St Pauli's late resurgence now means Kiezkicker need just one more win to secure another season in the top flight. With one loss in the last five rounds, the hosts should feel confident to face the struggling Stuttgart.
St Pauli are a prime example that having a solid defence can make a difference even if your attack is not good enough. The Neighbourhood Kickers have scored the fewest goals out of all 18 teams in the league (26) but also have the third-best defence with just 36 conceded goals. With just one defeat in the last seven rounds, the team is now one win away from complete safety, as long as Heidenheim don't win their fixture from this round.
On the other end, St Pauli extended their winless streak to three in a row, after losing to that exact team – Heidenheim (1-0). Die Roten have just two wins in the last 10 fixtures across all competitions, when they picked up B2B wins over RB and Bochum. But even with their horrible Bundesliga performance, the Reds have a serious chance of ending this season with silverware, as they reached the DFB Pokal final.
How the bookies view it: Odds in the centre
In terms of odds, bookmakers believe this is the closest fixture in the entire round. The odds are almost identical and there isn't a proper favourite. You can pick St Pauli at 3/2, the draw at 23/10, or Stuttgart at 7/5.
Recent head to head: One-sided until recently
St Pauli and Stuttgart have a rich history, going back to the late 80s, but they hadn't played each other in a while before Kiezkicker got promoted to the elite last season. The interesting part is that St Pauli have only two wins against this rival in 18 H2Hs, and one of those wins was in the reverse fixture this season (1-0). Alternatively, Stuttgart have dominanted the rivalry for the most part, with 12 wins to their name.
Players to watch: Demirovic or a hard pass
There really isn't much to look forward to in this game when it comes to goals. St Pauli play near-perfect defence and barely score goals, and then neither of Stuttgart's players has produced anything noteworthy lately.
The only player with more than 10 goals this season is Ermedin Demirovic, but he hasn't scored in three consecutive games. He is capable, of course, and his hat-trick against Bochum was a prime example. We wouldn't bet our money on anyone else from the two teams, and even he doesn't feel like a good pick in this clash.
Probable line-ups
St Pauli: Vasilj, Nemeth, Heyden, Wahl, Treu, Smith, Boukhalfa, Saliakas, Sinani, Saad, Weishaupt
Stuttgart: Nubel, Stergiou, Jaquez, Chabot, Mittelstadt, Stiller, Karazor, Demirovic, Millot, Fuhrich, Woltemade
Anything else catch the eye?
While Stuttgart's fixtures featured some goal action in recent weeks, we wouldn't bet on an over against St Pauli, and especially when they are hosting the match. Only nine of their 31 fixtures produced three or more goals and they have the lowest average goals per game (2.0) in the league. The home-game stats are even more depressing, with 3 overs in 15 matches and an average of 1.7 goals per match.
Additionally, St Pauli are the team that has more to play for this week, and we don't see how they will allow defeat. Instead, we would risk it with the draw, as even a point would be extremely useful in their quest for survival.
This German Bundesliga match between St Pauli and Stuttgart will be played on and kick off at 14:30. Check below for our tipsters best St Pauli vs Stuttgart prediction. You may also visit our dedicated betting previews section for the most up to date previews.
GambleAware