San Siro, Sunday, 7.45, live on BT Sport
I'M well aware no two games are the same and no two team performances are identical.
That was made clear by Millwall for example who were thumped 5-1 at home to Derby last weekend then followed up by beating Championship leaders Blackpool three days later.
I'm putting up the analogy because since watching the AC Milan v Celtic Champions League tie last week I've been looking to back against the Italians – and on Sunday the face a tough clash at home to Napoli.
Sure, they won 2-0 and showed plenty of fighting spirit but the bottom line is they were lucky and should have lost. Celtic lacked a cutting edge but had so much possession it looked like they were at home at times.
This happened mainly because Milan were missing eight or nine first-team stars. The likes of Kaka, Riccardo Montolivo, Stephan El Shaarawy, Giampaolo Pazzini and Ignazio Abate are out or doubtful.
If it's the same sort of personnel that started against Celtic then you've got to fear for them against a Napoli outfit who thoroughly deserved to beat Champions League runners-up Dortmund in midweek.
Rafael Benitez's men are emerging as serious challengers to Juventus for the title and new signings Gonzalo Higuaín, Pepe Reina and Jose María Callejon are all class acts. Crucially Napoli also kept hold off star man Marek Hamsik.
The Slovakian has a decent goals record but I'm looking to former Real Madrid star Higuain for the opener. He netted first against Dortmund and is 5-1 at BetVictor to repeat the dose.
Even without Kaka and Shaarawy, Milan have class up front in Alessandro Matri and Mario Balotelli but both started against Celtic and had limited opportunites.
Napoli haven't beaten AC at the San Siro for six seasons but have they played such a weakened side? I'm not sure.
Despite their troubles Milan are favourites at 7-4 with William Hill so you can have 9-5 Napoli at BetVictor and that's the Super Single for me.
Super Single
Napoli
(9-5, BetVictor)
Resident football tipster at Scotland's most read newspaper, the Daily Record, for over 20 years and proud host of one the best betting communities on the web with daily betting tips.
Napoli to win great bet
Backed qpr juve and atletico Madrid without barca and real,to win there leagues 30/1 at the start off the season
I think Napoli are my big danger
Porto away win & benfica away win with napoli make a nice treble
Sassuolo vs inter tommorrow morning @ 4/5 nice way to start the day. Sassuolo sit bottom of serie a and three defeats in the last three. Inter sit 3rd only losing points to juventus in their last game.Cant see anything but an inter win here. -1 handicap @ 23/10 also appeals. Small stake to start the day for me.
Agrentina Primera Division
Rosario v Arsenal Sarandi 00:15
Another stab at a late match that looks to offer value:
Rosario are going through a bad patch at the minute losing five of their last six matches conceding ten in the process, Sarandi on the other hand are in great form – they remain the only team unbeaten in the league, have won their last two away matches and currently sit second in the division. Couple this with the fact that the hosts are second bottom in the league and under pressure to perform at home – and I’d say that Sarandi @ 14/5 represents very good value for small stakes.
Extra note that eight of the last ten matches for both of these teams has finished under 2.5.
Arsenal Sarandi @ 14/5 (my super single)
Under 2.5 goals @ 8/13
Good luck if you’re having a bet.
Arsenal di Sarandi are at home to Godoy
My big pal chef Ross has bashed the bookies all week and he’s tipping Dundee utd v Motherwell over 2.5 goals at 39/40 with bet victor. Although I trust his cooking skills, im not sure on his fitba tips, any thoughts guys?
I came on to post my single today but I see my little fat friend has beat me to it (Martino what are you like) but I do fancy Dundee united over 2.5 as I think the are starting to score freely and although Motherwell haven’t been banging them in latly when they play the terrors it usually makes for a good open game!
Seeing as modest Martino posted my tip ill post his. He’s is convinced that little first scorer for rangers is the bet and who am I to doubt him iv seen his bookie account balance (the dream of the ice cream parlour could soon be a reality my friend and ill be lookin for free 99’s for life) I think Jon daly anytime scorer at as good as 11/10 is a safer bet, well good luck guys and Martino give me a phone on my mobile telephone today thanks!!
Have to agree Napoli look a decent single.
Inter away also looks a solid bet.
Gone for a trixie on:
Sevilla
Inter
Napoli
What is the odda on ur trixie honor
Great pick Sam. Had them to be winning at half time 11/8 3-0 .. Great start to my 4-fold
Great pick sam. Read your bit and it looked a nail on winner when I did my homework. Great start to the day thanks
No probs!! 4 nil now, did the -1 handicap also so thats in prettt much!!!
7 nil inter!!!
And Andy Little bags the opener for rangers….get in!!!