Real Madrid v Real Betis, 5pm (Live on Sky Sports 4)
REAL have won 13 of 14 home matches and 11 of them by two or more goals.
Betis have the best away record of anyone outside the Big Two (W7-D2-L6). Our concern here is they have still conceded 29 times in those matches – that's only once fewer than Celta Vigo and Sevilla who are bottom and second bottom of the Liga away table.
Dig a little deeper and you'll find Pepe Mel's men have struggled against good home teams: W1-D1-L6 against the top 12 in the Liga home table; W6-D1-L0 against the rest.
Are Real a good home team? They've won 45/53 under Jose Mourinho and, most recently, 11/14 by two goals or more.
Xabi Alonso is suspended this weekend. He has always seemed pretty crucial to Real's success, the link between strongish defence and devastating attack, but they can do without him, winning 6/6 such Liga and Champions League games at the Bernabeu this term.
Back Real Madrid -1.5 @ 1.8
Barcelona v Levante, 7pm (Live on Sky Sports 4)
Levante lost 5-1 at Real Madrid a fortnight ago. They followed up with a 4-0 home defeat to Deportivo La Coruna.
Thank goodness they are safely in mid-table, 13 points clear of the drop zone.
Barcelona have won 14/14 at home to anyone who isn't Real Madrid this season. They have been ahead by half-time in 12/14.
Messi, Xavi, Busquets, Mascherano and Puyol should all sit this one out but recent results suggest the understudies can handle games like this one.
Back Barcelona/Barcelona @ 1.7
Valencia v Malaga, 9pm (Live on Sky Sports 4)
Valencia and Malaga notched their half-centuries of points last weekend and are now alongside each other in the Europa League positions.
Los Che might feel they have rather more to play for than their visitors: Malaga are banned from European competition next season, pending an appeal.
The important thing for us is since Malaga were handed the ban in December there has been an upturn in goals – 5/6 away matches have produced three or more.
Valencia have scored twice or more in 13/16 at the Mestalla, where each of the last three games have brought over 2.5 goals in total.
Jonas is the one to watch – the Brazilian, who starts wide but likes to move inside, has found the back of the net in 7/8 Liga and Champions League appearances in the last two months. You might get 2.5 about him scoring anytime this weekend.
Back Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.9