Shelbourne play Crystal Palace in the Europa Conference League at Tallaght Stadium on Thursday. The Irish side sit low in the standings after four matches. They have collect just one point with a record of W0-D1-L3, a goal difference of -4 and are yet to score.
Their attacking process shows limited threat. They have 2.17 xG and four big chances. They have taken 32 shots with six on target. Touches in the box stand at 61. Final third pass accuracy sits at 60.2%.
Their average possession is 35.6%. Shelbourne show effort out of possession with 65 tackles and 37 interceptions, but they allow 95 touches in their own box. They have faced five fast break shots and four free-kick deliveries into dangerous areas. Their xPTS of 3.9 reflects their struggle to turn effort into points.
Crystal Palace travel in stronger condition. They have six points from two wins and two losses. They have scored six and conceded four. Their xG is 9.94 with 13 big chances, which shows a higher ceiling in attack.
Shot volume is 65 with 19 on target. They have 143 touches in the opposition box. Final third pass success is 66.9% from 510 attempts. Possession sits at 49.4%.
Palace show defensive control with one penalty faced, six headers faced and only52 touches allowed in their box. Ground duels won 56.7% and aerial duels won 56.4% add strength in key areas. Their xPTS of 9.1 places them at the top of process rankings. These numbers point to a clear gap in both penalty areas. Shelbourne need a high level of efficiency to compete. Palace hold the stronger profile in territory, creation and control and look set to dictate the game in Dublin.
How the bookies view it: Palace massive favourites
Shelbourne in the match winner market are 22/1 with a 4.3% implied chance. The draw is 7/1 at 12.5%. Crystal Palace are 18/100 with an 84.7% implied chance.
The goals markets show different expectations. Over 3.5 goals at 1/2 implies 66.7%. BTTS at 11/8 implies 42.1%.
Head to Head: First Meeting
First competitive meeting between these two teams
Players to watch: Back Mateta to score
Jean-Philippe Mateta has one goal in this European campaign and keeps the central striker role with four starts.
He has taken eleven shots in 281 minutes, including three on target, which equates to one shot every 25 minutes. In each match where he played more than forty-five minutes he recorded at least two attempts. His xG totals 2.2, built from regular close-range actions, with 1.0 against AZ and 0.8 against AEK Larnaca.
Palace have created thirteen big chances in four games and their wide supply supports his positioning in the box. He is on penalties, adding a further path to scoring. His involvement points to further opportunities and supports an anytime scorer selection.
Predicted line-ups
Shelbourne (4-2-3-1): Speel, Mbeng, Barrett, Ledwidge, Norris, Henry-Francis, Lunney, Kelly, McInroy, Wood, Odubeko.
Crystal Palace (4-3-3): Henderson, Canvot, Lacroix, Guehi, Clyne, Lerma, Hughes, Sosa, Devenny, Pino, Mateta.
Anything else catch the eye?
Palace win and both teams to score No aligns with the performance levels shown so far.
Palace hold a clear edge in chance creation and defensive security, while Shelbourne have not converted any of their attacking moments. Shelbourne have zero goals from 2.17 xG. They created four big chances across four matches and failed to convert.
Their 32 shots brought six on target and an xG per shot of 0.07. That is a low value profile with little presence close to goal. They have 61 touches in the box and six headers with no goals scored. Their final third passing accuracy of 60.2% show how little control they have in advanced areas.
Palace show stronger output. Six goals from 9.94 xG and thirteen big chances show a regular supply of high-quality attempts. They have taken 19 shots on target and have had 143 touches in the opposition box.
Their attacking process builds sustained pressure and gives them repeat access to good positions. They also show efficiency in duels with 56.7% ground duels won and 56.4% aerial duels won.
Defensive data supports both teams to score No. Palace have allowed only 52 touches in their box. They have faced one fast break shot and six headers. They conceded four goals but remain strong in preventing high value actions close to goal. Shelbourne have faced 95 touches in their box, so they are likely to defend deep again. They also face more fast break danger with five shots against from transitions.
Game state points to Palace control, limited Shelbourne threat and a strong clean sheet chance. A Palace win with only one side finding the net fits the numbers across goals, xG, big chances and box entries.
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