Get ready for an action-packed weekend as we dive into the USL Championship and Allsvenskan matches, offering our predictions for goals galore, second-half drama, and both teams finding the back of the net.
Charleston Battery v Loudoun Utd
Saturday, 12:30am
The USL Championship is the second-tier of football in the United States of America, and it is always a card I look towards for betting opportunities on a weekly basis. I have located two plays from this league across this weekend’s card, the first of which is when Charleston Battery welcomes Loudoun Utd to Patriots Point Soccer Complex.
Charleston have certainly enjoyed a strong start to the campaign and find themselves fourth in the standings, only two points behind league leaders Pittsburgh Riverhounds. They’ve failed to make the end of season play-offs in the last two seasons, but they are well on course this time around. However, their much earlier season form has significantly dipped, as Ben Pirmann’s side have won only three times in their previous nine in league & cup.
In their defence, Battery have had some tricky fixtures in recent times, including facing top-two Pittsburgh and Memphis within their last three matches, both resulting in defeats. Loudoun presents a much more realistic challenge for them this weekend from a win perspective. However, one thing you can’t rely on Charleston for is consistency, you just don’t know what you’re going to get from them. Despite being fourth, they have a 7-0 home loss to their name already when San Antonio demolished them in May. Their home record reads three wins, three draws and three losses.
Loudoun Utd also finds themselves inside a play-off position, but it is worth remembering that eight teams in this 12-team league in the Eastern Conference will qualify for the end of season lottery. Loudoun are currently in the final spot, despite only five wins from 17, including 11 defeats. Only bottom side Hartford Athletic have conceded more goals in the Eastern Conference than Loudoun, who are a team that commonly finishes towards the bottom of the standings. In their brief existence as a team, they’ve never made the play-offs.
Two wins in their last four represents good form for them, and is a major improvement on their run before those back-to-back victories in mid-June against FC Tulsa and Miami FC. They did go on an eight-match losing streak before those wins, and have since backed it up by losing two on the spin. They’ll certainly be keen to avoid another long stretch of losses. Again, they too have endured some difficult fixtures, and Charleston is another that can be added to that list.
Charleston are slim odds-on shots to win this game, and that represents no real value considering how inconsistent they are. A goals approach however is a much safer way of getting involved here without us sweating on needing one particular team to come out on top. Over 2.5 Goals and Both Teams to Score is an attractive 2.04 play with Grosvenor which should give us a good run for our money. This has been a winning selection in seven of the last 11 Loudoun games, also, both teams are above the league Expected Goals average. Both will play to win and with Loudoun having the second-worst Expected Goals Against number, and with Charleston only 0.01 below the league average in that category, neither side are so strong defensively to withstand too much pressure.
Kristiansund v Hødd
Saturday, 2pm
Football in Scandinavia is really in full swing at this time of year and with leagues starting to settle down a bit, we can begin to start being a little more confident in our selections for leagues such as Obos-Ligaen in Norway. This is the second-tier in the country and the league is now 13 games deep, and naturally the league is starting to take shape. Kristiansund were expected to challenge promotion, and they currently are in fourth place, and this Saturday they welcome a Hødd outfit only a point outside the bottom-three.
Kristiansund were relegated last season after a six-year spell in Eliteserien, and certainly the pre-season objective is to win back their top-flight spot at the first attempt. Between 2017 and 2021, they finished between fifth and seventh in Eliteserien, before a bad year last season to see them go down. That would have hurt them badly but they should be in the promotion picture come the run-in.
They have been a little cold in more recent times however, and four wins in ten in all competitions reflect that. In their defence, they had been juggling NM Cupen duties alongside their league form and with Norwegian teams not really used to playing midweek games, this proved to be a challenge. Now they can just totally focus on the league, and they’ve had more rest in recent times to better prepare them for games.
Hødd haven’t played in the top-flight since 1995, and they are back in the second-tier after winning their respective league last season. It hasn’t been an easy transition moving to a league above, but it is never that straightforward. Naturally they’ll need some time to adjust facing better quality opposition, and the pre-season goal was always to avoid relegation. Two wins in 11 suggests they’re lacking in confidence, but an away game at Kristiansund is not one they’d be expected to get something from, so they may play with a degree of freedom.
The issue for Hødd this weekend will likely come in the form of their offensive qualities as this has been an issue for them this season. They currently sit bottom of the Expected Goals league in Obos-Ligaen, and with them scoring around three more goals than they should have done based on that figure, it highlights a real lack of attacking end product. Kristiansund are the top-team in the league on the xG count, a full eight goals above the league average.
What gives Hødd some hope is they have the seventh-best Expected Goals Against number, meaning that they do have the ability to frustrate opponents that could be superior to them. Kristiansund have a slightly bigger number, meaning they probably can’t just go hell for leather here and just expect to steamroll Hødd. They may have to be patient, even more so knowing Hødd surprising have the best first-half record in the league.
With that in mind, Kristiansund may have to wait until the second-half to produce their most effective football, with Hødd likely to sit back from the off. I like the look of Kristiansund to win the second-half at 1.85 with William Hill. They are also the highest-scoring home team in the last ten minutes, which is when Hødd could be under some serious pressure. I can see them playing for a point and behind picked off in the second period, even if they’re already behind at half-time.
El Paso v New Mexico
Sunday, 02:30am
Our second visit to the USL Championship allows us to take in El Paso against New Mexico, which is an all-Western Conference clash. It has been an excellent start to the season from El Paso, with only Sacramento Republic above them in the table. Nine wins and only three defeats has given El Paso a great platform to build upon for the remainder of the season. They are expected to compete however, so they won’t be getting too excited. New Mexico have disappointed and after having a top-five finish in each of their last three seasons, they’d expect to be higher than third from bottom after 15 games.
The good thing for New Mexico is they are at least heading into this tricky contest on the back of a victory. Defeating Colorado Springs 2-1 at home will hopefully give them the boost they need to really get their season going. It was also their first win under the management of Eric Quill, who is now three games into the job after Zach Prince was sacked following a poor start to the campaign.
A new manager can often lead to an upturn in fortunes and that has seemingly been the case in this example, too. They look to be playing a more possession-based game under Quill, twice achieving a possession stat of around 60% across the three games. Ironically, the one game they’ve won went below 50% possession, so they can mix things up. This season, New Mexico have scored six more goals than they should have based on their xG number, and scoring when you don’t really deserve it is no bad habit. However, they’ve also conceded around six more than they should have based on xGA as well, so goals are a good play when they’re involved it would appear.
El Paso is a squad full of experience for a team playing at this level, not just past MLS experience but also across some of the big European leagues. They again changed their manager in the off-season and so far the introduction of Brian Clarhaut, former of GIF Sundsvall, has proved a wise decision. Despite this, they are only ranked 14 out of all 24 USL Championship clubs, in both conferences, on the xG count. They also have the same position on the xGA count, so their numbers aren’t much to write home about.
However, it is that experience which does give them a really big edge in games, especially when they become tight. The goals of Argentinian Luis Solignac helps as well, and he is just the type to pick up a goal out of nowhere. Quite simply, El Paso have very good players, and a ten-match unbeaten run, including eight victories, proves they’re in a very good place right now.
Despite this, there is still a vulnerability about them defensively that New Mexico could and should look to exploit. El Paso have seen 60% of their league contests see both teams score, and they’ve conceded in ten of their 15 league battles, so they’re not necessarily used to keeping clean sheets. Despite being unbeaten in ten, you’d maybe expect more than six clean sheets. New Mexico top the BTTS league across USL Championship with 80%, so this is one obvious bet we have to get involved with.
Both Teams to Score is actually a 2.00 chance with Bet365 and there is a strong case for these odds being a little shorter. It is easy to look at El Paso’s long unbeaten run but that does cover over certain cracks. This is an excellent bet at a better than expected price.
Norrköping v Häcken
Sunday, 2pm
The final play for the column comes in Sweden as Allsvenskan is back in action after briefly halting for the international break. There is already a gap between the top-three and the rest, and it is Häcken who sits third and are very much in the title race as things stand. A tricky away encounter with Norrköping awaits on Sunday however, in a match that could promise entertainment.
Norrkoping are one of those sides looking to break into the top bracket of the league again but have consistently found it challenging to do so. They won the league title as recently as 2015 and they have threatened a few times to do so again, but they’ve become a mid-table team now. Still, they’re capable of raising it for the big games and a chance to test themselves against one of the best teams in something they’ll relish.
The international break came at a good time for Norrköping given they are winless in four. They won three straight before this mini-slump, including a home win over Hammarby, so they are capable. Last time out they drew away at Djurgården, which is a good result, but they did lead 2-0, so it would’ve felt like a loss. Norrköping have the third-worst xG figure in the league, but have scored around five goals more than they should have, which again is always a handy habit.
One big issue for Norrköping is that Häcken has the number one xG rating in the league and are the highest-scorers in Allsvenskan, too. They’ve only dropped points in one home game, so it is on the road where it is the best chance to maybe catch them cold. Their last four on the road in league action reads one win, one draw and two defeats. Losing at Djurgården can happen, but losing at lowly Halmstad is the type of result they can suffer from. If they’re to keep up the pace with Elfsborg and Malmö then they need to be winning games like weekend to make them truly believe back-to-back league titles could be a possibility.
Häcken are solid defensively and do possess the fifth-best xGA figure, but Norrköping are ranked second, so despite their mid-table position they are excellent from a defensive perspective. That will be tested versus the best attacking team in the league however, but they are more than capable of making a game of this. As mentioned, the time to catch Häcken out is on the road, and I personally wouldn’t trust them as much as their odds-on quote suggests.
A goals approach is something I’d feel a little safer in achieving as this is no nailed on away victory, especially coming back off the international break. That could level out the match to a degree. Paddy Power have priced Over 2.5 Goals and Both Teams to Score at 1.91, and that must stand a good chance of paying off for us. Norrköping do have a strong xGA number, but the selection has still paid out in three of their four matches against current top-half opposition this weekend, and the other at least ended over 2.5 goals. 7/12 of Norrköping games have featured at least three goals, and the same can be said in 9/13 for Häcken. Both teams will play to win this and it has all the makings of an exciting Allsvenskan match to brighten up your Sunday afternoon.
Tips
Charleston Battery v Loudoun Utd – Over 2.5 Goals and Both Teams to Score (2.04 Grosvenor)
Kristiansund v Hødd – Kristiansund to win second-half (1.85 William Hill)
El Paso v New Mexico – Both Teams to Score (2.00 Bet365)
Norrköping v Häcken – Over 2 Goals and Both Teams to Score (1.91 Paddy Power)
