We've invited our very own Greg Browning to tell us his secrets when it comes to profiting from the corners market when betting on corners.
I’ve written a few betting guides over the years and it’s great to be back with a guide on probably one of my favourite betting markets, especially over the last 12 months; Team Corners.
Betting on corners isn’t anything new but with data much more readily available from a host of different platforms it’s a market that the bookies often struggle to price, and punters can take advantage of that.
When the world changed for all of us, almost a year ago to the day, Belarus was the only country where football was still being played so I made a decision to get stuck in and started tracking cards and corner performance. After a few weeks, we started recording a weekly Belarusian Podcast and the rest as they say is history.
As the season progressed it was clear the bookies really struggled when it came to team corners. Teams were often priced based on their league position rather than their corner numbers and I fully exploited that.
Team corners has become a massive favourite of mine and has probably been one of my most profitable markets over the last 12 months. Here I'm going to explain why and how you can benefit.
Bookies Get It Wrong
I’ve already mentioned this but unlike goal and WDW markets, corners is much harder for bookies to price and you get some terrific value if you look hard enough and know what you are looking for. My checklist includes;
- A side who are underdogs to the win the match
- They regularly hit 4-5 corners a game
- The side they are playing against concede corners regularly
- They're in good form coming into the game
A good example was Hamilton's visit to Aberdeen recently:
Hamilton were 6/1 outsiders, had been on a positive run of results, have been hitting some really good numbers in terms of corners (5/9/6/8 in their last four and a high % of their games have seen 4+ corners this season plus they were playing an Aberdeen side who were really toiling.
They were priced as big as 6/4 to hit over 3.5 corners
It was a terrific price for a really low corner line and when the bookie's price this, they aren’t factoring in Hamilton’s corners performances, they are basing it on Hamilton’s price to win the match.
✍️ For regular tips on corner betting join Greg's Private Telegram Channel here
A high priced team usually means a generous corners line. By that, I mean odds of around evens for a relatively low number of corners e.g. over 3.5.
Dundee Utd at home to Celtic was another good recent example. They were 6/5 to deliver just 4 corners and again it appeared they were priced based purely on being 7/1 outsiders.
Team corners have been a real niche on my private Telegram channel and we continue to exploit the bookie's laziness and inability to properly price up team corners – definitely a market we can have an edge over the bookies.
Making Sense of Corners Data
There are various data sources available but by far the best, in my opinion, is http://thestatsdontlie.com
They provide a terrific set of stats for each:
- Total corners for
- Total corners against
- Total match corners
- A corners league table
- Avg per game
- All split by home and away
The holy grail though is that you can go into each team and it will show you all of their matches and shows:
- Corners for and against
- Split by first half /second half/total
- Split by home / away / total
It’s an absolute must as it allows you to quickly and easily check a club's corner performances.
Exploring Corners Markets
It’s not just team corners though, there are a number of other markets outside of the obvious over and under.
- Most corners
- Total corners each half
- Handicap -1 -2
You can always look at the clubs that are hitting big numbers, teams like Man City, Rangers etc. but their markets are set ridiculously high, you need 8-9 corners just to get an even-money shot.
I much prefer finding a side that just need to hit 3-4 corners for us to get evens.
Let’s be honest, any side has the ability to hit 4 corners and its a proven approach that has paid dividends for me and my private channel.
The Science Behind Betting on Corners
Don't get me wrong, like every bet you need a bit of luck when betting on corners and like every other betting market, stats and trends are usually a good indicator of which bets to consider but there are other factors you should investigate when betting on corners.
How a team sets-up can have a huge bearing on its corner count. For example, teams that prefer to play with wingers, especially ones that still practice the dying art of getting to the by-line, can produce high corner counts due to their higher number of cross attempts.
Similarly, teams that do well from set-pieces, with players getting on to balls into the opposition box, tend to do well with corners too – there's no better opportunity to win a corner than from a corner! And I love nothing more than a run of two or three corners in a row.
Shots-on-goal stats can also be a good indicator. It stands to reason that the more shots a team has per game the more shots will be deflected or parried away for a corner so look out for teams that buck the trend of having more shots than their league position implies.
So that's my guide to betting on corners, if you've not tried it yet I hope this gives you some ideas to get started. Best of luck, Greg.