In football betting, a “shot on target” typically refers to any shot directed towards the goal that would have gone in had it not been saved by the goalkeeper or blocked by the last defender.
This betting market involves predicting the total number of shots on target during a match by a team or individual player, often including shots that were saved or blocked but were otherwise on target.
Last time out we back three winners so we are keeping with one pick for this weekend's selections.
Our shots on target betting picks
Nottingham Forest vs Leicester City
Jamie Vardy has scored 199 goals for Leicester City since joining the club in 2012. His most recent came in a 2–0 win over Southampton last time out, leaving him just one goal shy of the 200 mark ahead of his expected summer departure. Now he faces local rivals Nottingham Forest — a fitting stage to make history.
Vardy has registered 52 shots this season with 22 on target, a shot accuracy of nearly 43%. He has managed a shot on target in 16 of his 33 appearances, hitting that mark in 48% of games. He remains a consistent threat, and with a major milestone in sight, the motivation is unquestionable.
Forest, meanwhile, are under growing pressure in the race for a Champions League spot. Their recent defensive numbers show signs of strain: over the last four matches, they have conceded 1.50 non-penalty expected goals per game, allowed 9.8 shots inside the box, and faced 4.25 shots on target per match. That leaves them vulnerable to a player with Vardy’s instincts and timing.
- Best Bet: Jamie Vardy over 0.5 shot on target at 2.17 with Skybet
Ipswich Town vs Brentford
Julio Enciso has taken 36 shots in 23 Premier League appearances this season, averaging 3.2 shots per 90 minutes and hitting the target 21 times – a 58.3% accuracy rate. Since joining Ipswich, he has grown in confidence and influence. He has registered 26 shots for the club, with 10 on target, and has hit at least one shot on target in eight of nine games where he’s played 60+ minutes. His standout display came last week against Everton, scoring once from six shots. With Brentford up next, and Ipswich set to play on the front foot, Enciso remains a key attacking threat.
- Best Bet: Julio Enciso over 0.5 shots on target at 1.81 with Unibet
Fulham vs Everton
David Moyes has brought structure and purpose back to Everton since returning in January. His trademark compact mid-block and focus on wide delivery suits the squad’s existing strengths, with Everton ranking third in the Premier League for cross accuracy. Moyes has Everton forcing play wide, then delivering into a lone striker – mirroring his approach at West Ham. Beto has thrived under this system. The forward leads the team in both total shots (83) and shots on target (33), converting at a 40% accuracy rate. Since becoming a regular starter, he has produced two or more shots on target in eight of his last 13 appearances, totalling 26 shots on target in that span. Moyes’ tactics favour early crosses and set-pieces – two areas where Beto is a natural threat. With consistent service from wide areas and well-rehearsed dead-ball routines targeting him, Beto’s involvement has intensified. His early-shooting instinct aligns with Moyes’ direct style, making him a strong bet for 2+ shots on target as Everton push for results in their final games.
- Best Bet: Beto over 1.5 shots on target at 3.75 with Bet365
Backing Jamie Vardu, Julio Enciso and Beto to have at least one shot on target each can be backed at 4.98 with Unibet
GambleAware