Relegation-threatened Metz will face the ultimate Ligue 1 challenge when they host champions PSG, who are in a similarly desperate need for points, but for a completely different reason.
Metz’s return to the elite hasn’t gone as planned so far and the team may find itself relegated again, unless they improve a little bit of everything. With 10 defeats in 15 rounds and the worst defence by a mile, the Maroons need a miracle to prevent PSG from claiming the three points.
The champions find themselves in an unusual position chasing Lens at the top after losing their recent derby with Monaco. For once, PSG have a worthy adversary, although few people expect Lens to maintain this form and pace until the end of the season.
The Parisians played a tough game away in Spain midweek and failed to beat Athletic Bilbao, who never left their half in 90 minutes. This was one of a few unusual performances this season, where PSG couldn’t score despite their capabilities.
One could say they have been a hit or miss this season. The week prior, they scored five goals to Tottenham and couldn’t score to Monaco. Then, they scored five goals to Rennes and couldn’t find the net against Bilbao.
On a good day, the Parisians are in a league of their own, but they have had plenty of bad days in recent months.
How the bookies view it: Naturally one-sided
Bookmakers aren’t considering Metz’s chances even remotely, giving PSG an enormous betting advantage ahead of this clash. You can currently back the hosts at 9/1, while PSG are available at just 1/4.
You can also opt for a draw at 11/2, although you’ll probably think twice when you see the H2H stats.
Recent head-to-head: 15 in a row for the Parisians
Metz’s fans would probably prefer not to talk about their team’s results against the champions and it is understandable. The Maroons have lost the last 15 H2Hs in a row, all the way back to 2007. In fact, their last win over this rival goes back to 2005.
Even worse, seven of the last 10 H2Hs had PSG win by 2+ goal margins. One more defeat to the champions, and Metz will tie the all-time league record for most consecutive defeats to the same opponent.
Players to watch: Kvaratskhelia is the best of the rest
Surprisingly, there isn’t a single PSG player among the Top 10 goalscorers in Ligue 1 after 15 games, and this shows the main problem for Luis Enrique this season. Ousmane Dembele’s absence had taken its toll, but the real issue is that there isn’t a world-class goalscorer among the rest of the team.
However, the positive is that the whole squad has taken part in the scoring process, with 16 different players netting at least once in the league. Out of all, Khvicha Kvaratskhelia has had the biggest impact lately, with three goal contributions across his last three Ligue 1 appearances.
Probable line-ups
Metz: Fischer, Colin, Gbamin, Yegbe, Ballo-Toure, Deminguet, Traore, Sabaly, Hein, Tsitaishvili, Diallo
PSG: Safonov, Zaire-Emery, Zabarnyi, Pacho, Mendes, Neves, Vitinha, Ruiz, Barcola, Ramos, Kvaratskhelia,
Anything else catch the eye?
While Metz are bottom of the league, their home performances have been quite peculiar. They have conceded 27 goals in eight away games this season, but only seven in their seven games at home.
In fact, their home games have featured the league-low 1.7 goals per match. This means that even PSG may need to work hard to find the net, and we expect a similar match to the one against Bilbao.
We expect Metz to spend the 90 minutes in their own half, so BTTS-No seems like the best option. As for PSG’s output, we expect two or three goals max, so be careful with the goal markets.
Think both sides will find the net? Our BTTS Masterclass explains how to spot the fixtures where goals are a given.
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