Wolves v Aston Villa
Wolverhampton Wanderers

Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Aston Villa

, KO: 20:00 , Molineux Stadium
Aston Villa

Two clubs at opposite ends of the Premier League table meet at Molineux on Friday night as rock-bottom Wolves play host to third-placed Aston Villa in a Midlands derby.

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Wolves saw their three-game unbeaten run come to an end in agonising fashion last Sunday, as they conceded in the last minute to lose 1-0 at Crystal Palace in a game they played the final half an hour with 10 men.

Despite their position in the table, Rob Edwards’s men come into this clash having lost just four of their previous 10 Premier League encounters (W1-D5-L4), including a dramatic 2-2 with leaders Arsenal in their last home outing.

Aston Villa’s sticky run of form in the Premier League continued last weekend, as they required an 88th-minute equaliser to draw 1-1 at home to Leeds United.

Unai Emery’s charges have now won just two of their previous seven Premier League clashes (W2-D3-L2), leaving them 10 points behind leaders Arsenal and only three clear of fourth-placed Manchester United in the table.

How the bookies view it: Villa favourites

Aston Villa come into this clash as favourites to leave Molineux with all three points, with bet365 pricing an away success at 9/10.

Wolves are 29/10 to grab just their second Premier League win of the season on Friday night, whilst the draw is 27/10.

Head to head: Home a big advantage

Aston Villa won the reverse fixture at Villa Park at the end of November 1-0, extending their unbeaten record at home to Wolves to four matches (W3-D1-L0).

However, the Old Gold are unbeaten in each of their past four meetings with Villa at Molineux (W3-D1-L0), including a 2-0 success last season.

Players to watch: Tammy to find the target again?

Tammy Abraham was the hero for Aston Villa last weekend, as he bundled home a late equaliser to rescue a point for Unai Emery’s men.

The former Chelsea and Roma striker also scored in the FA Cup against Newcastle in the game before, and he is an appealing 1/1 to Score or Assist at bet365 for the third consecutive game on Friday, should he start ahead of Ollie Watkins.

Backed a player to find the net? Check our Goalscorer Betting guide to see how the markets work and where to find value.

Predicted line-ups:

Wolves will be without the injured Leon Chiwome and Hwang Hee-Chan, whilst Ladislav Krejci is suspended following his red card at Selhurst Park last weekend.

Unai Emery will be unable to call upon Boubacar Kamara, Youri Tielemans and John McGinn who are all injured.

Wolverhampton Wanderers: Sa, Mosquera, Bueno, Toti, Tchatchoua, Andre, Bellegarde, Mane, Bueno, Armstrong, Arokodare

Aston Villa: Martinez, Cash, Konsa, Mings, Maatsen, Onana, Luiz, Sancho, Rogers, Barkley, Abraham

🔍 X-pert tip from The Betting Desk
Don't know your xG from your xP? We've got you covered with our data-led X-pert tip!

MFT's X-pert tip: Villa to avoid defeat in low scoring game

Aston Villa double chance and under 3.5 goals is supported by the underlying metrics on both sides.

Wolves have won the xG battle in only five of 14 home games, 35.7%. At Molineux they average 1.08 NPxG and 1.46 NPxGA across the season, while over their last four home fixtures they have produced 1.11 NPxG and 1.21 NPxGA, collecting 3.86 xPTS and just two actual points.

In that recent spell they have averaged 5.3 shots inside the box and conceded 8.3, with three big chances for and five against.

Villa’s away profile is also measured. They average 1.26 NPxG and 1.14 NPxGA on the road across the season. In their last four away games they have posted 1.39 xG and 1.92 xGA, collecting 4.22 xPTS. They have averaged 6.0 shots inside the box in that period and conceded 9.8, with four big chances created and five allowed.

With moderate xG totals, balanced SIB numbers and neither side dominating consistently, Villa avoiding defeat in a game under 3.5 goals fits the data profile.

Anything else catch the eye?

Goals have been an issue for Wolves all season and for Aston Villa since the turn of the year, meaning I’m tempted by the 1/1 on offer at Betfred for Under 2.5 Goals.

Aston Villa’s previous seven Premier League encounters have produced just eight goals, with Under 2.5 Goals landing in all seven (100%) of them, whilst six of Wolves’ last eight league outings have also featured fewer than four match goals.

What’s more, this fixture has tended to be low-scoring in recent seasons, with the last seven meetings between the sides averaging just 2.00 goals per game, with Under 2.5 Goals landing in six (86%) of them.

Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Aston Villa Betting Tips & Predictions
Under 2.5 Goals
1/1
Betfred
Tammy Abraham to Score or Assist
1/1
Bet365
Further Reading
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