Montenegro bring their Group L campaign to a close on Monday night when they host leaders Croatia in World Cup qualifying. The game takes place in Podgorica and arrives with both teams heading in very different directions.
Croatia sit top of the group with 19 points and have already secured their spot at the 2026 World Cup. Montenegro are fourth with no route to progress after falling short in every meeting with the stronger nations.
Their campaign has been shaped by a stark split in results. The wins came against Gibraltar and the Faroe Islands, with Montenegro recording 66% possession in both Gibraltar fixtures and 60% away against the Faroes. Those matches allowed them to carry territory, but the step up has been far more challenging.
They lost twice to Czechia by 2-0 score lines and were beaten 4-0 away to Croatia in September, a match where they had only 25% of the ball and struggled to escape pressure.
Their defensive numbers reflect it with 14 goals conceded and an xGA of 12.0. Their attacking return sits at six goals, but none have come across the four fixtures against Croatia and Czechia.
Croatia arrive with one of the most complete statistical profiles in qualifying. They have six wins and one draw, scoring 23 goals and conceding just two. Their xG of 22.5 highlights sustained attacking quality, while 41 big chances created and 348 touches in the box (the second highest by any nation in qualifying) underline how often they enter dangerous areas.
Their earlier 4-0 win over Montenegro came through 75% possession and a steady flow of high-value chances. They backed that up with a 3-1 win over the Faroe Islands and a controlled 0-0 draw away in Czechia.
With Croatia already qualified and Montenegro unable to advance, the motivations may differ, but the gulf in consistency, chance creation and defensive strength remains clear going into Monday’s match.
How the bookies view it: Montenegro big outsiders
Montenegro are big outsiders at 9/1, which gives them an implied probability of 10%. That price reflects how difficult this qualifying campaign has been for them and the way they struggled in every meeting with the top two.
The draw is 9/2, converting to an implied chance of 18%. That points to a scenario where Montenegro limit Croatia for long spells, but their defensive numbers suggest that would be a major challenge.
Croatia are strong favourites at 4/11, an implied probability of 73%. They sit top of the group with 19 points, have already qualified and have produced one of the strongest underlying profiles in European qualifying.
For goals, over 2.5 is 7/10, suggesting an implied probability close to 59%. Both teams to score is 21/20, which equates to roughly 49%. Those lines show that the market leans towards a game with some scoring, but Montenegro’s record against top opposition with zero goals in four matches against Croatia and Czechia keeps the expectation of both teams to score almost even.
Overall, the prices show strong confidence in a Croatia victory, moderate potential for goals and limited belief in Montenegro’s ability to contribute on the scoreboard.
Head to Head: Only one previous meeting in recent history
Croatia and Montenegro have met only once in recent history, and that game ended in a dominant 4-0 win for Croatia during this qualifying campaign.
The match in Zagreb quickly showed the difference between the sides, with Croatia controlling possession, moving the ball with confidence and creating chances at a level Montenegro could not match.
Players to watch: Perisic still a huge threat
Ivan Perisic’s qualifying campaign shows a consistent pattern of end-product and a reliable level of involvement in Croatia’s attacking phases, which makes 1+ shot on target a sensible and well-backed angle. He has played seven matches in the group and produced eight shots on target from 17 attempts, hitting the target in five of those seven games.
His strongest performances came in Croatia’s more dominant fixtures. In the 4-0 win over Montenegro earlier in the campaign, he delivered six shots with three on target and was heavily involved throughout.
That match is the best guide to this upcoming fixture, as it shows both how Croatia approach this opponent and how Perišić finds space around the box against sides who struggle to defend wide areas or sustained possession.
Even when used in different roles, the shot profile remains stable. Whether operating as an attacking midfielder, wide left or drifting into central pockets, he consistently finds shooting positions. His average of 1.1 shots on target per match is a strong baseline, especially given Croatia’s ability to dominate territory and their habit of producing high shot volume against weaker sides.
With Croatia carrying far more attacking quality and Perisic registering an SOT in most of his appearances, 1+ shots on target align clearly with both his individual pattern and the likely match script.
Predicted line-ups
Montenegro (3-4-3) : Nikic; Marusic, Tuci, Sipcic, Perovic; Jankovic, Adzic, Bulatovic, Vukotic; Osmajic, Krstovic
Croatia (4-2-3-1): Livakovic; Gvardiol, Vuskovic, Stanisic; Perisic, Marco Pasalic, Modric, Mario Pasalic, Sucic; Kramaric, Musa
Anything else catch the eye?
The splits between these sides across qualifying point firmly towards Croatia winning, Croatia scoring two or more and Montenegro being kept to a low total. Their first meeting finished 4-0 to Croatia, and the underlying numbers throughout the group support a similar pattern here.
Croatia’s attacking metrics are among the best in Europe. They have 23 goals from an xG of 22.5, along with 41 big chances and 348 touches in the opposition box. Only Norway have entered the area more often. Croatia have scored three or more in five of their seven qualifying games, and their structure in possession consistently forces pressure.
That profile makes over 1.5 Croatia goals a strong play, especially when paired with Montenegro’s defensive record. Montenegro have conceded 14 goals and allowed 12.0 xGA, and they have taken heavy defeats against Croatia, Czechia and even the Faroe Islands, where they lost 4-0 despite having 60% of the ball.
Croatia to win fits the same theme. They have a record of W6-D1-L0 and have already qualified, but their performances have remained consistent. They beat Czechia 5-1 at home, won 7-0 in Gibraltar and handled Montenegro with 75% possession and control in the first meeting. Montenegro have lost all four matches against the top two without scoring and offer little threat in these higher-level games.
Montenegro under 1.5 goals completes the bet. Their attacking return of six goals is heavily weighted towards the bottom sides, and they have failed to score against Croatia or Czechia across all meetings. Croatia’s defensive record is elite with only two goals conceded and an xGA of 4.0.
Across all angles form, xG, xGA, chance creation and head-to-head patterns this combination is strongly supported.
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