The PGA Tour remains in Texas this week for the Valero Texas Open, the final stop before The Masters, offering one last opportunity for players to fine-tune their games, and in some cases, secure a late invitation to Augusta.
Held on the Oaks Course at TPC San Antonio, this is a very different test from last week’s wide-open bomber’s paradise at the Houston Open.
Instead, it presents a far more controlled, ball-striking-heavy challenge where precision off the tee and quality iron play take centre stage.
Valero Texas Open 2026 key information, prize money and how to watch
TPC San Antonio has hosted this event since 2010 and consistently ranks among the more demanding non-major tests on the PGA Tour.
Designed by Greg Norman in consultation with Sergio Garcia, the Oaks Course is a par-72 layout measuring approximately 7,438 yards.
Despite its length, scoring is rarely easy, with wind often a significant defence and greens among the hardest to hit in regulation on Tour.
- Venue: TPC San Antonio, San Antonio, Texas, United States
- Dates: Thursday 2nd April to Sunday 5th April
- Total Prize Fund: £7.4 million
- Winner's Prize Money: £1.4 million
- TV Channel: Sky Sports Golf, Sky Sports Main Event
- Broadcast Times:
Thursday and Friday from 13:15pm
Saturday from 15:15pm
Sunday from 18:00pm - Tee Times: Can be found here
What does it take to win the Valero Texas Open? Key statistics and angles
This is a ball-striking course first and foremost, with a very clear and repeatable winning profile.
Recent winners such as Brian Harman, Akshay Bhatia, Corey Conners and J. J. Spaun all arrived in strong driving form, consistently finding fairways and gaining strokes off the tee.
Approach play remains the most influential stat, and those who arrive with hot irons tend to create the most scoring opportunities, especially with a large number of long approaches and tricky green complexes.
Interestingly, short game is far less predictive. While players will need to scramble at times, most winners arrive with average short-game numbers and simply spike for one week. It’s not something to overly prioritise when profiling players, but it is worth considering.
Key Statistics to win at TPC San Antonio:
- Strokes Gained: Approach
- Strokes Gained: Off-The-Tee
- Good Drives Gained / Total Driving
- Par-4 Scoring: 400-450 Yards
- Proximity from 50 to 125 Yards
Correlated Course Form to consider:
While course correlations are less pronounced this week, several venues reward a similar blend of accuracy and controlled ball-striking.
- Copperhead at Innisbrook – Valspar Championship
- TPC Sawgrass – The Players Championship
- TPC River Highlands – Travelers Championship
- TPC Scottsdale – Phoenix Open
- Silverado Resort – Procore Championship
- Bay Hill Club and Lodge – Arnold Palmer Invitational
- PGA National – Cognizant Classic
- Harbour Town Golf Links – RBC Heritage
Experience at TPC San Antonio is another small factor, as no course debutant has won here since 2012, and most winners had at least made the cut in past appearances.
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Valero Texas Open 2026 betting tips and predictions
At the top of the market, Ludvig Aberg and Tommy Fleetwood have opened as joint favourites at around 14/1, reflecting both current form and suitability to a ball-striking test like this.
With the profile this week so clearly leaning towards accurate driving and strong approach play, the focus will be on players who arrive in control off the tee and with irons trending in the right direction.
Sepp Straka – 25/1 each-way (6 places)
Having initially been put off by the clustered nature of the market at the front end, Sepp Straka stands out as one of the more reliable options in this price range.
While others may have question marks around motivation or timing with Augusta looming, Straka has shown repeatedly that he is more than capable of peaking in these ‘in-between' spots.
He won the John Deere Classic shortly before The Open in 2023 and clinched the Truist Championship just a week before the USPGA last year, while also finishing third at the Memorial ahead of his US Open appearance weeks less than a month later.
His current form backs that up – a T8 at TPC Sawgrass last time out marked his fourth top-20 and second top-10 in his last five starts, and the underlying numbers are strong, ranking 12th on Tour for Strokes Gained: Approach, 8th for approaches from 50-125 yards, and 13th tee-to-green.
He hasn’t played here since a T22 in 2023, but this return ahead of the Masters looks noteworthy.
With his consistent ball-striking and proven ability to contend in strong fields, he looks like one of the more solid options in a tricky market.
Back Straka to win the Texas Open at 25/1 each-way with six places on offer at Betfred
Daniel Berger – 35/1 each-way (8 places)
If you’re looking for a player trending towards a win in this type of event, then Daniel Berger makes plenty of appeal.
He came close earlier this season and, but for a final-round collapse at Bay Hill, could easily already have a win on the board. There’s a growing sense that his return to the winner’s circle is imminent, and this venue could be ideal for him.
Berger has a strong track record in Texas, with solid finishes at both Houston and Colonial, while his broader profile ticks plenty of boxes. A sixth-place finish at the Sony Open and a runner-up in Phoenix last year highlight his comfort on similar setups.
Statistically, he remains one of the sharper iron players on Tour, ranking 6th for SG: Approach and 13th for approaches from inside 100 yards, exactly the type of profile that tends to thrive at TPC San Antonio.
With seven cuts made from eight starts this season and consistently knocking on the door, this could finally be the week he converts.
Back Berger to win the Texas Open at 35/1 each-way with eight places on offer at Betfair
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Johnny Keefer – 40/1 each-way (6 places)
The case for Johnny Keefer is fairly straightforward – a local player in strong form arriving at a course he knows extremely well.
He was excellent in Houston last week, ranking third in the field for SG: Approach, and his broader numbers suggest this is no fluke. He currently sits first on the PGA Tour for Greens in Regulation, 7th for SG: Off The Tee, and 10th for approaches from 50-125 yards.
That combination of accuracy and iron play is exactly what this test demands.
As a long-term member at TPC San Antonio, his course familiarity is another major plus, and with his Masters spot already secured, he can approach this week with freedom and confidence.
If the putter cooperates even slightly, he has the tools to seriously contend.
Back Keefer to win the Texas Open at 40/1 each-way with six places on offer at Betfred
Mac Meissner – 80/1 each-way (7 places)
Mac Meissner is another with strong local ties and plenty of reasons to believe he can outperform his odds.
He recorded a top-10 finish here in 2024 and has spoken previously about his comfort on this course, having grown up watching and playing it.
“I certainly am excited to be on a course where I grew up watching guys play,” he said here last year. “I feel like a little bit of a veteran in this tournament just because I've played out here so many times that I am just comfortable with some of the lines that you have to take.”
That familiarity can be a real asset on a layout that rewards positional play and smart decision-making.
While his PGA Tour results this season haven’t jumped off the page, the underlying metrics are encouraging.
He ranks inside the top 10 for total driving efficiency and approaches from 100 yards and in, sits 18th for the 50-125 range, and is an elite bunker player, ranking 4th on the PGA Tour, which is particularly relevant given the number of sand hazards in play here.
Add in a top-20 ranking for par-4 scoring, and there’s enough here to suggest a spike week is possible.
Sitting outside the world’s top 100, Meissner will need a win to reach the Masters, and that added motivation – combined with course knowledge – could make a world of difference.
Back Meissner to win the Texas Open at 80/1 each-way with seven places on offer at Fitzdares
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Pontus Nyholm – 200/1 each-way (10 places)
A final play goes to Pontus Nyholm, who remains at a big price despite another encouraging showing for us last week.
He finished T14 in Houston, narrowly missing out on place returns, and there are clear signs he’s becoming increasingly comfortable in these conditions.
His record in the region is quietly building, including a runner-up finish at the Veritex Bank Championship on the Korn Ferry Tour.
There are also some interesting form links, notably a win at the Knoxville Open, previously won by J. J. Spaun, who has also tasted success here at TPC San Antonio. Nyholm beat Johnny Keefer to that title, which adds another intriguing layer to the case.
He’s already posted top-20 finishes this season at both Puerto Rico and PGA National, and while this is his course debut, the combination of form, price, and potential upside makes him worth chancing.
Back Nyholm to win the Texas Open at 200/1 each-way with ten places on offer at Ladbrokes
Lewis joined as News and Features Editor in July 2025, having previously held senior roles at Snack Media and GRV Media. He has also written extensively as a football and golf tipster for WeLoveBetting. He is also a proud Aldershot Town supporter.
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