Nottingham Forest v Burnley
Nottingham Forest

Nottingham Forest vs Burnley

, KO: 14:00 , City Ground
Burnley

Nottingham Forest will look to boost their survival hopes on Sunday afternoon as they welcome relegation rivals Burnley to the City Ground.

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Nottingham Forest stretched their unbeaten run in the Premier League to four matches last weekend as they came from a goal down to draw 1-1 at home to Champions League-chasing Aston Villa.

That result moved Vitor Pereira’s men three points clear of the relegation zone, and they’ll view this clash as an ideal opportunity to move further clear of the drop zone.

The Tricky Trees also secured their spot in the semi-finals of the Europa League on Thursday night, as a 1-0 win at home against 10-man Porto saw them defeat the reigning Primeira Liga leaders 2-1 on aggregate.

Burnley’s hopes of survival are all but over, as they currently sit 12 points adrift of safety with just six games to play following their 0-2 defeat at home to in-form Brighton last weekend.

Scott Parker’s visitors have now picked up a solitary point from their last five Premier League outings (W0-D1-L4), as well as winning just one of their past 23 league matches (W1-D7-L15).

How the bookies view it: Forest favourites

As expected, Nottingham Forest have been installed as favourites to pick up all three points on Sunday, with bet365 pricing a home success at just 1/2.

Burnley are 6/1 underdogs to claim just their second Premier League victory from their last 24 outings, whilst the draw is 16/5.

Head to head: Tight encounters between the pair

Two of the previous three Premier League meetings between these two sides have finished in a 1-1 draw – including the reverse fixture at Turf Moor in September – with Forest edging the other clash 1-2 on the final day of the 2023/24 season.

Players to watch: More magic from Morgan?

Morgan Gibbs-White was the hero against Porto on Thursday night, as his deflected strike was enough to seal Forest’s place in the last four of the Europa League.

The ex-Wolves man has now scored 12 times for Forest in all competitions this season – including in three of his previous five Premier League appearances – and appeals at 5/6 at bet365 to Score or Assist.

Backed a player to find the net? Check our Goalscorer Betting guide to see how the markets work and where to find value.

Predicted line-ups:

Nottingham Forest will be without the injured John Victor, Willy Boly, Nicola Savona, and Callum Hudson-Odoi

Burnley are expected to be missing the injured Axel Tuanzebe, Connor Roberts, Jordan Beyer, Josh Cullen, Hannibal and Zeki Amdouni.

Nottingham Forest: Sels, Aina, Milenkovic, Murillo, Williams, Sangare, Anderson, Ndoye, Gibbs-White, Hutchinson, Jesus

Burnley: Dubravka, Humphreys, Esteve, Ekdal, Hartman, Ward-Prowse, Luis, Ugochukwu, Edwards, Anthony, Flemming

🔍 X-pert tip from The Betting Desk
Don't know your xG from your xP? We've got you covered with our data-led X-pert tip!

MFT's X-pert tip: Forest win

Nottingham Forest host Burnley with the away side carrying the weakest profile in the league.

Burnley rank bottom across key metrics, including 0.77 NPxG and 1.86 NPxGA away, and they have won 0.0% of their away xG battles. Their process shows low attacking output and consistent defensive exposure, conceding 16.63 shots and 5.44 shots on target per game away.

Forest are not dominant, but they are competitive at home with 1.24 NPxG and stronger shot volume. Across the last eight, Burnley sit 20th for xG and xPTS, while also allowing high big chance volume. Forest’s home numbers show enough control to take advantage of that.

With Burnley struggling to sustain pressure or create chances, this sets up as a game where Forest should dictate territory and convert that into a win.

Anything else catch the eye?

As mentioned above, Nottingham Forest come into this clash unbeaten in their last four Premier League outings and will be buoyed after advancing to the Europa League semi-finals on Thursday night.

You’ve got to fancy Forest to claim all three points here, but I’m not expecting it to be a classic, with only rock-bottom Wolves (24) scoring fewer goals in the Premier League this season than Vitor Pereira’s hosts.

Therefore, I’m happy to combine a home win with under five match goals, which pays 4/5 at bet365.

Nottingham Forest vs Burnley Betting Tips & Predictions
Nottingham Forest to Win & Under 4.5 Goals
4/5
Bet365
Morgan Gibbs-White to Score or Assist
5/6
Bet365
Further Reading
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All betting odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.

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