The 2026 FIFA World Cup reaches its conclusion on Sunday as Spain and Argentina meet in New York New Jersey Stadium for the biggest prize in international football. The tournament's strongest defensive side takes on the reigning champions, who have made a habit of finding a way through every knockout round.
Spain reached the final with a controlled 2-0 victory over France. Both sides managed 10 shots, but the quality of Spain's chances made the difference. They generated 1.63 xG compared to France's 0.31 and created three big chances while allowing none. Mikel Oyarzabal converted from the penalty spot before Pedro Porro sealed victory, extending Spain's remarkable defensive record to just one goal conceded in seven matches.
Argentina's route has been far less straightforward. Their 2-1 victory over England saw them dominate the underlying numbers, finishing with 15 shots to seven, six corners to one and a 1.59 to 0.53 xG advantage.
England's xG on target of 1.02 kept the contest alive before Enzo Fernandez equalised in the 85th minute and Lautaro Martinez struck the winner deep into stoppage time. It was the fourth consecutive knockout match in which Argentina needed either a late goal or extra time, highlighting the resilience that has carried them back to another final.
There is little World Cup history between these nations. Their only previous meeting came in 1966, when Argentina claimed victory. Finals themselves offer a stronger guide.
Six of the last eight World Cup finals have produced under 2.5 goals, including 1-0 victories in 1990, 2010 and 2014, while only the 1998 and 2022 finals developed into high scoring contests. Argentina are aiming to become the first nation since Brazil in 1962 to successfully defend the World Cup, with only Italy in 1938 and Brazil in 1962 previously achieving back to back titles.
Anytime goalscorer
Lionel Messi stands out as the strongest value play. My model gives him a 58.4% chance of scoring, compared to a market implied probability of around 36% at 7/4. That represents the biggest edge in the goalscorer market.
Mikel Oyarzabal is the next strongest option. My model rates him at 48.6%, comfortably above the market expectation of around 35% at 15/8. He has repeatedly delivered in major finals and has once again been Spain's decisive player throughout this tournament.
- Lionel Messi anytime scorer at 8/5 with Bet365
- Mikel Oyarzabal anytime scorer at 37//20 with 10Bet
Best bets
Under 2.5 goals is the standout selection.
Everything about these teams points towards another tight World Cup final. Spain continue to win through efficiency rather than volume, creating high quality chances while giving opponents almost nothing in return.
Argentina have progressed by surviving difficult moments and producing decisive contributions late in matches rather than overwhelming opponents from the opening whistle. Combined with the recent history of World Cup finals, another low scoring contest looks the most likely outcome.
The draw after 90 minutes also deserves serious consideration. Four of the last five World Cup finals have required extra time, yet the market continues to price the draw at around a one in three chance. With so little separating these sides and neither expected to take unnecessary risks early, another level contest after 90 minutes is a realistic outcome.
The disciplinary markets provide another angle. Argentina's aggression has increased with every knockout round. They have averaged 13.75 fouls and 1.75 yellow cards across their four knockout matches, collecting one booking against Cape Verde before receiving three against both Switzerland and England. Spain have averaged 11.5 fouls and exactly one yellow card per knockout match, exceeding one booking only once.
That pattern reflects the tactical challenge Argentina face. Slowing Spain's passing rhythm through physical challenges is one of the few ways to disrupt Luis de la Fuente's side, and the knockout data suggests Lionel Scaloni's team have become increasingly willing to do exactly that as the pressure has grown.
Argentina to receive over 2.5 cards is the strongest betting angle in the disciplinary markets.
Sunday's final brings together the tournament's best defence and its most resilient knockout team. Whether Spain complete one of the great defensive World Cup campaigns or Argentina retain their crown, everything points towards another tense final decided by the finest of margins.
- Under 2.5 goals at 4/6 with Boylesports
- Draw at 21/20 with Unibet
- Argentina over 2.5 cards at 1/1 with Bet365
The Betting Desk is run by Neil Potter. Neil built and refined all of the site’s data models, helping it grow into a trusted source of analysis across the Premier League, EFL and major tournaments. His models track key metrics, long term trends and areas where market prices move away from underlying performance.
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