Golf Betting Tips from The Caddy

The PGA Tour continues with its final Florida swing event with this week's Valspar Championship at the Copperhead Course, Innisbrook Resort, Palm Harbor, Florida.

The 144 field with the top 65 including ties making the weekend will all be competing for a share of the $8.1M prize purse with the winner collecting the Valspar Championship title and a winner's cheque for $1,458,000.

Sam Burns returns to defend his crown and will be looking for the hat-trick here at Innisbrook having also won this event in 2021. His winning scorecard from last year read 267,-17.

Last weekend Scottie Scheffler romped to victory at the PGA flagship event, The Players Championship at TPC Sawgrass. I tipped Scheffler the week before to win the Arnold Palmer Invitational and said another victory was imminent and it sure was, that W at the Players takes the ever talented 26yrs old from New Jersey back to the top of the pile as he regains his throne and World No1 title.

We did however land yet another SuoerBanker Nap with Jason Day beating Tom Kim over 72 holes, that’s 5/6 SuperBanker Naps that have landed comfortably this year alone so look out for more in the weeks ahead as we look forward to The Masters at Augusta fast approaching.

The Copperhead Course will be playing 7,340 yards long this week, it’s a par 71 parkland layout with the Snake Pit always living up to its name coming down the stretch on the final few holes.

The weather is forecast to be sunny and warm with the possibility of showers on Saturday. Breezes will peak at around 20mph, definitely enough for concern around here.

This event will be screened on Sky Sports Golf & Sky Sports Main Event with live coverage starting at 11.30 am on Thursday morning.

So let’s move on with this week's betting tips to win the Valspar Championship.

Tommy Fleetwood 25/1 EW 1-6 places Boylesports

For my first and main selection at Innisbrook Resort, I’m going to strongly recommend Tommy Fleetwood 25/1 EW 1-6 places Boylesports or 20/1 EW 1-10 places Ladbrokes. The 32-year-old Englishman from Southport is still yet to conquer America and win an event on the PGA Tour but that could be all about to change this weekend in Florida.

He has been knocking on the door for so long now and did show some promise at last week's Players Championship where he finished in a very respectable 27th place.

With multiple winners on the DP World Tour, it surely has to be a matter of time before Fleetwood breaks his duck in the USA. He did come close in 2018 at the US Open when finishing runner-up to Brooks Koepka with only one shot separating them and has had more than half a dozen Top 5 finishes on the PGA circuit which include T5th at last year's USPGA Championship.

Others worth a mention include the 2nd WGC Mexico Championship, 4th US Open, T3rd Arnold Palmer Invitational, 3rd Honda Classic and T3rd Hero World Challenge. I’m only going on stats while Fleetwood is in the states but his record across the big pond on the DP World Tour speaks for itself.

With six DPWT titles already in the bag, the most recent being just a matter of months back when adding the Nedbank Golf Challenge to his collection, I just have a feeling that with a host of big guns missing this week, Tommy Fleetwood could be shooting down this field on his way to that long-awaited maiden PGA title when he bags the Valspar Championship this coming Sunday evening.

Davis Riley 35/1 EW 1-6 places Boylesports

For my next best selection I’m going to single out Davis Riley 35/1 EW 1-6 places Boylesports or 28/1 1-10 places Ladbrokes. The 26-year-old old from Mississippi was so unlucky around here last time out when beaten in a playoff to eventual winner Sam Burns and can go one better this time around.

Having finished inside the Top 10 with 8th place at the recent Arnold Palmer Invitational, Riley is another who will soon enough win on the PGA Tour, possibly this weekend at Palm Beach. Another track similar to this Copperhead Course is Colonial where Riley finished 4th at last year's Charles Schwab Challenge so he will be eyeing up this event as the one to kick start his career and get that first PGA W on the board.

His best finish at a major was 13th at last year's USPGA Championship but he has won more than once over on the Korn Ferry Tour. If Davis Riley arrives at Copperhead in the same frame of mind as last year then he could easily go one better when he holds aloft the Valspar Championship trophy and claims his maiden breakthrough PGA title with many more to follow.

Adam Hadwin 25/1 EW 1-6 places Boylesports

For my final outright PGA betting tip this week I’m going to point you all in the direction of Adam Hadwin 25/1 EW 1-6 places Boylesports or 20/1 EW 1-10 places Ladbrokes. The 35yrs old Canadian has three Top 20 finishes already in 2023, 13th at last week's Players Championship, 18th at the American Express and 10th at the Phoenix Open so it’s clear for all to see that Hadwin arrives at Innisbrook with some form in the bag.

He also finished off 2022 with a 7th place finish at the Houston Open and can back that up with another five Top 10 finishes throughout the year with one of those being 7th at The US Open. The Canadian's only success to date on the PGA Tour came at this event in 2017 when he won his maiden title so a return to familiar surroundings may help his cause to double up this weekend at Palm Harbor.

This tree-lined layout will suit Hadwin's game to a tee and course management shouldn’t be a problem having successfully negotiated his way around here to victory in 2017. Again the door is open this week on the PGA Tour with a much weaker field than we have been used to at the recent elevated events so now is as good a time as any for Adam Hadwin to become a dual Valspar Championship winner, he could be the one shining in the Sunshine State when he finishes the Florida swing with a song and dance.

So all that’s left now is the match bet and for this week's Nap I’m going to recommend that Matt Fitzpatrick gets the better of Sam Burns over 72 holes 10/11 Nap Bet365.

  • Tommy Fleetwood 25/1 EW 1-6 places Boylesports
  • Davis Riley 35/1 EW 1-6 places Boylesports
  • Adam Hadwin 25/1 EW 1-6 places Boylesports
  • Matt Fitzpatrick gets the better of Sam Burns over 72 holes 10/11 Nap Bet365
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