The Marakana in Belgrade will stage one of the most intriguing ties of the Champions League playoff round when Red Star Belgrade host Cypriot champions Pafos on Tuesday night. Both sides are chasing a place in the group stage, with Red Star aiming to build on their history in the competition and Pafos hoping to make it for the very first time.
Red Star arrive in excellent shape, unbeaten across their four qualifiers so far. They came through the second qualifying round by seeing off Lincoln Red Imps 6-1 on aggregate, before defeating Lech Poznan 4-2 over two legs. At the domestic level, they have started the new season in familiar fashion, winning all four matches played, scoring 16 goals and conceding only twice. They average of 3.32 goals scored per game highlights their attacking depth. New faces such as Marko Arnautovic and Babicka Shavy have added experience and attacking threat.
Pafos, by contrast, are writing a new chapter in their history. After winning the Cypriot First Division with 82 points, underpinned by the league’s best defensive record of just 21 goals conceded, they have carried that resilience into Europe. They knocked out Maccabi Tel Aviv 2-1 on aggregate before producing a statement 3-0 win over Dynamo Kyiv across two legs. Muamer Tanković has been central, wearing the captain’s armband and dictating play, while David Goldar’s leadership has also been key. Their xPTS return domestically was built on control rather than high scoring, with their xG numbers often modest but efficiently converted.
Form lines show a clear contrast. Red Star are free-scoring and dominant, while Pafos have built their progress on organisation and narrow margins. The Cypriots will also be aware of their struggles away from home in last season’s Conference League, where they lost four times. Red Star, meanwhile, have regularly blown sides away in Belgrade, helped by the atmosphere of a packed Marakana. With one side carrying pedigree and the other carrying momentum, it makes for a fascinating clash under the floodlights.
How the bookies view it: Hosts heavy favourites
Red Star are priced at 7/10 to win at home, which implies just under a 60% chance of victory, while both the draw and a Pafos upset are available at 13/4, each around a 23% probability. In the goals markets, over 2.5 goals is 8/11 and both teams to score is also 8/11, reflecting expectations of an open contest. The prices highlight the contrast in profiles: Red Star are consistently free scoring, with most of their games going over the goals line, while Pafos have built their European run on defensive organisation and three clean sheets in four qualifiers.
Head to Head: First meeting
This will be the first meeting between these two sides.
Players to watch: Duarte at the double
Bruno Duarte has started the new campaign in prolific form, making him a strong candidate in the anytime goal scorer market against Pafos. Across all competitions this season, he has played six matches for Red Star, scoring five goals and providing one assist in just 389 minutes of football. That works out at a direct goal contribution every 65 minutes.
In the Champions League qualifiers, Duarte has found the net three times in four appearances, including decisive goals in both legs against Lincoln Red Imps and the opener in the away win at Lech Poznan. He was withdrawn after 57 minutes of the second leg with the tie already in Red Star’s control at 4-2 on aggregate, which shows he is trusted to start key fixtures but will often be substituted once the game is safe. From a betting perspective, that reduces the window for him to score but also underlines his role as an early impact player.
Domestically, he has also been efficient. In just 96 league minutes, he has scored twice and converted two penalties, highlighting both his reliability from the spot and his ability to make the most of limited playing time. With Cherif Ndiaye leading the line, Duarte often benefits from space created in wide and half spaces, while his penalty duty only adds to his appeal in goal scorer markets.
Given his form, efficiency, and role as a consistent starter in Europe, backing Duarte to score anytime looks a solid angle. Even if he is substituted around the hour mark, his record shows he rarely needs 90 minutes to deliver.
Predicted line-ups
Red Star (4-2-3-1): Matheus, Seol, Veljkovic, Rodrigo, Tiknizyan, Krunic, Elsnik, Olayinka, Babicka, Duarte, Ndiaye
Pafos (4-4-2): Michael, Pileas, Goldar, Orsic, Tankovic, Luckassen, Sunjic, Dragomir, Rodrigues, Joao Pedro, Bruno
Anything else catch the eye?
Backing Red Star to score over 1.5 goals looks a logical angle given the weight of evidence behind their attacking numbers. They were the most prolific side in Serbia last season, hitting 123 goals in 37 league matches at an average of 3.32 per game. They also recorded over 2.5 team goals in 68% of those fixtures. Importantly, they do not rely on one outlet. Across their squad, seven players reached double figures for goal contributions last season, and that spread of threat has continued into this campaign.
Shot data is equally compelling. Red Star averaged over 16 shots per game domestically in 2024/25, converting 7.2 on target. In Europe this season, they fired 24 shots across two legs against Lech Poznan, generating more than 3.0 expected goals over the tie. They also created six big chances across those matches, which underlines their ability to carve out high-quality opportunities.
At the Marakana in particular, goals tend to flow. Last season’s Champions League group stage saw them put five past Stuttgart and two against PSV, while earlier qualifying campaigns have regularly featured three or more. The weight of crowd support, coupled with their high pressing game, often forces opponents into mistakes.
Pafos arrive with a strong defensive record, but they conceded over 0.8 expected goals per match even during their title-winning league campaign. In the Cypriot Conference League run last season they allowed 2.5 xGA at Lugano and 3.3 away at Monaco, numbers that suggest Red Star will get chances. Given the Serbian side’s firepower, over 1.5 team goals looks well within reach.
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