Ostapenko vs Sabalenka Prediction and Betting Tips - WTA Rome 2024

While the men’s event in Rome this week has taken a lot of the limelight, the WTA 1000 Rome tournament has been consistently producing some great match ups. Both Iga Swiatek and Aryna Sabalenka are on a collision course for each other, but Sabalenka will first need to navigate Jelena Ostapenko in the quarterfinals. Read on for our Sabalenka vs Ostapenko prediction and betting tips as we break down the match.

Sabalenka comes into this clash off the back of an epic clash against Elina Svitolina where she saved three match points. With the Belarusian advancing in a deciding set tiebreak, she’ll feel like she’s playing on house money here in Rome. Prior to this event, Sabalenka had made a strong run to the final in Madrid, narrowly losing a third set to Swiatek in the title match.

For Ostapenko, she’s been battling her way through the draw here in Rome. After an easy opening match against Anastasia Potapova, the Latvian has gone the distance in her last two clashes, also scraping home in a deciding set tiebreak most recently.

Can Ostapenko continue surviving at the WTA Italian Open, or will Sabalenka take things up a gear and book her spot in the semi-finals?

How the Bookies View It: Sabalenka in Front

Bookmaker bet365 isn’t giving Ostapenko much of a chance in this match. The world No 10 is at 5/2 to win, while Sabalenka returns a low 3/10. Set betting puts the most likely result as a 2-0 win to Sabalenka, with this paying just 5/6.

Recent Head-to-Head: All Sabalenka

Sabalenka and Ostapenko have met twice before on the WTA Tour, and it’s been all Sabalenka so far. The 26-year-old won 2-6, 6-1, 6-1 in Dubai last year, and also took their first meeting 6-1, 6-2 in 2019.

Anything Else Catch the Eye?

Of the four sets that Sabalenka has won against Ostapenko in their head-to-head, the Belarusian has lost just five games. When she’s beating Ostapenko, she’s beating her bad. 

Ostapenko had a brilliant start to the year, winning two titles by February. Since then, however, she’s cooled off. Coming into Rome, she was 6-6 since winning the Upper Austria Ladies Linz in early February. 

Ten of Sabalenka’s last eleven matches have gone to a third set. In Madrid, she only won one match in two sets, while here in Rome, she was able to dismiss Dayan Yastremska in straight sets. Ostapenko couldn’t be more different – up until her second match in Rome, her last seven matches were done in two.

Ostapenko vs Sabalenka Betting Tips & Predictions

While Sabalenka has been doing it tough in her recent matches, we expect that to change. The world No 2 should play freely against a mercurial Ostapenko, and put her away in a one-sided affair.

  • Sabalenka to win 2-0 @ 4/5
  • Sabalenka to win and under 19.5 games @ 6/4

Ostapenko and Sabalenka are up first on Centre Court this Wednesday, so get your bets in quick if you want to make them count.


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