In football betting, a “shot on target” typically refers to any shot directed towards the goal that would have gone in had it not been saved by the goalkeeper or blocked by the last defender.
This betting market involves predicting the total number of shots on target during a match by a team or individual player, often including shots that were saved or blocked but were otherwise on target.
Our shots on target betting picks
Since the start of December, this column has delivered a 9.49% ROI, which is a solid return given our average odds of just under 5.5. Last time, we backed two players in the same match to register shots on target, which resulted in a profitable outcome. This week, we are aiming to capitalise on similar angles, with a focus on set-piece opportunities across several fixtures.
Leicester City vs Arsenal
Arsenal’s injury crisis continues to worsen, with Kai Havertz now ruled out for the majority—if not all—of the season. He joins Bukayo Saka, Gabriel Jesus, and Gabriel Martinelli on the sidelines, leaving Raheem Sterling, Leandro Trossard, and Ethan Nwaneri as the likely front three.
Nwaneri, despite limited game time, has shown promise. He has only started three Premier League matches this season but across the season, he has played 291 minutes, managing nine shots, averaging a shot every 32 minutes and a shot on target every 72 minutes. Notably, he registered one shot in each of his three starts, and in two of those, he only played 45 minutes. Against Leicester’s vulnerable defence, Nwaneri is likely to find more opportunities.
Leicester have been poor defensively, conceding an average of 16 shots and 5.25 shots on target per home match. Since the appointment of Ruud van Nistelrooy, things have only worsened. Under his management, Leicester are conceding 5.85 shots on target per game across all competitions, which rises to 6.18 shots on target per game in the Premier League.
Despite Arsenal’s injury struggles, they should still create plenty of chances, and Nwaneri looks like an excellent candidate to register at least one shot in this match.
- Best Bet: Ethan Nwaneri over 0.5 shots on target at 1.80 with Skybet
Southampton vs Bournemouth
Despite last week’s win over Ipswich, Southampton still seem destined for a return to the Championship. Set pieces have been their downfall on numerous occasions this season. No team has conceded more shots from set-piece situations than Southampton, with 116 shots allowed in 24 games. Only Wolves have conceded more goals from set pieces, and the Saints hold the highest xGA from dead-ball situations in the Premier League.
This weekend, they face a Bournemouth side that will attack aggressively, with players like Justin Kluivert and Dango Ouattara likely to test the Southampton defence. However, their odds for registering one or more shots on target are relatively low, so a more appealing angle is to back Dean Huijsen to register a header at goal. Given Southampton’s vulnerability at set pieces, Huijsen will be a key target for dead-ball deliveries. He has already scored two goals this season, registering 11 total shots, with nine of those attempts coming from headers. Notably, both of his shots on target resulted in goals.
Southampton will likely sit back and soak up pressure, trying to stay in the game as long as possible. Bournemouth’s pace and attacking flair should create plenty of problems, leading to free kicks and corners—ideal opportunities for Huijsen to get forward and attack the ball. With Southampton’s defensive frailties, this provides a great value angle for a player known for his aerial threat.
Over the last eight games, Bournemouth sit first for xG from set pieces meaning that they will test the Saints backline constantly throughout this match.
- Best Bet: Dean Huijsen 1+ header on target at 7.0 with Skybet
Tottenham vs Man Utd
Tottenham have conceded the fifth-highest xGA from set pieces in the Premier League this season, largely due to their ongoing injury crisis. Key defensive players like Cristian Romero, Destiny Udogie, Micky van de Ven, and Rodrigo Bentancur are all sidelined, leaving Spurs' backline severely weakened. This will likely force Ben Davies to slot in as a centre-back.
Spurs have lost confidence and form, while Manchester United, though far from their best, have shown more consistency in their recent performances. United may struggle to create quality chances from open play, but Spurs' vulnerability at set pieces presents a big opportunity. Over the last four matches, no team in the Premier League has a higher xGA from set pieces than Spurs, and over the last eight, they rank third in that category.
If United are to capitalise, Harry Maguire is likely to be the key threat on set pieces. His aerial ability was on full display in the recent match against Leicester, where he attacked a late free kick and helped secure United’s passage to the next round of the FA Cup.
Sky Bet offers Maguire at 5.0 to have a shot on target, which is great value given his record. For those seeking a bigger price, Maguire is 6.5 to register a header on target. He has started 12 games this season, recording five shots, with four of those coming from headers. Given the small price difference, it’s more practical to back Maguire to have any shot on target at 5.0, as this covers all scenarios while still offering excellent value. With Spurs’ weakness on set pieces, Maguire is well-positioned to take advantage.
- Best Bet: Harry Maguire over 0.5 shots on target at 5.0 with Skybet
Combining Harry Maguire and Dean Huijsen to have a header on target will give you odds of 45.50 with Skybet.
