The Top 4 race in Serie A will be at its peak on Monday, when recent leaders Roma host Como, the most unexpected contender for the European spots.
Roma’s phenomenal season start took a wrong turn in recent days, as the Wolves lost back-to-back Serie A matches and dropped to fourth place.
Gian Piero Gasperini’s side displays the most impressive form of defensive football, but it is precisely this passivity that has prevented them from scoring in the last two rounds.
Roma have the toughest defense in the league, conceding just eight goals in 14 rounds, but precisely because of this style, they are also one of the lowest-scoring teams. Until recently, Roma were at the top, even though only five teams have scored fewer goals than them so far.
A year ago, at the same round of the previous campaign, Como were sitting in the relegation zone. But now, they sit three points behind Roma and the Top 4 in Serie A.
The Voltaics had a sensational start with an 11-match unbeaten run, which unfortunately ended with an ugly 4-0 defeat away at Inter last week. Given that Como won points away at Napoli, Atalanta, and Fiorentina already, the Wolves can’t afford to underestimate their guests.
How the bookies view it: They did not underestimate Como
Given Como's form this season, bookmakers have not underestimated them, giving them fair odds to win, although they are, of course, slight underdogs in this match. You can currently back Roma at 23/20, the draw at 21/10, or Como at 27/10.
Recent head-to-head: Home side always wins
With Como being out of the elite for about 20 years, there are only a few H2H meetings we can consider. The teams met twice last season and twice in season 2002/03.
The curious part is that the home side won every time, meaning that both sides have two wins each. Last year, Como won 2-0 at home before losing 2-1 away.
Players to watch: Paz is the reason behind Como's success
As Roma are one of the lowest-scoring sides in the league, it is near impossible to find a solid player pick. Only Matias Soule has more than three Serie A goals this season, but we would rather skip betting real money on him to score.
The situation is similar in Como, and although they’ve scored more than Roma this season, only Nico Paz has made a lasting impression with his five goals and five assists.
Probable line-ups
Roma: Svilar, Mancini, Ndicka, Hermoso, Wesley, Kone, Cristante, Tsimikas, Soule, Pellegrini, Dybala
Como: Butez, Valle, Ramon, Carlos, Posch, La Cunha, Caqueret, Rodriguez, Paz, Addai, Douvikas
Anything else catch the eye?
When it comes to goals, Roma and Como are among the teams whose games have mostly featured one or two goals. Only three of Roma’s matches had 3+ goals, while Como had 3+ in four fixtures.
The statistics for both teams suggest that this clash will be fiercely contested and will probably involve one or two goals, but we have different ideas.
Given that Roma have never kept a clean sheet against Como, we are going to bet on goals. If we are talking about the ultimate winner, we certainly expect it to be the Wolves, but not before Como get on the scoreboard.
Roma tend to score first and then sit back, so there is value in the market for the hosts to score first. When a price looks too good to ignore, that’s value. Learn how to identify it with our Value Betting guide.
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