In football betting, a “shot on target” typically refers to any shot directed towards the goal that would have gone in had it not been saved by the goalkeeper or blocked by the last defender.
This betting market involves predicting the total number of shots on target during a match by a team or individual player, often including shots that were saved or blocked but were otherwise on target.
Our shots on target betting picks
Stoke City vs Watford
Watford travel to Stoke in the Championship on Saturday, aiming to push into the playoff positions. They currently sit ninth in the table, just three points behind sixth-placed Blackburn Rovers. Stoke, on the other hand, have endured a disappointing season, sitting just five points above the relegation zone. With only eight wins from 34 matches, they have struggled throughout the campaign and hold the third-worst home record in the division.
Defensively, Stoke have been vulnerable, conceding a high volume of shots on target. Only Plymouth have allowed more this season, while Stoke rank 17th for shots on target conceded at home. Watford, despite being inconsistent, still rank in the top ten for shots on target per game away from home, averaging 3.59 per match.
One player who has been particularly prolific for Watford in terms of shooting is Giorgi Chakvetadze. This season, he has registered 58 shots, with 23 of those hitting the target from 32 starts. His recent form has been especially impressive, recording five shots on target across his last two games against Luton and Middlesbrough. Overall, he has had at least one shot on target in 15 of his 32 appearances, and more recently, he has hit the target in seven of his last 11 Championship matches. Playing from the left flank, he is likely to cause significant problems for a struggling Stoke side.
Stoke have conceded seven goals in their last two league fixtures, further highlighting their defensive concerns. Watford have been far from dominant on the road, winning just four times this season, but they have still managed to score an average of 1.35 goals per away game. With both teams struggling for consistency, backing Chakvetadze to register a shot on target presents strong value. He is priced at 1.83 with Bet365, but Unibet offers a much more appealing 2.43 for the same bet, making it a solid selection based on his recent form.
- Best Bet: Giorgi Chakvetadze over 0.5 shots at 2.43 with Unibet
Luton Town vs Portsmouth
Portsmouth travel to relegation-threatened Luton Town, who continue to struggle following their drop from the Premier League last season. Luton have managed just three wins in their last 20 matches and are currently on a 13-game winless run in the Championship. A change of manager has done little to improve their fortunes, with Matt Bloomfield arriving from Wycombe Wanderers but failing to turn things around. Since his appointment, Luton have failed to win in eight matches, drawing three and losing five, while conceding 11 goals during that stretch. Defensively, they have allowed an average of 3.5 shots on target per game, highlighting their vulnerability.
Portsmouth have had their own inconsistencies this season, particularly away from home, where their record stands at W2-D4-L7, scoring 17 goals in those matches. Despite their struggles, one standout performer has been Josh Murphy, who has had an excellent season since joining from Oxford United. Murphy has registered 70 shots in 28 starts, showing his willingness to attack.
His recent form has been particularly impressive, registering at least one shot on target in eight of his last ten matches, with a total of 13 shots on target in that period. He has also attempted at least two shots in 11 of his last 12 matches, accumulating 37 shots across those games. With Portsmouth likely to take advantage of a Luton side low on confidence, Murphy should have plenty of opportunities to test the keeper.
Backing Josh Murphy to register at least one shot on target at odds of 2.1 with Unibet or BetMGM looks like an excellent value bet given his recent shooting numbers and Luton’s ongoing struggles.
- Best Bet: Josh Murphy over 0.5 shots on target at 2.1 with Unibet
Oxford Utd vs Coventry City
Ellis Simms has been thriving under the management of Frank Lampard, enjoying a strong run of form. He now has six goals in 18 starts this season, and his performances have improved significantly in recent weeks. Over his last eight games, he has scored four goals, taken 19 shots, and registered 10 shots on target, making him a key attacking threat for Coventry.
Coventry are in excellent form, and with Oxford struggling defensively, Simms should have plenty of opportunities to add to his tally. Oxford rank among the bottom eight teams for shots on target conceded at home, while Coventry have been one of the most attacking sides on their travels. Since the start of the year, only five teams have registered more shots on target in away matches than Coventry, who average 4.7 shots on target per game.
Backing Simms to have at least one shot on target at 1.74 with Unibet is a solid bet, worth a double stake. However, a more appealing option is to back Simms for over 0.5 shots on target and over 1.5 total shots, which is priced at 2.23 with Ladbrokes or 2.44 with Unibet. For those looking for a bigger price, Simms to register two or more shots on target is available at 3.8 with Unibet which offers strong value given his recent form.
- Best Bet: Ellis Simms to have over 1.5 shots and over 0.5 shots on target at 2.44 with Unibet
Further Reading
- Manchester United vs Fulham Prediction and Betting Tips
- Newcastle United vs Brighton and Hove Albion Prediction and Betting Tips
- Preston vs Burnley Prediction and Betting Tips
- Bournemouth vs Wolverhampton Wanderers Prediction and Betting Tips
- Manchester City vs Plymouth Argyle Prediction and Betting Tips
