Nottingham Forest and Leeds United meet at the City Ground for the second time in four days on Tuesday with kick-off at 8pm. Leeds won Saturday's league fixture 1-0, giving Oliver Glasner's side an immediate opportunity to respond against the same opposition.
The weekend meeting was tight and decided by one moment of individual quality. Anton Stach curled a direct free-kick beyond Matz Sels with two minutes remaining after Forest had struck the woodwork twice, Igor Jesus headed wide and Harry Wilson had an early goal ruled out for offside on his Leeds debut.
It was also a difficult first match for Glasner, who became Forest's fifth manager in less than a year following the dismissal of Vitor Pereira. Owner Evangelos Marinakis highlighted Glasner's previous success with Crystal Palace when making the appointment, including his FA Cup, Conference League and Community Shield victories.
Forest used Glasner's preferred back three on Saturday, with Nikola Milenkovic, Murillo and Cunha forming the defensive line. That shape should remain despite widespread personnel changes for a second fixture within four days.
Leeds supported Daniel Farke with a combined £80m investment in James Trafford, Wilson and Tarik Muharemovic, with all three starting at the City Ground. Wilson arrived after producing 10 goals and seven assists for Fulham last season and was unfortunate not to score on his debut.
Forest lost Elliot Anderson to Manchester City during the summer, creating a significant gap in central midfield. Ibrahim Sangare and James McAtee were asked to fill that space against Leeds, although neither gave Forest the same control Anderson previously provided.
How the bookies view it
Forest remain 6/5 favourites despite Saturday's defeat, implying a 45.5% chance of winning. Leeds are 9/4 at 30.8%, while the draw is priced at 5/2 and carries an implied probability of 28.6%.
Both teams to score is 7/10, implying 58.8%, with both teams to score no available at 6/5 and carrying an implied probability of 45.5%.
Over 2.5 goals is priced at 17/20, implying 54.1%, while under 2.5 is available at 1/1 and carries a 50% probability. Both goals markets remain closely balanced despite the short turnaround and Saturday's low-scoring meeting.
Head to head: Very little between these two sides
This is the second meeting between Forest and Leeds in four days following the visitors' 1-0 victory at the weekend. The longer record is also closely matched, with Forest winning six of the previous 14 meetings compared with five for Leeds, alongside three draws.
Leeds have won three of the past four encounters. The exception was Forest's 3-1 victory at the City Ground in November 2025.
Player to watch: Anton Stach quickly becoming Leeds star player
Anton Stach decided Saturday's meeting with a late direct free-kick, continuing a strong record from outside the penalty area. He has scored five goals from outside the box since the start of last season, more than any other player in the league, including four direct free-kicks.
Stach also featured in 28 of Leeds' 29 league matches last season and operated in four different positions. He played mainly in central midfield but was also used as an attacking midfielder, holding midfielder and on the right, contributing three assists alongside his five goals.
That versatility gives Farke several options if he rotates his midfield. Any Forest foul within shooting distance will also carry greater danger after Stach's match-winning contribution at the weekend.
Forest's attacking focus will depend on who Glasner selects to lead the line. Heavy rotation is expected, while the midfield remains unsettled following Anderson's departure.
Predicted line-ups
Nottingham Forest (3-4-2-1): Victor; Abbott, Diomande, Murillo; Aina, Schlager, Dominguez, Netz; Hutchison, Hudson-Odoi; Wood.
Leeds United (3-4-2-1): Trafford; Elvedi, Bijol, Muharemovic; Justin, Byram, Stach, Longstaff; Ramazani, James; Nmecha.
Anything else catch the eye?
The main bet is the draw at 5/2, implying a 28.6% chance. Saturday's result was decided by Stach's free-kick rather than a clear difference between the teams, while the underlying numbers showed how evenly matched the contest was.
Forest generated 0.88 non-penalty xG compared with Leeds' 0.75, a difference of only 0.13. Leeds produced the stronger xG on target figure at 0.63 against Forest's 0.34, showing their attempts were struck more effectively, but neither side consistently created clear openings from open play.
Much of the threat came through set pieces, with Forest hitting the woodwork twice and Leeds eventually scoring from a direct free-kick. That suggests both teams found it difficult to break the other down through sustained attacking play.
The short turnaround adds another reason to expect a close rematch. Glasner is still introducing a new system after only one match in charge, while Forest are adapting to the loss of Anderson in midfield. Leeds are also integrating three expensive summer signings into Farke's established structure.
Rotation should reduce the quality available to both managers, with the teams playing again only three days after a competitive and physically demanding league meeting. Neither weakened side looks significantly stronger than the other.
The goals markets support a competitive game without pointing clearly towards a high or low total. Both teams to score is rated at 58.8% and over 2.5 goals at 54.1%, leaving limited separation from the corresponding no and under prices.
Forest deserve narrow favouritism because of home advantage, but Saturday's performance did not show a meaningful gap between the sides. Leeds also have the stronger recent head-to-head record, while Forest should benefit from the immediate opportunity to adjust after losing the first meeting.
The draw at 5/2 provides the strongest option in a fixture where the teams produced almost identical non-penalty xG, struggled to create from open play and are expected to rotate heavily. This remains a moderate-conviction selection because team changes introduce uncertainty, but the price looks fair against a contest likely to be decided by small margins.
GambleAware