The Champions League quarterfinals kick off with a match that deserves to be a final—namely, the most-played match in the tournament’s history: Real Madrid vs. Bayern Munich.
Both giants struggled in their matches over the weekend. Real Madrid suffered a loss to Mallorca, despite Alvaro Arbeloa fielding his best available players.
Bayern Munich pulled off a stunning comeback from 2-0 down to win 3-2 with two goals in stoppage time. The difference here was that Vincent Kompany gave some of his stars less playing time, bringing them on only in the second half.
So it is fair to say that the Bavarians have been thinking about the Champions League a bit more, given their better position in their domestic league than Real Madrid’s in theirs.
In terms of overall form, Bayern Munich has maintained the highest level for much longer. Real Madrid had five consecutive wins before losing to Mallorca, but they now have three losses in their last 10 matches.
The Bavarians haven’t lost since late January or in a total of 13 consecutive matches (W11, D2). Additionally, we should note that they’ve been far more prolific than their renowned opponents.
How the bookies view it: Real Madrid are underdogs at home
How often do we see Real Madrid as underdogs at the Santiago Bernabéu? We can’t recall the last time this happened, but that’s exactly how the bookmakers view Tuesday’s match.
Currently, you can back Real Madrid at 19/10, while Bayern Munich are available at 23/20. Draws have been fairly common between these teams in the past, so you can back that option at 31/10.
Recent head-to-head: Los Blancos eliminated the Bavarians in 2024
As we mentioned at the beginning, this is the most-played match in the history of European club competitions, and this will be the 29th match between Real Madrid and Bayern Munich in UEFA competitions.
And as we also mentioned, quite a few matches have ended in draws after 90 minutes of regulation time. It’s worth noting that Real Madrid have lost only one of their last eight matches in regulation time.
Most recently, they faced off in the 2024 semifinals, with Real Madrid winning their home match and the game in Munich ending 2-2.
Players to watch: Mbappe averages a goal per hour
There are too many valid options in the two squads, which is good overall, but it also makes the decision harder. Kylian Mbappe is the obvious choice with his 13 goals in nine UCL games this season. He averages a Champions League goal per 56 minutes.
If Harry Kane is not available, we’d look at Michael Olise and Lennart Karl. The Frenchman averages a goal contribution per UCL match and has 16 goals and 25 assists overall this season. As for Karl, he won Bayern the match against Freiburg, and we should see him again on Tuesday.
Probable line-ups
Real Madrid: Lunin, Alexander-Arnold, Rudiger, Huijsen, Carreras, Valverde, Tchouameni, Pitarch, Guler, Mbappe, Vinicius Jr.
Bayern Munich: Neuer, Stanisic, Upamecano, Tah, Laimer, Kimmich, Goretzka, Olise, Gnabry, Diaz, Jackson
Anything else catch the eye?
There is little doubt that Bayern Munich currently has the strongest team in the world, but that does not guarantee success. Especially against Real Madrid, anything can happen.
We believe that, in any case, we will see plenty of goals. The last seven matches between the two teams have featured goals at both ends plus over 2.5.
In principle, we believe the Bavarians will advance after the two legs, but their success in this first one depends on many factors.
If Harry Kane returns from injury, we can expect the best. If he’s not match-fit, however, we’d be more inclined to bet on a draw.
Alternatively, we’ll be looking at the corner markets. Given the attacking styles and capabilities of the two squads, we can expect 90 minutes of action, which often leads to many corners in their H2Hs.
When a price looks too good to ignore, that’s value. Learn how to identify it with our Value Betting guide.
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