In football betting, a “shot on target” typically refers to any shot directed towards the goal that would have gone in had it not been saved by the goalkeeper or blocked by the last defender.
This betting market involves predicting the total number of shots on target during a match by a team or individual player, often including shots that were saved or blocked but were otherwise on target.
Our shots on target betting picks
Wales vs Kazakhstan
Wales kick off their 2026 World Cup qualifying campaign on Saturday night as they host Kazakhstan at the Cardiff City Stadium. Under new boss Craig Bellamy, Wales are unbeaten in six matches — including a commanding 4-1 win over Iceland — and topped their UEFA Nations League group to secure promotion. Kazakhstan, by contrast, endured a winless Nations League campaign and are expected to struggle on the road. While the two sides have never met before, Wales enter as firm favourites. With Belgium, North Macedonia, and Liechtenstein also in Group E, securing a top-two finish is a realistic goal.
Injuries have hit the Welsh squad hard, with Aaron Ramsey, Harry Wilson, Ethan Ampadu, Rhys Norrington-Davies, and Wes Burns all unavailable. Bellamy has handed a first senior call-up to 18-year-old Kai Andrews, while Tom Lawrence returns after a four-year absence.
One player likely to shoulder more responsibility is Brennan Johnson. The Spurs attacker has enjoyed a strong season, scoring nine goals from 20 starts, with 18 shots on target. In the Nations League, he recorded four shots on target across five appearances, managing at least one in three matches — only blanking against group favourites Turkey.
Now facing a struggling Kazakhstan side that has lost nine of their last 11 matches and conceded 5 goals to Norway in their most recent outing, Johnson should find plenty of space. Kazakhstan allowed an average of 6.67 shots on target per game in the Nations League — rising to 8.67 in away fixtures. With Wales expected to control proceedings, Johnson looks well placed to record at least one, if not multiple, shots on target.
- Best Bet: Brennan Johnson over 1.5 shots on target at 2.7 with Coral
England vs Albania
The Thomas Tuchel era kicks off on Friday night as England host Albania at Wembley in their opening fixture of the 2026 World Cup qualifiers. The two sides last met during qualifying for the 2022 tournament, with England comfortably winning both matches by an aggregate score of 7-0. More recently, the Three Lions topped their UEFA Nations League group under interim boss Lee Carsley, winning five of six games.
Albania, in contrast, endured a difficult Nations League campaign, finishing bottom of their League C group despite collecting seven points. Their Euro 2024 campaign ended in the group stage, though they did manage a respectable draw against Croatia.
Now under the leadership of Tuchel, who has signed an 18-month contract through to the World Cup, England will aim for a fresh start. The former Champions League-winning manager has called for a braver, more dynamic style of play, criticising the team’s tentative approach in their Euro 2024 final loss to Spain.
One thing that won’t change is Harry Kane leading the line. The Bayern Munich forward has scored 21 goals in 22 Bundesliga starts, with 33 shots on target in 24 appearances. In the Champions League, he’s produced 18 shots on target in 11 games, hitting the target in 10 of those. His consistency extends to England duty too, with nine shots on target from 15 attempts in his last five Nations League appearances.
With Tuchel’s attacking mindset and Kane’s relentless form — plus his likely role on penalties — expect the England captain to register at least two shots on target in what should be a high-energy opener.
- Best Bet: Harry Kane over 1.5 shots on target at 2.0 with Ladbrokes
Moldova vs Norway
Norway begin their 2026 World Cup qualifying campaign on Saturday evening with a trip to face Moldova at the Zimbru Stadium. They are joined in Group I by Israel, Estonia, and the loser of Germany vs Italy in the Nations League playoffs.
Moldova had a solid 2024, winning six of their 10 matches and earning promotion from Nations League League D. However, their wins came largely against weaker opposition, and a 4-0 home defeat to Ukraine alongside a 1-0 defeat in Malta exposed their limits. They have never beaten Norway in five attempts, and despite strong recent home form, they face a major step up in class here.
Norway, who missed Euro 2024, ended last year positively, topping their Nations League group and thrashing Slovenia and Kazakhstan by an aggregate of 9-1. Erling Haaland scored four in those two games and is expected to lead the line again on Saturday.
Haaland has scored 38 goals in 39 caps and has hit 62 shots on target in his last 35 appearances for Norway – averaging 1.77 per game. In the Nations League alone, he managed 14 shots on target in just seven matches.
Against a Moldova side who give up space and struggle against top opposition, Norway are likely to dominate possession and chances, making 2-3 shots on target for Haaland a highly probable outcome.
- Best Bet: Erling Haaland over 1.5 shots on target at 1.77 with Unibet
- Best Bet: Erling Haaland over 2.5 shots on target at 2.45 with Ladbrokes
Upcoming match previews and betting tips
- Fri 19:45 Northern Ireland vs Switzerland
- Fri 23:30 Uruguay vs Argentina
- SlipsTips’ Tips: Goals fancied at Firhill on Friday night
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