Ribas (shin), Stephane Dumont (knee)
Clermont
Suspended: Pierrick Capelle, Cedric Avinel
Doubtful: Jacques Salze (groin), Cedric Bockhorni (groin), Mehdi Jeannin (knee), Romain Armand (hamstring), Emmanuel Imorou (groin)
Injured/unavailable: None
MATCH PREVIEW
Monaco took another step towards promotion with an excellent 2-0 win at Auxerre last weekend. It had been coming: Monaco may have managed only a 1-1 draw at home to Niort the previous week but in that match they created enough chances to win several times over, so it was no surprise to see them take out their frustrations on Auxerre last weekend. And this week Real Madrid manager Jose Mourinho has been linked with a move to the Principality if and when Monaco finally clinch their place in the top flight next season. According to reports, Mourinho would become the highest-paid manager in the world if he moves to Monaco.
Clermont are just about keeping themselves out of the relegation zone but were disappointed to only draw 1-1 at home to Le Havre last weekend. Clermont were the better side for much of the game but having gone ahead shortly after an hour they conceded a stunning free-kick with 14 minutes on the clock and were unable to score a late winner.
Clermont’s best hope of getting a result here is the fact they have one of the division’s better away records (W4-D8-L4) but in all honesty there is a gulf in class between these sides if you look at them man-for-man. The only way Monaco will drop points is if they suffer from the same profligacy that afflicted them against Niort a fortnight ago and it’s hard to see the same issue hitting them twice in quick succession.
Monaco are the smart pick.
Milesy, guessing you don’t fancy Slavia Prague to win as you only included Stjarnan from Jonno’s home and away double?
haha, that one isn’t for me, i questioned the reasoning behind it, to me thats in there to bust the double and get punters money. but i shouldn’t be saying that really, if anything i would see a draw in that game, and he has chosen a tricky game, see alot better home wins today then that tricky encounter !
Milesey
( betfair )
Chelmsford and Monaco, would be top of my list today for a home victory, not quite the odds of a Prague win, but not tricky games either.
Milesey
Chelmsford and Monaco, would be top of my list today for a home victory, not quite the odds of a Prague win, but not tricky games either.
Milesey
I’ve gone with Chelmsford, Monaco and Lanus treble today, just for abit of profit, had a punt on Aston Villa at 12/1, just cause the odds are so big it’s always worth a chuck away tenner.
Hard to predict other games today, and i’m happy to play quite safe with my treble……but if you want to look at :
SPAIN: Primera Division 9:00 k/o
Celta Vigo V Zaragoza
DRAW @ 12/5
————————
PORTUGAL: Portuguese Liga 8:00 k/o
Olhanense V Guimaraes
GUIMARAES WIN @ 21/10
and also the Stjarnan win at Valur. and maybe add in Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.3 in Honka v HJK Helsinki, but i’ll be taking these as 2 single bets.
Milesey
RIGHT ! have a great day people, good luck in your bets, done my half a days work today, got some corporate things to do now, Lunch and drinks in Windsor, followed by hospitality package at Windsor races this evening ;) ;)
Enjoy your day.
Milesey
Cheers for the heads up Millesy!
Trying to find some value in Man U game. A real hard won to predict. Just as likely to win 1-0 or 4-3 in my opinion. Overs and win to nil markets out of window. Some games Man U have got an early goal and held out. Others they leave it late. Ht / ft then out of question for me. Not convinced by +1 with villa’s threat and Man U not scoring many.
One that is appealing is more goals in 2nd half at just over evens. What do you think?
Few of the boys got together to “buy” ya a we birthday treat Paul…she’ll come to Record office 2moro…just pull the bow n everything falls off and she sings “Happy Birthday” Marilyn Monroe style…wee treat for ya to give ya a boost :-)
Guido, look forward to that then. Golf was good but windy.
Did ya lose any balls Mr F?
Guido, amazingly no balls lost but we lost the match one down which wasn’t bad after being five down with five to play.
A decent effort to get back into it from 5 dn. Funny game golf the bottle goes/mistakes creep in gie easy when people start attacking ya from behind/getting on a roll. I mind my mate ( 3 hcp) was 5 up with 5 to playin a club comp final (handicap giving 11 shots) and the other bloke had all but conceded/he had a new driver and offered him a shot when it was over…mate fluffed a simple chip into the bunker at 14th and took an Adolf Hitler..momentum changed just like that as T Cooper wid say….ended up going to the 19th where my mates head was mince and he pulled a 9 ironoot the bag on a par three when usually a 6 iron would usually be required…needless to say he blew it!! he got blotto shotly after his collapse on Magners cider straight after/shellshocked…hahahaha :-) Greens any good at Largs?
Guido, just seen your comment. Golf can be a funny game, guys we were playing needed a two-putt from 20 feet to win 6 and 4 and three-putted and I won next three playing perfect golf. Greens were in great nick but not as fast as usual.
…looks like lanus are gonna ruin a perfectly good 4fold!
Monday 22nd APRIL 2013
———————-
Milesey’s TIPS
—————
SPAIN: Primera Division 9:00 k/o
Celta Vigo V Zaragoza
DRAW @ 12/5 ** 2-1 LOST **
UNDER 2.5 GOALS ** LOST ** GOAL IN THE 92ND MINUTE BLOWS OUT 2 BETS !
————————
ARGENTINA: Primera Division 8:00 k/o
Union Santa Fe V Lanus
LANUS WIN @ 10/11 ** 0-0 LOST **
————————
ENGLAND: Blue Sq South 7:45 k/o
Chelmsford V Maidenhead
CHELMSFORD WIN @ 2/5 ** 3-1 WIN **
————————
PORTUGAL: Portuguese Liga 8:00 k/o
Olhanense V Guimaraes
GUIMARAES WIN @ 21/10 ** 1-2 WIN **
————————-
FRANCE: Ligue 2
Monaco V Clermont 7:40 k/o
MONACO WIN @ 2/5 ** 4-0 WIN **
IPL CRICKET
Back-to-lay Rajsthan @ 2.56 / LAYED @ 1.51 After hitting 185 runs in their 20 overs.
Milesey