Napoli vs AC Milan
, KO: 19:00 , King Saud University Stadium
Napoli and Milan set on a long journey to Saudi Arabia to compete in the semifinals of Supercoppa Italiana. The symbolic hosts have not won this trophy in over a decade, while the Rossoneri are chasing a second consecutive title.
The chance to win a trophy is exactly the motivation Napoli need after two consecutive defeats last week. The loss to Benfica dealt a serious blow to their ambitions of qualifying ahead in the Champions League, while the even more unexpected loss to Udinese sent them down to third place in the battle for the Scudetto.
AC Milan also slipped up in Serie A over the weekend, allowing Sassuolo to steal a point at San Siro. This allowed city rivals Inter to climb to the top of the table, with Milan remaining one point behind them.
Given how fierce the title race is likely to be, winning the Super Cup is a must for the Rossoneri, especially after they were knocked out of the Coppa Italia and are not participating in any UEFA competitions.
How the bookies view it: Equal chances to qualify
Given the neutral location and preliminary expectations, bookmakers were unable to distinguish between the two teams' chances.
Overall, Milan has a slight advantage at 17/10, while Napoli is available at 19/10. The draw is rated almost equally at 2/1, which means that expectations are set for an even match.
Recent head-to-head: Recent history favours AC Milan
Over the past few seasons, we have seen mostly home wins in the matches between Napoli and Milan, but in this case, this factor will have no effect.
However, we should mention that Milan have had better results in the last 10 meetings, leading with five wins to three. They also won the first meeting between the teams this season in Milan (2-1).
An interesting fact is that the Rossoneri have scored the first goal in six of the last eight H2Hs.
Players to watch: Pulisic can be world class when fit
Both managers will not have their best squads available, with key attacking players missing on both ends. And overall, the last few weeks have been slow for both sides’ attackers, and we can’t highlight anyone’s performance.
In all fairness, betting on Christian Pulisic seems like the most logical option, as the 27-year-old American has been Milan’s best player this season when fit. He scored a brace in just 25 minutes on the pitch last week against Torino.
Probable line-ups
Napoli: Milinkovic-Savic, Beukema, Rrahmani, Buongiorno, Di Lorenzo, Lobotka, McTominay, Spinazzola, Neres, Hojlund, Lang
AC Milan: Maignan, Tomori, De Winter, Pavlovic, Saelemaekers, Loftus-Cheek, Modric, Rabiot, Bartesaghi, Pulisic, Nkunku
Anything else catch the eye?
Matches played in Saudi Arabia, whether it's the Italian or Spanish Super Cup, are usually quite high-scoring. We expect both managers to field their strongest lineups, so we can afford to bet on BTTS. A scoreline in the range of 1-1 and 2-2 sounds fitting.
Statistically speaking, betting on corners also seems like a good choice, but only if the bet is for an under. The last five clashes between the two teams all ended with under 11 corners.
Milan's last six games also had under 11, while Napoli have had no more than 10 corners in 10 consecutive games in all competitions.
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