In football betting, a “shot on target” typically refers to any shot directed towards the goal that would have gone in had it not been saved by the goalkeeper or blocked by the last defender.
This betting market involves predicting the total number of shots on target during a match by a team or individual player, often including shots that were saved or blocked but were otherwise on target.
Our shots on target betting picks
Liverpool vs Sunderland
Sunderland travel to Anfield on Tuesday for their league match against Liverpool, and the set-piece data gives a solid platform for a Dan Ballard shot.
He has eight meaningful starts this season and has produced an attempt in six. The only games without a shot are Burnley, where he played eight minutes before going off, and the away match at Fulham. Across the campaign he has recorded thirteen shots and ten are headers.
His total xG stands at 1.1 and every chance has come from aerial involvement. Sunderland direct a high share of their set-piece delivery towards him and his presence is a regular feature whenever he completes a full match.
Liverpool’s defensive numbers increase the appeal. They have conceded forty-eight set-piece shots and 4.16 xG, and only West Ham have conceded more goals from set pieces this season. Their centre-backs hold strong aerial profiles in open play, yet the team structure still allows volume against dead-ball situations.
Sunderland bring one of the highest set-piece outputs in the league with 49 shots and 4.71 xG. Ballard remains their primary aerial option and his attempts arrive from repeatable positions inside the box. The matchup supports another effort and the established pattern across his starts keeps the 1+ shot line in a favourable position.
- Best Bet: Dan Ballard over 0.5 shots at 5/6 with BetVictor
Crystal Palace vs Man Utd
Crystal Palace travel into their midweek fixture with a clear set-piece platform, and Marc Guehi profiles strongly for a single attempt.
He has started all twelve league matches and has produced a shot in seven of them. His overall output stands at eight efforts, two on target, with every attempt arriving from set pieces or second-phase pressure inside the box.
His xG is 0.9 from these situations and his positioning remains consistent across each match. Palace carry one of the league’s strongest set-piece attacks with 61 shots and 7.18 xG. Their delivery structure places all three centre-backs in advanced zones and this pattern repeats across their recent fixtures.
Saturday against Manchester United was an irritation because Guehi failed to register an attempt while both of the other centre-backs recorded shots. The wider trend still holds weight. His attempts have arrived against Nottingham Forest, Aston Villa, Everton, Arsenal and Wolves, and all came from routine Palace movements at corners or wide free kicks.
His ninety-minute record across every start supports repeat involvement and he continues to add shot-creating actions at restarts, reaching twenty for the season.
The matchup this week places him against a defence that concedes volume from set pieces and allows central players space to attack deliveries. Guehi’s rate of attempts across seven of 12 starts and his consistent presence in Palace’s set-piece patterns keep him well-positioned for the 1+ shot line.
- Best Bet: Marc Guehi over 0.5 shots at 4/5 with 888
Chelsea vs Arsenal
Matthijs de Ligt has started all thirteen league matches for Manchester United and his recent set-piece involvement has risen sharply. He has produced eleven shots and three on target across the season, all arriving from set pieces or second-phase actions. His non-penalty xG stands at 1.5 and every chance comes from central aerial positions. United use him as a primary target alongside.
His recent trend strengthens the angle. De Ligt has produced five shots in his last three matches. He delivered one effort against Crystal Palace, generated three attempts and 0.4 xG against Everton, and scored a headed goal against Tottenham. Earlier-season involvement against Arsenal, Burnley, Brentford and Liverpool confirms a consistent pattern before the current surge.
The matchup this week adds further support. West Ham hold the league’s worst defensive set-piece record. They have conceded ten goals, sixty-five shots and 6.28 xG from dead-ball situations, ranking bottom for goals conceded and near-bottom for volume faced.
Their structure allows repeated central entries and they struggle to defend first and second-phase deliveries. United, by contrast, remain one of the stronger attacking set-piece teams with fifty-three shots and 6.24 xG.
De Ligt’s combination of season-long output, five attempts in his last three games and facing the weakest defensive set-piece unit positions him as a clear aerial threat for this round.
- Best Bet: Matthijs de Ligt over 0.5 shots at 10/13 with Ladbrokes
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The Betting Desk is run by Neil Potter. Neil built and refined all of the site’s data models, helping it grow into a trusted source of analysis across the Premier League, EFL and major tournaments. His models track key metrics, long term trends and areas where market prices move away from underlying performance.
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