LAVAL travel to Dijon for a clash in the second tier of French football this evening (7pm) and while the Betfair market is expecting it to be quite low scoring Mr M thinks there will be plenty of goals.
Dijon are seventh in the league after drawing six of their last eight fixtures. Relegated from the top flight last season they were expected to challenge for promotion but with just half a dozen games remaining, they are six points adrift of the top three and have plenty of other sides to compete against.
Olivier Dall'Oglio's men have simply drawn too many matches. While they've only lost seven of their 32 – a record bettered only by the top two – they've recorded just 12 victories which just isn't quite good enough.
As far as the goals go Dijon's matches have been averaging 2.44 per 90 minutes, with 14 of 32 going over 2.5.
Interestingly though, four of their last seven at Stade Gaston Gérard have had three goals or more and they managed to keep just one clean sheet during that period.
Laval are fighting relegation, as they did last year, and they are down in 15th place, a mere two points clear of the drop zone. Picking up results is of paramount importance now but they have at least been on a good run – a spell of five unbeaten ended last time out to Arles.
Philippe Hinschberger's side score plenty of goals for a team in this much trouble. With 40 scored, they have the highest number of goals in the bottom half of the division.
Their matches have been averaging 2.69 goals each time, with 19 of their 32 having had three or more. Three of their last four on the road have gone over and they netted twice at Istres a fortnight ago.
Dijon need to win to keep their promotion hopes alive and Laval need to win to ease further away from the relegation zone.
The stats suggest there should be goals and given the nature of what's at stake, neither will settle for a point. That's why, with under 2.5 goals trading around the 1.84 mark, I have to make it my lay of the day.
Lay Under 2.5 goals in Dijon v Laval @ 1.84