Tottenham Hotspur host Arsenal in the Premier League on Sunday at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in one of the defining fixtures of the season. The North London derby arrives with both sides carrying contrasting underlying profiles across recent weeks.
This will be Igor Tudors first game in charge of Spurs. They come into the game with 10.13 xPTS across their last eight matches, averaging 1.46 xG and conceding 1.67 xGA per game in that spell.
They allow 8.8 shots inside the box across the last eight, showing vulnerability when opponents sustain pressure. In the last four that defensive exposure remains, with 1.75 xGA per game and 10.0 shots inside the box conceded. Their attacking output sits at 1.37 xG across the last four, reflecting involvement in competitive rather than dominant matches.
Arsenal’s recent numbers are stronger. Across the last eight they post 16.02 xPTS with 1.73 xG and just 0.85 xGA per game. They average 8.6 shots inside the box while conceding only 3.8, underlining territorial control. In the last four they record 8.32 xPTS, concede only 0.73 xGA and allow 4.0 shots inside the box per match.
With Spurs competitive but defensively open and Arsenal showing control in both boxes, the derby sets up as a tactical contest between attacking ambition and structured efficiency.
How the bookies view it: Visitors favourites
Tottenham are priced at 27/5 in the match winner market, which equates to a 15.6% implied chance of a home victory. The draw is available at 16/5, representing a 23.8% probability, while Arsenal are priced at 8/13, implying a 61.9% chance of an away win.
The goals markets lean toward a moderate to high scoring expectation. Over 2.5 goals is priced at 5/6, which equates to a 54.5% implied probability. Both teams to score is available at 10/11, representing a 52.4% implied chance of goals at both ends.
Head to Head: Gunners hold the advantage
Tottenham and Arsenal have met consistently across recent Premier League campaigns, with the balance of results leaning toward Arsenal. The most recent league meeting in November finished 4-1 to Arsenal at the Emirates, following a 2-1 Arsenal win in January.
The last clash at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium ended 1-0 to Arsenal, while April 2024 produced a 3-2 away victory for the Gunners. Spurs’ most recent league success in this fixture came in May 2022 with a 3-0 home win.
Across the last 20 meetings in all competitions, Tottenham have won seven, drawn three and lost 10. The aggregate return in that period stands at 26 goals scored and 32 conceded, an average of 2.90 total goals per game. Spurs’ scoring output across that run sits at 1.30 goals per match, while Arsenal average 1.60. The split highlights a consistent edge in favour of Arsenal over a sustained sample.
Players to watch: Solanke foul watch
Solanke 2+ fouls is supported by his recent Premier League output.
Across his last four appearances he has committed six fouls, averaging 1.5 per game. Importantly, he has reached two or more fouls in two of those four matches. He made two away at Burnley and three at home to Manchester City, both high intensity fixtures where Tottenham had to defend for longer periods.
He has played the vast majority of minutes in those matches, so the numbers came across full game exposure. Against Manchester United he committed one foul in 79 minutes, and none against Newcastle despite playing 90.
With Arsenal averaging 8.6 shots inside the box across the last eight and likely to dominate territory, Tottenham’s central forward should again be involved in pressing and defensive duels. The recent trend supports Solanke reaching at least two fouls.
Predicted line-ups
Tottenham Hotspur 4-2-3-1: Vicario; Palhinha, Dragusin, van de Ven, Gray; Gallagher, Sarr; Spence, Kolo Muani, Tel; Simons.
Arsenal 4-3-3: Raya; Timber, Saliba, Gabriel, Hincapie; Zubimendi, Rice, Madueke; Saka, Gyokeres, Trossard.
Anything else catch the eye?
Under four goals and over three cards is supported by both performance data and historical trend in this fixture.
Across the last eight Spurs average 1.46 xG and 1.67 xGA, while Arsenal post 1.73 xG and concede just 0.85 xGA. Neither side’s recent total xG profile points toward extreme scorelines. Even with Spurs conceding chances, Arsenal’s defensive structure limits chaos. In the last four Arsenal allow only 0.73 xGA and 4.0 shots inside the box per game, suggesting control rather than end to end volatility.
Spurs generate 7.6 shots inside the box across the last eight and 6.5 in the last four, but Arsenal concede only 3.8 across the last eight. That contrast indicates periods of territorial battle rather than continuous high volume exchanges. The underlying numbers support a competitive game that stays within a three goal margin rather than breaking into a five goal outlier.
On the disciplinary side, the last nine meetings have averaged 5.22 cards, with both sides receiving a card in all nine. Peter Bankes’ matches average 4.33 cards, with 56% going over 3.5. The derby intensity, combined with consistent historical booking volume, supports at least four cards.
With controlled xG profiles and strong card trends, under four goals alongside over three cards is aligned with both data sets.
Tottenham vs Arsenal Betting Tips & Predictions
Further Reading
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