Deja vu, anyone? Two weeks on, and the WTA Rome tournament has panned out the exact same way as the previous WTA 1000 did in Madrid: with an Iga Swiatek vs Aryna Sabalenka final.
The stage couldn’t be more perfectly set for a brilliant title match. It’s the two best players in the world, with one of the most exciting rivalries. Just a fortnight ago, Swiatek saved match points to defeat Sabalenka.
Can she do it all again in Rome? We get into the nitty-gritty with our Swiatek vs Sabalenka prediction and betting tips.
Top seed Swiatek has been in her usual imperious form at the Italian Open. The Pole is on an 11-match win streak following her title in Madrid and is yet to drop a set in Rome. Most recently, she’s raced past third seed Coco Gauff and 18th seed Madison Keys for the loss of just seven and four games, respectively.
For Sabalenka, her path has been a little rockier. The Belarusian came back from a set down in her opening match against Katie Volynets, before saving match points in an epic three-setter against Elina Svitolina in the round of 16. Her quarter-final and semi-final performances were smoother, with straight-set wins over Jelena Ostapenko and Danielle Collins.
Can Sabalenka get revenge for her loss in Madrid, or will the Swiatek train keep steaming along?
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How the Bookies View It: Swiatek a Heavy Favourite
Bookies aren’t giving Sabalenka much of a shot in this clash, with the Belarusian a heavy 11/4 underdog. Swiatek sits at a low 2/7 to win, with a -4.5 handicap at 10/11. Set betting has a straight-sets victory to the Pole as the most likely result, paying 4/5.
Recent Head-to-Head: Advantage Swiatek
This will be the 11th meeting between Swiatek and Sabalenka on the WTA Tour. Swiatek leads the head-to-head 7-3, having won their most recent meeting earlier this month. Sabalenka’s last victory came a year ago in Madrid–she’s won two of their last five meetings.
Anything Else Catch the Eye?
Sabalenka seems to have shifted gears and found her best tennis the last two matches.
Heading into the Rome quarter-finals, 10 of Sabalenka’s last 11 matches had gone the distance. However, she dispatched both Ostapenko and Collins comprehensively in her last two matches–handing Collins just her second loss in 21 matches.
Does this represent the increase in level that Sabalenka needs to edge Swiatek? She does appear to be playing more free-flowing tennis, and her post-match interviews have indicated she’s in a healthy mindset.
For Swiatek, the thought of Roland-Garros has to be in the back of her mind. Given how much she’s been winning, the world No. 1 has spent a lot of time on the court, going the distance in Madrid and then here in Rome.
A month of non-stop tennis is a challenging precursor to her most important Grand Slam–will she have one eye on this if the Rome final goes deep as well? After all, each of Sabalenka’s three wins over Swiatek have gone the distance.
Swiatek vs Sabalenka Betting Tips & Predictions
If your life depended on it, you’d want to back Swiatek to come away with the win in this one. However, we believe that Sabalenka’s odds of winning are undervalued here. The world No 2 came within inches of victory a fortnight ago and is playing great tennis this week.
- Three sets total @ 13/8
- Sabalenka to win @ 11/4
Swiatek and Sabalenka will take to court, not before 5pm local time on Saturday afternoon at the Foro Italico.
In December 2020 we sadly 
