In football betting, a “shot on target” typically refers to any shot directed towards the goal that would have gone in had it not been saved by the goalkeeper or blocked by the last defender.
This betting market involves predicting the total number of shots on target during a match by a team or individual player, often including shots that were saved or blocked but were otherwise on target.
Our shots on target betting picks
Burnley vs Fulham
Burnley host Fulham at Turf Moor with both sides under pressure for different reasons. Burnley sit in desperate need of a win. Their record reads W3-D1-L11. Victories have come against Wolves, Leeds, and Sunderland.
Wolves remain winless this season, while Leeds and Sunderland are fellow promotion sides. Results underline Burnley’s struggle to impose themselves against established Premier League opponents.
Fulham arrive with a W5-D2-L8 record. Away from home it stands at W1-D1-L5. They hold a seven point cushion over Burnley. A win here would stretch that gap and move Fulham clear of the relegation conversation, pushing them toward midtable security. Motivation remains high given the table context and the opportunity to create separation.
Emile Smith Rowe enters this fixture in improved condition. He was out of the side earlier in the season but has worked his way back in. He has started the last two games, playing 73 and 67 minutes. Across those starts he has taken six shots, with three on target. His involvement rises sharply when starting. Across his three starts this season he has produced seven shots and four on target, averaging 2.33 shots per start.
His role suits this matchup. He operates centrally, arriving late into shooting zones rather than holding wide positions. That places his attempts closer to goal.
Burnley’s defensive numbers support the angle. They have conceded the most shots and the most shots on target in the league this season. Opponents generate sustained pressure and test the goalkeeper regularly.
Smith Rowe carries form, minutes, and role alignment into a game where Fulham should see shooting opportunities. One shot on target fits both his recent output and Burnley’s defensive profile.
- Best Bet: Emile Smith Rowe over 0.5 shots on target at 6/4 with Spread Ex
Sunderland vs Newcastle
Sunderland host Newcastle United with the game profile pointing toward midfield shots from range. Sunderland sit among the weakest defensive sides in the data. They have conceded 215 total shots, with 87 coming from outside the box. They allow 12.00 shots per game and 4.14 shots on target. Opponents find space at the edge of the area with regularity.
Bruno Guimaraes fits this setup well. He has taken 21 shots this season, with 13 from outside the box. That places him among the highest volume distance shooters in the league from a central midfield role. These attempts are not forced. They come when Newcastle sustain possession and Sunderland drop into a low block, leaving space to step into shots.
Minutes security strengthens the angle. Guimaraes has played 1,211 minutes across fourteen appearances. His role does not change with game state. He remains involved in second phase attacks and is positioned to collect clearances and loose balls around the edge.
Newcastle average 9.86 shots per game and face a defence that struggles to close down central zones. Sunderland rank poorly across defensive ratios and allow repeated attempts from range.
Guimaraes does not require high volume inside the box. One clean strike from outside the area is enough. His shot profile and the opponent numbers align for a shot on target from distance.
- Best Bet: Bruno Guimaraes over 0.5 shots on target from outside the box at 7/2 with Paddy
Liverpool vs Brighton
Liverpool host Brighton in a matchup that strongly supports shots from outside the box. Brighton concede 11.86 shots per game. Their defensive shape allows opponents time and space at the edge of the area, especially during sustained pressure. They do not consistently step out to block early efforts, which invites distance shooting.
Liverpool’s attacking profile aligns perfectly. They average 16.29 shots per game, one of the highest figures in the league. Territory dominance at Anfield leads to long spells around the Brighton box, with second phase possession recycled into shooting zones rather than forced crosses.
Dominik Szoboszlai stands out within this structure. He leads the league with 21 shots from outside the box. No other player shows the same combination of volume and role from range. His attempts are repeatable and role driven. He positions himself centrally during attacks, arriving late onto cut backs and clearances rather than operating between defenders in the box.
Game state adds further support. Brighton’s willingness to play out invites pressure and broken defensive lines. That increases loose ball situations around the edge of the area, where Szoboszlai thrives.
This is a volume based angle built on team dominance and player role. High Liverpool shot output, Brighton’s concession profile, and Szoboszlai’s league leading outside the box volume combine to create the strongest distance shooting setup on the slate.
- Best Bet: Dominik Szoboszlai over 0.5 shots on target from outside the box at 11/10 with Paddy
The Betting Desk is run by Neil Potter. Neil built and refined all of the site’s data models, helping it grow into a trusted source of analysis across the Premier League, EFL and major tournaments. His models track key metrics, long term trends and areas where market prices move away from underlying performance.
GambleAware