In football betting, a “shot on target” typically refers to any shot directed towards the goal that would have gone in had it not been saved by the goalkeeper or blocked by the last defender.
This betting market involves predicting the total number of shots on target during a match by a team or individual player, often including shots that were saved or blocked but were otherwise on target.
Last weekend we followed up the previous column with winners at 6/4 and 16/5. That takes the last two columns to a combined profit of 6.7 units.
Our shots on target betting picks
Nottingham Forest vs Man City
Phil Foden is a strong candidate for one or more shots on target.
Recent output drives the case. Foden has registered nine shots on target across his last five games. That is 1.8 per match. The line only requires one, placing it well below his current production level.
Season volume supports consistency. He has taken 34 shots across 15 appearances, with 12 hitting the target. That return comes despite role rotation across wide and central positions. His shooting involvement does not depend on a fixed role or a specific game script.
Team context matters. Manchester City dominate possession and territory in most fixtures. That creates sustained final third pressure rather than isolated chances. Foden remains one of the primary shooting outlets during long spells around the box, either arriving late or receiving between the lines.
The fixture profile suits him. Nottingham Forest concede 193 shots overall. They allow over 100 shots inside the box and a steady volume from range. That defensive shape invites repeat attempts rather than suppressing volume entirely. City attackers are rarely restricted to one shooting lane.
Execution has been clean. Recent shots on target came in controlled wins, not chase scenarios. Those attempts were generated from settled possession, cut backs, and edge of box space. That raises reliability compared to counter based shooting.
Foden also plays long minutes. He regularly reaches 85 to 90 minutes when starting, increasing exposure to late game chances.
Nine shots on target in five games, strong season volume, heavy team dominance, and a favourable opponent profile all align. One shot on target is a low threshold within his current usage.
- Best Bet: Phil Foden over 0.5 shots on target at 7/9 with Unibet
Man Utd vs Newcastle
Matheus Cunha profiles strongly for one or more shots on target from outside the box.
His shot map drives the bet. Cunha has taken 47 total shots across 14 appearances. 22 of those have come from outside the box. No Manchester United player matches that long range volume.
He operates in the inside left channel and central pockets, receiving possession facing goal rather than with his back to it. That positioning creates space to shoot early from range.
Manchester United lead the league for total shots with 265. They also rank high for shots outside the box at 100. Sustained territory and recycling around the penalty area increases second phase shooting. Cunha remains involved even when the box is crowded, which pushes shot selection toward the edge of the area.
Opponent profile fits. Newcastle United concede 55 shots outside the box. They protect the central box well but allow time to midfield and second line attackers. That defensive shape funnels attempts toward Cunha’s preferred zones rather than six-yard finishes.
Recent output adds confirmation. Cunha recorded two shots on target from outside the box against Aston Villa. He followed with two more against Bournemouth. Four long range shots on target across two games shows accuracy rather than low probability volume.
The bet only needs one. Cunha’s role, team shot volume, opponent concession profile, and recent execution all align cleanly for at least one shot on target from outside the box.
- Best Bet: Matheus Cunha over 0.5 shots on target from outside the box at 1/1 with Paddy
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Sunderland vs Leeds
Dominic Calvert-Lewin profiles strongly to take at least three shots.
Recent volume is clear. Across his last four games he has taken three shots in every match. That is twelve shots without variance. The output is stable rather than opponent driven, which matters for a volume based line.
His role guarantees attempts. Calvert-Lewin remains the fixed number nine. He does not drift wide or drop deep for build up. His touches are concentrated in the penalty area, where shots arrive quickly through crosses, cut backs, and second balls. When Leeds sustain pressure, he is the primary end point.
Minutes support exposure. When starting, he regularly plays between 85 and 90 minutes. That gives time for early chances and late game volume. Fatigue in opposition defences increases shot frequency rather than suppressing it.
The opponent profile suits shot accumulation. Sunderland concede 236 shots overall. They allow 136 shots in the box, one of the highest figures in the league. Their defensive structure allows volume rather than limiting access. Missing several players due to AFCON further weakens organisation and tracking inside the area.
Game state helps. Leeds home matches stay open. They generate repeat entries rather than protecting leads early. That keeps the striker involved across both halves.
Calvert-Lewin also shoots willingly. Even in tighter games he averages multiple attempts rather than waiting for one clear chance.
Three shots is not a ceiling performance. It matches his recent baseline, his tactical role, opponent concession levels, and his minute profile. The line aligns with expectation rather than upside.
- Best Bet: Dominic Calvert-Lewin over 2.5 shots at 2/1 with Bet365
The Betting Desk is run by Neil Potter. Neil built and refined all of the site’s data models, helping it grow into a trusted source of analysis across the Premier League, EFL and major tournaments. His models track key metrics, long term trends and areas where market prices move away from underlying performance.
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