In football betting, a “shot on target” typically refers to any shot directed towards the goal that would have gone in had it not been saved by the goalkeeper or blocked by the last defender.
This betting market involves predicting the total number of shots on target during a match by a team or individual player, often including shots that were saved or blocked but were otherwise on target.
Our shots on target betting picks
Bournemouth vs Liverpool
Backing Virgil van Dijk to have a header on target against Bournemouth is supported by clear Premier League data on both the player and the opponent.
Virgil van Dijk’s shooting profile in the league is highly specialised. He has taken 13 shots in Premier League matches this season. Twelve of those attempts are headers. That is a 92.3% header share. His involvement in shooting situations is almost exclusively aerial and almost entirely from set plays. When he registers a shot, it is normally from a corner or wide free kick, attacking the central zones of the box. This creates a direct and narrow path to a header on target outcome.
Bournemouth’s defensive record from set pieces increases the relevance of this profile. Bournemouth have conceded 91 shots from set pieces in the Premier League. That figure is the fourth highest in the division. More importantly, those shots have produced 15 goals, the most conceded from set pieces by any team in the league. This indicates sustained pressure combined with poor defensive outcomes. Their issue is not isolated incidents, but repeated concessions of first contact and second phase chances.
The matchup is clean. Bournemouth allow high set piece shot volume and convert those chances into goals at an elevated rate. Virgil van Dijk is Liverpool’s primary aerial target and almost never shoots with his feet. A single headed effort on target fits both patterns.
This makes a header on target a focused and data aligned angle rather than a speculative goal bet.
- Best Bet: Virgil van Dijk over 0.5 headers on target at 9/2 with William Hill
Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal
Backing Neco Williams to have 2+ shots is supported by role, minutes security, recent volume, and the matchup.
Neco Williams has started all 22 Premier League matches and played 1,980 minutes. He is locked in for ninety minutes with no rotation risk. Across the season he has taken 23 shots, averaging 1.05 per game, but that baseline masks a clear upward trend.
Recent form is stronger. Williams has taken 12 shots across his last nine league appearances. That is 1.33 shots per game. Crucially, this run includes multiple matches with two or more attempts. He has failed to register a shot only once in that period, and that came against Arsenal, the league leaders and most suppressive defensive side Forest have faced. Outside of that fixture, his involvement has been consistent and repeatable.
Usage explains the increase. Williams plays both left back and right back and is encouraged to advance in open game states. Forest concede territory and spend long spells defending, which creates second phase opportunities when possession turns. Williams regularly steps into crossing zones, follows play into the box, and attacks loose clearances. His shots are spread across wide box entries and broken phases rather than low probability long range efforts.
The opponent profile supports volume. Brentford concede 246 shots this season, including 142 inside the box. Their defensive structure allows sustained pressure and repeat attacks rather than one and done sequences. Full backs facing Brentford are regularly involved in second phase play.
With 90 minute security, rising recent volume, and a matchup that supports repeat attempts, 2+ shots is justified on process rather than finishing variance.
- Best Bet: Neco Williams over 1.5 shots at 23/10 with Betway
Man City vs Wolves
Backing Mateus Mane for 1+ shot on target is supported by clear Premier League evidence on usage, accuracy, and minutes.
Mateus Mane has developed into a reliable shooting option since the turn of the year. Across his last five Premier League appearances he has taken 11 shots, with seven hitting the target. That equates to 2.2 shots per game and 1.4 shots on target per game. He has landed at least one shot on target in four of those five matches, showing repeat involvement rather than a one off spike.
Match level detail supports the trend. Mane recorded two shots on target against West Ham United, one against Everton, one against Manchester United, one against Newcastle United, and two away at Liverpool. These attempts are not low percentage efforts. Most come from central zones, late arrivals into the box, and second phase situations following turnovers or recycled possession.
Role stability strengthens the angle. Mane has been used primarily in central midfield and advanced midfield roles, with freedom to step beyond the ball. His positioning consistently places him close to shooting lanes rather than deep build up areas.
Minutes security is strong. He has played ninety minutes in four of the last five league games, with no early substitutions reducing opportunity.
Opponent context matters. Manchester City dominate possession but still allow shots during transitions and broken phases. Wolves have averaged 8.5 shots per game across the last four league matches, an increase on their eight game baseline.
Regular shooting volume, above average accuracy, and stable minutes align cleanly. This supports Mateus Mane to record 1+ shot on target as a process based angle rather than a finishing dependent one.
- Best Bet: Mateus Mane over 0.5 shots on target at 6/4 with Bet365
The Betting Desk is run by Neil Potter. Neil built and refined all of the site’s data models, helping it grow into a trusted source of analysis across the Premier League, EFL and major tournaments. His models track key metrics, long term trends and areas where market prices move away from underlying performance.
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