Southampton host Leicester City at St Mary’s on Saturday in the FA Cup fourth round. Both sides arrive with contrasting momentum and the gap in recent performance frames this tie.
Southampton are unbeaten in five Championship matches and have won their last three. Over their last five league games they are 4-1-0, scoring nine and conceding four. Their season profile remains strong. They rank fourth on xPTS with 52.1 and have produced 54.9 xGF across 32 matches. That attacking output places them among the most consistent chance creators in the division. They have taken 457 shots, 164 on target, and average 0.12 xG per shot.
Leicester sit near the bottom following a six point deduction and are winless in six league games. Over their last five they are W0-D1-L4, conceding 11 goals. Their season xPTS stands at 33.8 with an xGD of -12.9, underlining structural issues at both ends. Defensively they have allowed 47.3 xGA across 32 matches.
The recent 4-3 meeting between these sides, where Leicester led 3-0 before losing, highlighted the contrast. Southampton carry momentum, attacking depth and stronger underlying numbers into this cup tie, while Leicester arrive under pressure with defensive fragility exposed.
How the bookies view it: Hosts favourites
Southampton are priced at 4/5 in the match winner market, which equates to a 55.6% implied chance of a home victory. The draw is available at 3/1, representing a 25.0% probability, while Leicester are priced at 73/20, implying a 21.5% chance of an away win.
The goals markets signal a stronger expectation of scoring. Over 2.5 goals is priced at 3/4, which equates to a 57.1% implied probability. Both teams to score is available at 4/6, representing a 60.0% implied chance.
Head to Head: Foxes edge it but goals at both ends
Across the last 20 competitive meetings between Southampton and Leicester City, the fixture has leaned toward Leicester while consistently producing open games. Leicester have recorded 10 wins in that span, Southampton have six, and four matches have ended level. The balance favours Leicester, yet Southampton have remained competitive across league and cup formats.
The aggregate score across those 20 matches stands at 45–23 in Leicester’s favour. Average goals per game sit at 3.40, highlighting a strong trend toward high scoring contests. The average goal difference of -1.10 from Southampton’s perspective underlines Leicester’s historical edge.
Recent meetings reinforce that pattern. The last four clashes have produced scorelines of 4–3, 3–0, 2–0, and 3–2. Three of those four featured at least three total goals. The 4–3 result on 10 February, where Leicester led 3–0 before losing, showed how quickly momentum can shift in this matchup. Overall, this fixture has been shaped more by attacking quality than defensive control.
Players to watch: Set piece woe for Foxes
Leicester’s vulnerability at set plays creates a clear angle for Taylor Harwood-Bellis.
Across 32 league matches Leicester have conceded 13 goals from set pieces, facing 149 shots and 14.18 xG in those situations. Set plays account for 25.49% of the goals they have allowed, with 35.48% of shots faced and 30.00% of xG against coming from dead ball phases. The volume and conversion against them highlight a structural weakness.
Harwood-Bellis offers direct upside in that area. He has taken 27 shots across 27 league appearances, averaging 1.0 per game, and has scored four goals. Two of those came in the 3-0 win over Leicester earlier in the season, when he converted both of his shots on target.
Southampton’s delivery and Leicester’s defensive record from corners and indirect free kicks align with his role. With consistent involvement and proven output in attacking set pieces, the matchup strongly supports a 1+ shot angle.
Predicted line-ups
Southampton (4-2-3-1): Peretz, Bree, Harwood-Bellis, Stephens, Welington, Downes, Charles, Matsuki, Azaz, Scienza, Stewart.
Leicester City (4-2-3-1): Stolarczyk, Kristiansen, Aluko, Nelson, Lascelles, Skipp, Winks, Page, Thomas, Fatawu, Ayew.
Anything else catch the eye?
Although a cup match we can use their league performances as a guide. Across 32 league games Southampton have generated 54.9 xGF and rank fourth on xPTS with 52.1. They have taken 457 shots with 164 on target, producing 0.12 xG per shot. Their attacking process is repeatable and sustained. Even though they have scored 48 from that total, the volume and quality of chances remain high.
Leicester’s underlying profile is weaker. They sit on 33.8 xPTS with an xGD of -12.9 and have conceded 47.3 xGA. Over their last five league matches they have allowed 11 goals and kept zero clean sheets. Their away clean sheet rate across the season is 6% and both teams to score has landed in 81% of their away fixtures.
In the recent head to head Leicester scored three early goals but still conceded four as they ended up losing the match 4-3.. That match reflects their broader trend. They create chances, but defensive errors and structural weakness undermine them.
Southampton arrive unbeaten in five and have won their last three. Leicester are winless in six. The gap in xPTS, defensive numbers and current form supports the home win.
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