Saturday's Lucky 15 bet wasn't the worst. It consisted of one winner in the form of Persica and two horses that were placed (1 x second, 1 x third)
Cairnzy has sent me his picks for Sunday's Lucky 15 and gave me the message: ‘Please be aware that the study for these selections was done prior to any odds being available to me. I’m hoping none of them is ridiculously short.'
Derrygarran Lad 6/5 – Redcar 2.23
The horse I liked here was the Julie Camacho trained Derrygarran Lad.
I do like Julie Camacho as a trainer; she doesn’t have a pile of superstars at her reach, but with the horses she takes on, I think she does okay for the most part. Her yard is ticking along okay at the moment, producing a S/R of around 15% in the last 14 days. Furthermore, I think the combination of Julie and Ryan Sexton is a good one and can be overlooked at times in the market.
Those without experience didn’t really excite me, and I thought Derrygarran Lad was the one to beat. He hasn’t been seen since taking a step forward from his debut run to finish second at Newcastle over one mile back in February but he looked like he was going the right way, clearing away from the remainder to fill the runner-up spot.
My slight worry is that he may be in need of the run, but nonetheless, I still think he is the one to beat in this small runner field.
Rajapour 7/2 – Redcar 3.33
A few of these arrive with question marks, and you could argue Rajapour could fall into that category given he’s winless in his last 13 outings. That aside, I think David O’Meara’s runner is starting to come to the boil. He’s been running quite well in recent times despite not winning, and his recent fourth at Pontefract was a good effort given he had to travel wide before making his effort.
He’s weighted nicely here to be a big player, and a further 1lb ease in the weights will aid his chances further. David O’Meara also runs Criminal Shore in this contest, and given Danny Tudhope is aboard that one, you’d assume that’s their main chance, but his recent blowout at York was enough to put me off.
Mathoura 9/2 – Curragh 2.10
Aiden O’Brien runs two here, and surprisingly I’ve opted to swerve both. Ryan Moore has opted for White Sand Beach, and I do understand why, as she does have a race of this nature in her at some point. With that said, she has been expensive to follow, and when a horse continually disappoints, I tend to look elsewhere. If she were to win, I wouldn’t be surprised, but given the jockey and trainer combination, I can see her being quite short.
That left me with Jessica Harrington-trained Mathoura. She remains a maiden after two career starts, but I thought if she was able to build on those two runs, she could be bang there. The form of those two runs to date isn’t bad either. She finished second on debut behind a subsequent winner in Vauntingly and then finished third next time out at Fairyhouse. She was well beaten at Fairyhouse, but the second-placed horse, who she was only 2L behind, hosed up on her next outing, so the form doesn’t look too bad. My selection has a tendency to run quite green but it’s still early days as she is still an inexperienced filly. Hopefully she settles better this time around and can put her best foot forward.
Solness 8/1 – Curragh 5.30
This selection comes with risks given he’s making his flat debut at the age of 8, but I do like it when trainers roll the dice with some of their star chasers in the flat game.
I’ve absolutely no idea what odds to expect from this selection. The Joseph O'Brien yard is in great form, but carrying top weight on debut will be no easy task.
Soleness was known for his exploits in the jumps scene and over further than today’s distance, but he’s a horse full of ability on his day, being a three-time Grade 1 winner over obstacles. This field doesn’t look spectacular, and I’m hoping JJ just bounces him out, goes to the front and lets him keep rolling. I think he could be a tough nut to crack if he gets an easy lead in this field. My only worry is if he has the speed against some of these, but only time will tell.
GambleAware